1/6/2005: SIGNIFICANT PLAINS/MIDWEST WINTER STORM

[Robert Dewey]

Past couple runs of the ETA have been interesting as far as winter weather is concerned. A large swath of potentially very heavy snows (based on the 00Z ETA) should be extending from IA to southern MI is just north of a very tight baroclinic zone between 48-84 hours, with a nice overrunning event setting up. Temps at 850mb are generally in the -6C to -8C range with deep moisture and strong VV's in the low to mid levels. SFC temps appear to remain in the low to mid 20's for the event duration, and given the local 20:1 snow ratio for the past big event at these temperatures/setup, I would also say this could be a 20:1 ratio. QPF on the ETA is generally above 1 inch, and PWATS just south of the baroclinic zone reach a healthy 1.85 inches (very high for January!), so this could get very interesting!

Looks like the ones who missed out on the last event may get hit big time with this one (Joel, Dan, Me, etc.)...

This event is still a few days out, and I have yet to check the other models, but this certainly gives me high hopes!

 

[Andrew Geil]

Looks like we're gonna get a decent icing down here in Illinois. Oye, and the 60 degree temps were so nice. I knew we were gonna have to pay for it somehow...

 

[Dan Cook]

Dewey, I AM going to hold this to you if it bombs out. :twisted: 8)

 

[Jeff Lawson]

It looks like we'll finally be in for some snow here in eastern Nebraska on Tuesday and Wednesday. Before that, there's the potential for some semi-significant icing tonight. My, how things change in a hurry.

 

[Alex Lamers]

With only 3.9" here officially thus far in Milwaukee for the winter season...we're kind of snow-depressed, the snow lovers anyways. A nice +12 incher would be an effective remedy. Even blending the 00z GFS and ETA amounts would yield about 9-12 inches here. This far out...I like to halve amounts to keep me honest and not get too excited. So 4-6" would make me happy

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Joel Wright]

Originally posted by Dan Cook
Dewey, I AM going to hold this to you if it bombs out. :twisted: 8)

Me too!


It does look like a good snow storm for a lot of us. The temp range from north to south across the conus is very impressive!

 

[Robert Dewey]

Most of the medium range models seem to be agreeing on this system, GFS has been trending towards a deeper and further north solution (compared to the JAN 02 2004 12Z run). The baroclinic zone will be very tight and will make or break this situation...

 

[Joel Wright]

The latest ETA actually has my area getting more freezing rain again. In fact, it would be a rather impressive ice storm, with up to an inch of ice accumulation. Of course this is from just the one run, so I am not putting too much credence into it. Nevertheless this is a very interesting storm. It's nice to have some action again, something to track.

I gotta tell ya, as much as I love springtime storms etc, I really do enjoy tracking these winter storms!

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

Strong words from HPC/NCEP:

IF THE GFS/ETA ARE CORRECT... THE FREEZING RAIN
ASPECT COULD BE VERY SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY HISTORIC.

Unfortunately, I am catching a connecting flight at O'Hare around noon Wednesday. :roll: I hope they have only snow there or it could be a long week!

 

[Chris Hayes]

I'll either be getting freezing rain or snow from this. Neither the ETA or GFS model is exciting me this round. Last night's GFS run showed me in the 6-10" of snow range. That changed today. I'm praying for a good snowstorm. I'm not too optimistic though. The county I live in has a bubble over it preventing anything more than 6" of snow from falling. :? :evil:

 

[Robert Dewey]

Sitting here just north of Detroit, I should get either freezing rain or snow, and alot of whatever one I do get (hopefully)... What I DO NOT want to see, is a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain! LOL

 

[Joel Wright]

Wow, this storm system seems to be getting more and more interesting. What I do like about it is it's longevity. Snow will accumulate well over a foot in the heavy snow swath. And it looks like a fairly wide area will see a long duration icing event with accumulations in excess of an inch! Power crews across the midwest are going to be putting in some OT this week I'm afraid.

Right now the NWS in DVN is calling for mainly snow in my area, however all the models show thickness' above 540 during most of the event. This is going to be a very close call. If this ends up being all ice it will be one incredible storm, one for the record books possibly.

*Okay some of that may have been a little bit of wishcasting...

 

[Robert Dewey]

The 12Z ETA is a bit further south than the 00Z run, and a tad weaker... This actually keeps me in the all snow, but the heavier accumulations would be about 50 miles to my south.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Winter storm watches already being thrown up for areas of the Great Lakes and Midwest, or about 36-42 hours BEFORE the event even starts. NWS offices are taking this storm very seriously, as apparent by the early watches. 18Z ETA looks more like the 06Z ETA, and took a slight jog further north again...

 

[Dan Cook]

WSW issued here.