Dan Cook
EF5
Northern IL's in the freezing line?
1/6/2005: SIGNIFICANT PLAINS/MIDWEST WINTER STORM
- Thread starter Robert Dewey
- Start date
Northern IL's in the freezing line?
Robert Dewey
EF5
NGM and ETA have both upped their QPF amounts towards 1.25 inches, at least for my neck of the woods. However, the ETA has also pushed the 850mb 0C isotherm into my neighborhood at 36HRS, and shows some sleet mixing in. I really hope the ETA could slide the 850mb 0C isotherm about 25 miles to the east, because I HATE sleet, it doesn't accumulate well, and kills snow accumulations.
The NGM sets me confortably below freezing in the low levels (the SFC will be in the 20's, no matter what model is used), and would produce more snow -- But, the NGM usually sucks at forecasting thermal profiles, to put it bluntly...
The NGM sets me confortably below freezing in the low levels (the SFC will be in the 20's, no matter what model is used), and would produce more snow -- But, the NGM usually sucks at forecasting thermal profiles, to put it bluntly...
Joel Wright
EF5
Wow. That's some pretty cool info.
And I'm an idiot. I just stepped outside and guess what? Sleet and HUGE flakes of snow are now coming down. And with that, I am done making forecast lmao!!
Well anyway, since the latest (OZ) models all forecast nearly 1.25" of liquid for my immediate area, I guess that means we're going to get a foot of snow now if that verifies.
Obviously this could be overdone, some of that covection to the south could easily cut some of that down. And there's always the possibility in these banding situations to get caught in a "lull band" for quite some time. Which can kill amounts as well.
So basically I'll believe it when I see it. ;-)
Robert Dewey
EF5
Okay, for some reason I was thinking you were in Macomb, IL... Which is above 0C at 850mb. I then seen a post that said Rockford is about 20 minutes north of you, which would actually put you right on the 0C 850mb line, take your pick, LOL
Jeff Lawson
EF3
Originally, it was expected we'd start the event off with some sleet and freezing rain here around Omaha, but when the precip really got going around noon, I saw about two minutes worth of sleet before the snow kicked in. It's been snowing non-stop ever since. Accumulations are only about 2-3" so far, but I DO have a 27" drift inside my patio door. 
Forecast here calls for 10-15" with isolated amounts to 18". That's a lot of snow.
Forecast here calls for 10-15" with isolated amounts to 18". That's a lot of snow.
Dan Cook
EF5
Okay, for some reason I was thinking you were in Macomb, IL... Which is above 0C at 850mb. I then seen a post that said Rockford is about 20 minutes north of you, which would actually put you right on the 0C 850mb line, take your pick, LOL[/b][/quote]
How about NE IL? 8)
David Schuttler
EF5
1 to 1& 1/2 inches of ice predicted for n.w. and n.central oklahoma tonight and wed.
Ben Prusia
EF4
Right now out here in the Kansas City area, we got about a 1/2 inch of ice on the ground here in western Shawnee, the streets have a coating of sleet on it, a slushy kind of sleet. The freezing rain/sleet mix has picked up again and looks like we are in it for the rest of the night, hopefully my power doesn't go out!
looks like the northwestern quadrant of Oklahoma may currently be seeing a repeat of the 1/29/2002 ice storm - thunderstorms are continuing to fire over southeastern NM and the southern TX panhandle and training northeast over the cold air into northwest OK. we could be seeing a lot of mangled trees and brand new power poles across chase country this spring if it's anything like the 2002 storm.
still 35.1 and drizzle here in Norman - hope our trusted force field holds up and keeps the freeze line north of us.
still 35.1 and drizzle here in Norman - hope our trusted force field holds up and keeps the freeze line north of us.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
Am anticipating fairly significant icing here (SW Connecticut), but was scanning the AFDs and came across this strong wording (necessary) from the NWSFO OUN:
..A DEVASTATING ICE STORM WILL BE THE RESULT..AND MAJOR ICE ACCUMS ARE NOW EXPECTED EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE I-44 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ALMOST ASSUREDLY NEED TO EXPAND THE ICE STORM WARNING FARTHER SOUTH SOON...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE OKC METRO AREA.
looking at mesonet data quite a few stations across northwest OK are reporting calm winds or no wind data - a sign that the anemometers are probably iced up....
http://www.mesonet.ou.edu/public/current.html
http://www.mesonet.ou.edu/public/current.html
Robert Dewey
EF5
I expect to see some pictures of the ice storm! LOL
Well, sitting here just north of Detroit, the NWS has downgraded our winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory for a total of 5 to 8 inches of snow. I already have 2.5 inches, and it's still coming down at a moderate clip (my area wasn't supposed to have hardly any snow yet).
Looking at the infrared loop, a massive core of -65C cloud tops has started to develop just to the northwest of the main heavy precipitation axis over MO and IL. Watervapor loop also shows an extensive area of moisture headed towards my area. Looking at radar, it appears that a nice band is trying to setup to the northwest of the main precipitation axis, which could mess up the current forecast of 1 to 2 inches for today. It will be interesting to watch over the next hour or so, and see if that development weakens, rotates to the east, or blasts into the area...
Well, sitting here just north of Detroit, the NWS has downgraded our winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory for a total of 5 to 8 inches of snow. I already have 2.5 inches, and it's still coming down at a moderate clip (my area wasn't supposed to have hardly any snow yet).
Looking at the infrared loop, a massive core of -65C cloud tops has started to develop just to the northwest of the main heavy precipitation axis over MO and IL. Watervapor loop also shows an extensive area of moisture headed towards my area. Looking at radar, it appears that a nice band is trying to setup to the northwest of the main precipitation axis, which could mess up the current forecast of 1 to 2 inches for today. It will be interesting to watch over the next hour or so, and see if that development weakens, rotates to the east, or blasts into the area...
rdale
EF5
"my area wasn't supposed to have hardly any snow yet"
Just curious - why didn't you think you'd see any snow overnight? I had 1-2" for most of the region with 2-4" south of I-94 last night...
Just curious - why didn't you think you'd see any snow overnight? I had 1-2" for most of the region with 2-4" south of I-94 last night...
Robert Dewey
EF5
Well, I expected light accumulation, but NWS DTX didn't mention any accumulations except for 2-3 inches for the far southeastern 4 counties (thus the winter storm warning because of the additional snow last night/this morning). Our local TV stations also didn't mention anything overnight for areas north of Detroit either...
Joel Wright
EF5
Wow. I'm impressed. It's been snowing now for almost 12hrs off and on. We are almost up to a whole inch. At this pace we could get close to a whole 2"!
So far the models have way overestimated QPF at least here locally. We were forecasted by most of the models to have over .50" liquid. Granted the main part of the storm hasn't arrived yet, but I am far from impressed.
So far the models have way overestimated QPF at least here locally. We were forecasted by most of the models to have over .50" liquid. Granted the main part of the storm hasn't arrived yet, but I am far from impressed.
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