11/24/04 FCST: OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST

[mikegeukes]

Moderate risk out according to the latest Day 1 for southeast Illinois, southern Indiana, northern Kentucky, southwest Ohio.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Feel free to post your discussions below.

Mike

 

[Ryan Chandler]

Southern 1/2 of IN

Current RUC forecast has 992mb SFC Low coming right through central Indiana, over Indianapolis. Temps and DPs will be in the upr 50s to 60. Capes and LIs will not be a major factor as they are in the 500-750 range and maybe to -1 or so. Impressive speed and some directional shear from 45-60kt at 850mb to a 65-85 kt at 500mb. Helicity values are forecased into the 250-500 range. I'm in Indy right now, where I live. I'll be checking the updated SPC Day 1's. I will be closely monitoring an area from Bloomington to Bedford to the E/NE. I-65 and I-74 will be very useful. I'm looking for anyone else's opinion as I'm not the best in forecasting, as well as being by myself and needing other people's thoughts. Thanks, good luck to those who go out, and to all a Happy Thanksgiving.

Ryan

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Hopefully this is a ok thing to put in the target area, i felt the need for it to be.

Anyone who plans on chasing today i would like to remind you that the traffic will be horrible due to the holiday. Please use extra caution while you are out on the road.

Oh and there might as well be a now thread for today as red boxes have been out since midnight and cont. to be issured across the gulf coast states.

 

[rdale]

Thanks Jeremy - it seems strange the people don't think to stop for traffic ahead but since they know it's holiday traffic maybe they will?

Anyways I'm always concerned about Ohio Valley severe when things are going so incredible gangbusters in the Gulf Coast region. It seems these things never pan out - and with the dry slot / clearing many hours away I can't imagine there would be the heating necessary for an event like what they are having. Gusty winds and hail yes, but I don't feel the tornado threat is extreme.

- Rob

 

[Jon Miller]

I'm pretty skeptical about today as I doubt if decent clearing will happen very much to initiate convection. I would favor the warm front boundry along the Ohio river in se Indiana to Cincinnati or northern Ky area. -Modest CAPE , strong low, good SRH, fair DP's , good shear and winds are strong but mostly unidirectional and the SPC currently(13z) has a 15% tornado moderate risk for that area - Indy, Louiseville and Cincy HWO's are all mentioning the possibilities of tornados this PM. Back in the 90's. I think 1992, we had a mini tornado outbreak in south/sw Ohio a few days before Thanksgiving - I remember seeing numerous home video on TV newscasts of the storms and the town of Arcanum (nw of Dayton) was heavily damaged . And remember Van Wert(Nov 10)

Jon Miller

 

[Glen Romine]

Doesn't really look like much clearing will be needed (though some is occurring). Dynamic lift will cool the midlevels sufficiently to bring convective temps down to around 60-65 F. Those temps are already in place across northern KY. Low level wind fields are currently pretty weak in this region - but are expected to improve later today. Along the north edge of the Ohio river certainly could see some tornadoes - you don't need large CAPE values - just some buoyancy near the bottom of the profile. The RUC has ~ 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE along the Ohio River later today with 40 knot 0-1 km shear - and that could be enough given the strong dynamic forcing for some low-top supercells. Unfortunately this is in an upper air observation void - so you'll have to trust models and convective behavior - but given the latter this morning in southern IL area - I'd say the threat is real.

Glen

 

[Amos Magliocco]

Well, I'm sitting on the northwest corner of the new WW 903, not because I'm chasing, but because the parallelogram intersects the city of Bloomington. I'm not chasing and don't intend to. Since my application to INCHASE was rejected years ago, I never recieved proper training on how to chase through heavily-forested hill country on narrow, winding roads. Add low-topped storms moving fifty knots or more, and I'm content to watch the sky from here in the coffee shop.

There are some interesting developments, however. In only the last twenty minutes, skies have gone from overcast to mostly cloudy, and the low grunge has cleared to reveal more impressive, thick cu riding the low level jet. Looking at the charts it seems the warm front is moving north at a fair clip. A nearby flag has changed from an east to southeast to more southerly indication over ninety minutes, and I assume the sfc low is approaching or has arrived here in Monroe County.

Wow. As I'm typing this, the sun is emerging for the first time in days!

If this trend continues, areas east and northeast of a Bloomington to Indianapolis line could see some insolation and the potential for some of these small storms to strengthen and rotate. That's no longer the case here as our low-level turning is gone.

Good luck to the forest chasers!

Amos

 

[Glen Romine]

Come on Amos, I'm sure you could keep up with them:

* AT 404 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES WEST OF JONESVILLE...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF SEYMOUR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

A few cells are finally starting to look better, this one in particular obviously.

Glen