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1/6/2005: SIGNIFICANT PLAINS/MIDWEST WINTER STORM

Haha, nice pic Aaron.


I haven't looked to see what we've got officially, but it looks like about 3-4". A few more hours of snow left, so we'll probably end up with about 5". I've been more impressed by Alberta clippers....
 
It's been snowing heavily here since 5:00 PM, although it looks to finally let up in the next couple of hours.

Before I shoveled the driveway this afternoon, I measured 8". Just went outside a minute ago and measured a new 6" in the same spot. So, that would bring my storm total here on the south side of Bellevue to 14" so far. Given the snowfall rates and looking at radar, I'm guessing we could pick up another 1-3" before all is said and done. Tonight's snowfall has been VERY productive.
 
LOL Aaron. Man, while you are building forts I was snow blowing a damn long rock driveway. It was a fun couple hours, at first anyway. I have never in my life ran a snow blower. I was always fortunate enough to own shovels. After dragging the thing 70-100 yards from the shed through 1-2 foot piles of snow it got more enjoyable. Why my dad didn't take the thing out of the shed and bring it to the driveway yesterday I haven't a clue, other then knowing he'd just mention it to me incase I "felt motivated". I was bored so I decided to do their driveway and man those things are fun. Was laughing so damn hard shooting the snow up and over the wall in the driveway, I'd guess 20-30 feet high into the air. I was ready to snow blow all of Blair at that point. Anyway here is a pic outside my apt window around 7:30 just now, snowing like mad. Shadow is the lens.

[Broken External Image]:http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpics/d2737.jpg
 
Well, here I sit just north of Detroit with roughly 2.0 - 2.5 inches of snow. It snowed all last night and this morning, and then started again at 5PM ET. The snow has been real powdery and the flakes are very small in size, so it doesn't accumulate well.

The system seems to be developing more precip on the back side (and looks somewhat convective in nature), just to the east of Joel, which would slide through my region. Maybe I will get lucky and get stuck under one of those rare convective snow bands for 8 hours, LOL...

One thing is for sure, this definately wasn't a January 1999 style storm for me!
 
This storm was just an average little snow here. We are just about to be dry slotted and that should end the storm. I have a bit over 4" here. If I would have known this is what we would have got, I wouldn't have even watched the storm.

Just like I said the other day, sometimes you can get stuck in a "lull band." That's exactly what happened here. Heavy bands would approach and litterally evaporate as it neared here. Then a new band of intense snow would form later on on the otherside of us and move on. I guess sometimes luck is not on your side if you want snow.

Oh well, I'm hoping for an Alberta clipper, maybe that will bring some excitement here. :x
 
Originally posted by Joel Wright
This storm was just an average little snow here. We are just about to be dry slotted and that should end the storm. I have a bit over 4\" here. If I would have known this is what we would have got, I wouldn't have even watched the storm.

Just like I said the other day, sometimes you can get stuck in a \"lull band.\" That's exactly what happened here. Heavy bands would approach and litterally evaporate as it neared here. Then a new band of intense snow would form later on on the otherside of us and move on. I guess sometimes luck is not on your side if you want snow.

Oh well, I'm hoping for an Alberta clipper, maybe that will bring some excitement here. :x
Click to expand...

I'll tell ya, one of our biggest snowstorms was an Alberta Clipper. It was last year, I believe, and was the strongest clipper I can remember. I got nearly 12 inches from that storm... Our original forecast called for 2-4 inches, upped to 3-5 inches with a snow advisory, and then quickly switching to a winter storm warning for 8-12 inches (all within 12 hours). What made the storm what it was, was the very high snow ratio of nearly 40 to 1, with QPF only amounting to 0.30 inches or so.
 
Snow is finally coming to an end here. It's still snowing lightly, but I doubt it'll amount to more than an inch before completely ending.

Anyway, my storm total (since the onset of snow Monday afternoon) in Bellevue, NE (Sarpy County) is 17 inches.
 
check, check, .. testing.... It colder than hell .. well It cold here.. .lol
 
Only a little dusting of snow and ice here but a lot of flooding problems starting and the rivers aren't expected to crest until tomorrow. A lot of crazy people trying to drive through flooded roads and getting carried away by the water. This storm set a record for 2005 for having the most precip the first 5 days of Jan here. They're predicting more rain in a few days so that will add to the problem.
 
Re: Eastern Iowa Winter Storm Forecast - Snowfall amounts

Originally posted by Bill Schintler
Forecast Snowfall amounts:
9\" - 12\" along and 20 mi either side of a Creston, IA, to Iowa City to Quad Cities line.
6\" - 9\" along and south of a Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Clinton line.
3\" - 5\" along and south of a Storm Lake to Waterloo line.
South of a Creston to Washington line, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in with lighter snowfall totals. Further south in MO and IL, a very significant ice storm will occur.
- bill
Click to expand...

Official snowfall totals:
Iowa City: 10"
Cedar Rapids: 12"
Clinton: 8"
Waterloo: 10"
Des Moines: 10.1"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/snowfall.shtml

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...all20050106.png

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...0050106Snow.htm

General comments: it looks like some significantly heavier amounts in northeastern IA then forecasted... Alot of banding set up there in the deformation zone, along with much higher snow-to-liquid ratios there - perhaps well above 20:1 in northeastern IA. Also, as far as guidence, it looks like the GFS probably did the best for QPF from for the period 6hr to 24hr before the event, in Iowa. The 12Z Eta (yesterday) still had very high QPF in southeastern IA for the period ending 06Z, which in reality ended up getting dryslotted early in the evening. The GFS was also better for upper low position and strength, main vort max, and UVV's for the same period as these features tracked across IA yesterday evening - bill
 
Re: Eastern Iowa Winter Storm Forecast - Snowfall amounts

Originally posted by Bill Schintler+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Bill Schintler)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Bill Schintler
Click to expand...
Forecast Snowfall amounts:
9\" - 12\" along and 20 mi either side of a Creston, IA, to Iowa City to Quad Cities line.
6\" - 9\" along and south of a Des Moines to Cedar Rapids to Clinton line.
3\" - 5\" along and south of a Storm Lake to Waterloo line.
South of a Creston to Washington line, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in with lighter snowfall totals. Further south in MO and IL, a very significant ice storm will occur.
- bill
Click to expand...

Official snowfall totals:
Iowa City: 10"
Cedar Rapids: 12"
Clinton: 8"
Waterloo: 10"
Des Moines: 10.1"

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/snowfall.shtml

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...all20050106.png

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dvn/WeatherEvents/...0050106Snow.htm

General comments: it looks like some significantly heavier amounts in northeastern IA then forecasted... Alot of banding set up there in the deformation zone, along with much higher snow-to-liquid ratios there - perhaps well above 20:1 in northeastern IA. Also, as far as guidence, it looks like the GFS probably did the best for QPF from for the period 6hr to 24hr before the event, in Iowa. The 12Z Eta (yesterday) still had very high QPF in southeastern IA for the period ending 06Z, which in reality ended up getting dryslotted early in the evening. The GFS was also better for upper low position and strength, main vort max, and UVV's for the same period as these features tracked across IA yesterday evening - bill[/b]
Click to expand...

I would agree about the snow ratios, once the baroclinic zone moved away...

The comma head precipitation was pretty well forecasted by the ETA forecast of a very strong TROWAL at 500-700MB combined with good frontogenesis. Also, the theta surfaces on the cross sections showed good CSI, and in some cases flat out convective instability (decreasing theta with height) through the TROWAL. This combined with the wrap around moisture to allow for some decent banded precipitation to develop.

This event also had alot of dry air working against it... If you were unlucky and got caught in one of the "holes", you ended up with little snow (like me). There was another event last year that had a very similar setup -- Dry high pressure just to the north, and a very moist system to the south -- The original NWS forecast called for 8-12 inches, but then dropped quickly as snow flakes remained very small, and snow never became heavy (ended up with 2-3 inches). I have now learned my lesson, and will be very skeptical of heavy snowstorms if there is a center of high pressure within 500 miles of the area of interest (maybe I will do some case studies on this)...

As for this past event, I ended up with 4.5 inches of powdery snow...
 
9" total at the house in Rockford, IL. Not too shabby since I told my mom 3 days out we could see around 10" of snow lol. She thought I was joking. Just the week before Dr. Mom who thinks she has a metr. phd was telling me about how the climate has changed drastically and Rockford never sees large snows anymore. Haven't heard her say anything else lately ;)

Aaron
 
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