1/6/2005: SIGNIFICANT PLAINS/MIDWEST WINTER STORM

[Robert Dewey]

Looks like I'm not the only one thinking this is gonna be a big one:

IF CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH DOESN/T ROB SOME OF THE MOISTURE INFLUX...THEN
WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE 50 MI WIDE SWATH OF 12-16 INCHES NORTH
OF QUAD CITIES FROM HIGHWAY 30 TO HIGHWAY 20. STORM HAS
POTENTIAL TO PACK AS MUCH PUNCH AS THE JAN 1-2 STORM OF 1999.

I really hope things stay on track, and don't start to trend towards the GFS, or else you can kiss the January 2, 1999-like event goodbye...

 

[Dan Cook]

You better not jinx it! :evil:

more on the jan 1 storm:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extrem...blizzard99.html

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
You better not jinx it! :evil:

more on the jan 1 storm:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/extremes/1999/january/blizzard99.html

I sure hope I don't jinx it! I certainly didn't jinx my previous thread on the 12/23 storm for the lucky folks who got over 30 inches, LOL...

While this system looks like it may produce very heavy snowfall amounts, I don't think it will be a big wind maker, so blizzard conditions probably won't be met... Also, there doesn't appear to be a significant blast of true arctic air behind this system as was the case with the Jan 1999 event (where highs barely got above 0F the next day). None the less, the current ETA run does paint a pretty significant and perhaps historic picture as far as snow accumulations and ice accumulations...

 

[Joel Wright]

Right where I am sitting we appear to be right on line between the ice and snow. If we could stay all snow, it would look like we would easily get a foot. However, 850mb temps are above freezing until Wed morning, or about 12-15 hrs after precip onset. This is a bit further north than the earlier runs. So, it looks like we may get half ice, and half snow. I would rather have one or the other. Definitely a very difficult forecast.

It looks like someone out in north-central IA will get more than 20" of high ratio snow.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

well, if the gfs is the farthest south then the 0z gem must be the farthest north. it has a low over indy. at 60 hours and then takes it almost over toledo. That would mean a huge ice storm for metro det. :shock:

Hopefully we, the great lakes region, get a decent snow out of this after losing all of our snowcover to last weeks warmup/storms.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
well, if the gfs is the farthest south then the 0z gem must be the farthest north. it has a low over indy. at 60 hours and then takes it almost over toledo. That would mean a huge ice storm for metro det. :shock:

Hopefully we, the great lakes region, get a decent snow out of this after losing all of our snowcover to last weeks warmup/storms.

The latest 12Z GEM is also the farthest north operational model again, with the 12Z ETA coming in second along side with the NGM. The farthest north out of both operational and mesoscale models would be the 12Z FSL RUC. The 12Z GFS has also trended the QPF axis about 25 miles further north than the 00Z GFS run... So, I would be willing to say that a farther north solution, as far as the QPF is concerned, should be about right. BUT, from the NCEP model bias/performance website, this is said for the GFS:

QPF verification historically better than Eta

Rely more heavily on QPF from GFS - especially beyond 36 hours

 

[Dan Cook]

So how much snow do you think we'll see? 8)

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://grib2.wxcaster.com/wxcaster4/CONUS1...OWFALL_48HR.gif

Man ETA is still painting a nasty picture. Blotches of 15+ at just a 10:1 ratio. Hate to see a 20:1 ratio.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p1...koax/latest.gif

I noticed this interesting boundary on radar returns last night stretching from just north of Omaha(or right on me) clear northeast to more returns. The eta forecast snowfall is tracing that line. The line/boundary is still there this morning. I would expect that line to see the strongest banding and most constant banding.

 

[Bill Schintler]

Eastern Iowa Winter Storm Forecast

Forecast:
Light freezing drizzle has been falling since midnight and will continue to do so throughout the day, with little or no accumulation. Snowfall will start in the Iowa City around 7 PM and Cedar Rapids around 8 PM tonight. It will be heavy between 12 AM and 6 AM, and "thundersnow" will be possible during this period, leading to some very high snowfall rates. Tomorrow, the snowfall will taper off to lighter rates until late in the afternoon at which time heavier snowfall will begin again. The snow should exit the area between 3 AM and 6 AM Thursday morning.

Snowfall amounts:
9" - 12" along and 20 mi either side of a Creston, IA, to Iowa City to Quad Cities line.
6" - 9" along and south of a Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Clinton line.
3"-5" along and south of a Storm Lake to Waterloo line.
South of a Creston to Washington line, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in with lighter snowfall totals. Further south in MO and IL, a very significant ice storm will occur.

Discussion:
At 12Z today, a strong baroclinic zone was noted from SERN OK through SRN MO through SRN IL. Surface low pressure is advertised to develop and ride along this boundary over the next 36 hours in response to a very nice coupled upper-level jet structure as the upper-low in the SWRN states shears out and opens up. The first of a series of shortwaves will approach the upper-midwest this evening, enhancing an area of strong isentropic assent that will be in place during the period. An extended area of deformation zone precipitation will also occur late in the day Wednesday, as a second shortwave approaches. The 12Z Eta initialized well with regard to heights and temperatures in the upper-air data, as well as current precipitation fields. Total storm Eta QPF appears to be around 1.5" along and 50 mi either side of the I-80 corridor. During the first period of heavy precipitation tonight, a 6:1 snow/water ratio will be occur SE of a Muscatine to Bloomfield line with sleet and freezing rain mixing in; while an 8:1 ratio will be found S and E of a Clinton, Iowa City, to Chariton line; a 10:1 ratio will be S of a Dubuque to Des Moines line. Given pockets of elevated instability (MUCAPE), shear, and strong upward motion; convective banding should occur during this period between Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, providing locally higher snowfall rates. Late in the day Wednesday during the second round of heavier snowfall, overall ratios will be higher - on the order of 15:1 along a Clinton to Des Moines line - higher to the north and lower to the south.

- bill

 

[Robert Dewey]

Re: Eastern Iowa Winter Storm Forecast

Originally posted by Bill Schintler
...During the first period of heavy precipitation tonight, a 6:1 snow/water ratio will be occur SE of a Muscatine to Bloomfield line with sleet and freezing rain mixing in; while an 8:1 ratio will be found S and E of a Clinton, Iowa City, to Chariton line; a 10:1 ratio will be S of a Dubuque to Des Moines line. Given pockets of elevated instability (MUCAPE), shear, and strong upward motion; convective banding should occur during this period between Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, providing locally higher snowfall rates. Late in the day Wednesday during the second round of heavier snowfall, overall ratios will be higher - on the order of 15:1 along a Clinton to Des Moines line - higher to the north and lower to the south.

- bill

I would be careful about going as low as 10:1 ratio -- Climatology suggests that a temperature through the column of -6C to -3C in the low levels would yeild a 15 to 1 ratio, not to mention the good snow growth potential/flake size. The last event in the Ohio Valley, which was also a southern stream storm, with a column temperature of -3C to -5C yeilded a 15 to 1 ratio... Howerver, the 8 to 1 looks right for the mixed precipitation areas.

 

[rdale]

Good snowfall ratio site at http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowra...tio/sr_intro.pl says about 10:1 for Mid-Michigan which I'll take...

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead

I noticed this interesting boundary on radar returns last night stretching from just north of Omaha(or right on me) clear northeast to more returns. The eta forecast snowfall is tracing that line. The line/boundary is still there this morning.

I noticed that feature as well (it was visible when the radar was in clear air mode, at least).

I'm prepared for at least 10" here in Bellevue, perhaps more. The question, really, is how much sleet will mix in early this afternoon. Looking at the radar (UEX), the precip shield approaching from the west has a snow appearance along and north of I-80, with a patchy sleet appearance to the south. That meshes pretty well with current surface obs. I have a feeling I'll be in all snow here before too long.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by rdale
Good snowfall ratio site at http://sanders.math.uwm.edu/cgi-bin-snowra...tio/sr_intro.pl says about 10:1 for Mid-Michigan which I'll take...

I have been messing around with that site for awhile now, I found it during the past event. With a 10 to 1 ratio, snow should stick to everything

Hopefully we can get some convective snows, which doesn't look completely out of question... The last time I see lightning and snow was the Jan 1999 event, and then 1996 during a lake effect event near Marquette.

I was looking at some records, and Detroit sets at 24.5 inches set back in April of 1886. The snow was reported to be so wet and heavy, that they had to use crobars and ice picks to "brush" the snow away. I am guessing a 10 to 1 ratio was also used for that storm given the warmer air, and that would be an unheard of 2.45 inches of liquid!

\"Snow began at 12:30 AM and fell light until about 4:30 AM when it began to fall heavy and a tremendous fall of snow continued all day, ending at 9:00 PM. The fall at 7:00 AM was 4.6\" and at 3:00 PM was 17.1\" and at 11:00 PM, 2.4\" making the total of 24.1 inches melted from the snow gauge. The rain gauge was soon snowed full and was practically useless. Total fall of the snow on the level was 24.5 inches. The snow was badly drifted by the heavy gale. The drifts in some places were 12 feet high and the snow in the street was from 10\" to 40\" inches deep. A heavy north gale set in at 1:45 AM and raged in fury all day reaching 40 miles north at 2:15 PM and continued all the remainder of the day. Its force with the snow was appalling. It blew the snow in fine particles against the face, cutting like a knife.\"

Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/1886-1974.htm

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Well, while you guys in Nebraska are deciding how much snow you're going to have to shovel, we are wondering how much ice it will take to knock out our power, lol.

We will most likely be on the "mix" side of things and they're calling for 1/2" to 1" of ice followed by a lovely coating of 1 to 3 inches of snow by tomorrow. The trees are already slouching under the weight of minimal ice cover from the last two nights. Another round of ice will take many trees and powerlines down for sure.

Good news though...I just got word that they are shutting down the University so my office is closing as well. Time to go hall some firewood up to the house in preparation for power outage

Tim

 

[Mike Smith]

In northeast Wichita, just west of KAAO, we have about 1/3 of an inch of ice coating trees. Some branches and even tree limbs down.