Andrew Geil
EF3
Well, if yer in northern Illinois, it sounds like yer going to get socked. Down here in the middle and southern parts of the state, it looks like we're just gonna get rained and rained and rained on. Break out the ark.
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1/6/2005: SIGNIFICANT PLAINS/MIDWEST WINTER STORM
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
Carla Bisby
EF4
Same for here in MO although we did get a bit of lightning/thunder
. More heavy rain and slight chance of t-storms through tomorrow but the temps should stay above freezing until tomorrow night. I'm loving the rain...I'm dreading anything frozen that might come our way tomorrow night. The bit of lightning/thunder the other night did help relieve my SDS a bit.Aaron Kennedy
EF5
Doh!!!! Someone has it out for me.... I'm sitting in Rockford... 20min from the WI border and get the car back today with a new transmission (I'm already a week late coming home), and now this! I wanted to see snow, but my break has been ruined as far as getting things done. With all this bad luck.... I'm due for something good to happen (orange bowl anyone!!!).
Aaron
Robert Dewey
EF5
The latest 18Z ETA actually brings the heavy snow into your location by 06Z tomorrow (or tonight rather, depending on how you view it). The ETA breaks precipitation out much sooner, as it has increased it's 700mb RH values and vertical velocity across that region compared to the 00Z and 12Z runs... Someone (or quite a few people) are going to get socked from IA to MI with snow, and then the damaging ice storm a bit further south of that from KS to PA.
EDIT: Wow, I was checking the 12Z ETA for a more in depth review of the mid level features, the ETA shows a very intense and elongated TROWAL setting up from PA westward to IA! Typically, areas near the TROWAL get the heaviest snows, particularly when the column is saturated and good lifting is present. CSI is also looking intense, with a few areas showing low level theta distrotion/decreasing value with height, indicating the possibility of pure convective instability... Again, combined with the frontogenesis and saturated column, things could get real interesting -- Thundersnow anyone?
Robert Dewey
EF5
Just read the latest discussions and it confirms what I thought about the TROWAL and CSI (who's da man?! LOL):
Source: GRR
Obviously I didn't have to post that little quote in here, because people can look it up elsewhere, but I find it extremely important to the current conversation, and well within the constraints of ST guidelines... In addition, many people probably wouldn't look up little ol' Grand Rapids NWS :lol:rdale
EF5
This is the same forecaster that called for up to 3" yesterday and we got 1/2", and the same office that up til just now said we weren't going to get any accums tonight...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Yeah, but at least his analysis of the TROWAL and CSI is correct. As far as accumulations, I can't really say, but the 18Z ETA has beefed up QPF across our region compared to the 12Z run, while keeping cooling the low levels slightly over the extreme southeast portion of the state. I don't think 8-12 inches (and possibly more) is out of the question...
Dan Cook
EF5
lol you're like 30 minutes away from me. 8)
Robert Dewey
EF5
Just wanted to put an update in on the 18Z GFS... The QPF axis has trended slightly to the south, where the ETA has actually trended a bit to the north. Looking at the current NOWRAD and comparing it to the 18Z ETA for the 21Z-00Z timeframe, it appears to be slightly too light with QPF over central IA, where it is currently snowing moderately with visibility around 1/2 mile, and in southern MN, where there is already 2 inches on the ground.
Overall, the ETA depicts the snow across southern MN and IA better than the GFS, but it doesn't do so well with the precipitation over the Ohio Valley. The GFS does a better job over the Ohio Valley, but is over 25 miles too far south, and it's also too light over northern MO.
Dan Cook
EF5
Just started up here; snow's very wet.
Joel Wright
EF5
Well since we don't have a NOW thread for this, and I'm not sure if we would even do that for winter weather, here's my local report..
It's been lightly freezing rain here for the past few hours. The trees and powerlines already had a thin coating of ice (roughly around two tenths) from the freezing rain yesterday. It is coming down pretty good right now. The snow line is about 20-30 miles north of here and is fighting very strong waa. So it looks like it could stay ice here much of the night which would spell big trouble for sure due to the above. My home thermometer reads 31.3° and has remained nearly steady.
It's kind of spooky, just sitting here with music on low I can still here the trees make that crunching sound when the wind blows. Erie...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Wow, I just did a Mapquest for your location, you look like your right on the edge of the rain/snow/mix line... I'm actually surprised your not getting sleet or freezing rain...
Joel Wright
EF5
Hmmm, now I'm starting to wonder. I just checked the latest ob from DVN, which is about 15 miles as the crow flies northwest of me and they are now reporting snow. Now I'm starting to wonder if it's going to switch to snow here much sooner now. I'm going to start losing my hair!rdale
EF5
TAMDAR sounding on a plane that just landed at Quad Cities show max temp of 30* at 8080ft.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Light snow falling near Stoughton (southeast of Madison). MKX gives us a range of 6-14 inches possible over the next 36 hours. Winter storm watch and snow advisory out. Looking forward to perhaps the first decent heavy snowfall in my corner of south-central Wisconsin in several years.
Tonight: Periods of snow, mainly after midnight. Low near 19. North wind between 13 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday: Periods of snow. High near 23. Northeast wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 17. North wind between 9 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possibleSimilar threads
