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07/15/04 NOW: Central Plains, Southeast, Northern Plains

Larry J. Kosch

NWS has posted a TORN watch for most of Eastern NE and SE SD for this afternoon. Storms are already firing up along a line streaching from the NE-SD border near Spencer NE down to Burwell and goes westward toward Oshkosh NE. Post your storm discussions and chase plans here.

Update: Didn't meant to leave GA, FL and MI out of the action. Two SWWs were issued for their areas. Numerous reports of doppler indicated tornadoes in the Northern FL area.

Update: SWW issued for MN and ND/SD this evening.

Good Luck!!

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Well, timing suggests I should post here. So, what are the thoughts on the convection attempting to get going west of Ord? Mike I'm guessing can give a visual assessment - but I wonder if it has much of a chance. If the mesoscale analyses are to be believed, this cell is on the western fringe of the deep layer shear axis > 30 knots, which if true would make this cell struggle to organize into a supercell. Other cells starting to fire further NE up the front - presumably in progressively better deep layer shear. Mid-level CAA is suggested in the mesoanlyses further north along the NE/SD border, so convection might get going up around the Pickstown area soon. There is also a mesolow evident in the moisture convergence field diving southward along the boundary across eastern SD that might get things going as it approaches better instability.
 
Glen, agree with your assessment on the current environment of the towers. Once any convection gets to H281 or so though, if the RUC has any handle on the situation, bulk shear should be strong enough for any storm to start rotating. I think give these bubbles an hour or so to get going and move southeastward, and I think we may have something just south of where things were so violent on Monday night.
 
You are right, Jim, things need time to cook, but I guess I was more suggesting that I don't like the setup with the southernmost convection on the line. The storm anvils are blowing into the inflow wind direction, which prevents further heating to inflow air for a SE cell motion. Also, the instability axis orientation is unfavorable. If cells move along the instability axis they should have the best opportunity, so the section of boundary oriented more N-S should have the best chance relative to the SW-NE oriented boundary near Ord, and the better chance of a highly deviant cell motion should be where deep layer shear is stronger. But, cells don't have enough space to get going right now. Looking at the latest radar, I think this is playing out with cells moving off the instability axis and struggling, as well as having a multi-cell type appearance.
 
Storm Action in Custer County

Right now most of the storm action in Central NE is focused in Custer County or right north of Broken Bow, NE. In spite of what others were saying, these storms appears to be doing quite well, thank you. I think the boundary itself is moving S-SE. That is keeping the storms going for now. The GOES 12 VIS SAT is showing considerable cloud top shearing, but I think that's a necessary part of the formula for tornadic development.

NWS just issued a ST warning:

418 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA UNTIL 515 PM CDT
AT 415 PM CDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM COMSTOCK TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MERNA...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
8)
 
Check your Maps!

In checking a NE road map, I realized that line of storms moving thru Broken Bow NE are actually following a pair of hiways oriented NW-SE. Hwy 2 goes thru Broken Bow and ends at Grand Island, NE. A Hwy 11 runs thru Burwell, snakes SE and winds up by Wood River, NE. Anybody going on these two hiways heading NW better keep your heads up cause the storms are coming your way!!

:lol:
 
Re: Storm Action in Custer County

In spite of what others were saying, these storms appears to be doing quite well, thank you.

Well, disagreement makes for more interesting discussions. I'll stick with my negative opinion on the convection near Broken Bow. I guess just to continue to stay consistent, I'll stick with my vote for the Pickstown area convection, which a few echoes are starting to pop - maybe they'll manage to make it.

Glen
 
Storms are Pooling

NWS radar out of Hastings NE showing two of the three storms near Broken Bow NE doing a "merger". And look at the base reflectivity on the westmost storm...I've heard of "flying eagle" but this looks like a "flying rabbit". :shock: (In Elmer Fudd's accent) Hey, there's something screwy going on around here!!

Update: That westmost storm is also taking a "right hand turn" towards the south. Showing a nice circular, supercell shape. It appears to be heading for Lexington NE. Heads up!!
 
Glen, good observations, thanks. My biggest thought was that anything west of H281 would struggle to rotate but if they could propogate eastward, their structure might develop. Agree that best chance of tornadic development will be along N/S boundary with better deep layer shear. That cell just north of the NE/SD border bears watching, though I am really starting to like Holt County, which has been sunny now for a few hours.
 
TORN Warning

NWS has issued its first TORN warning for NE:

515 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WARNING FOR CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA
UNTIL 545 PM CDT

AT 509 PM CDT, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF COMSTOCK TO ANSLEY TO OCONTO MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
 
Aye, looks like the middle storm of the group has the best chance. After examining the BREFs and SRMs (good rotation through each slice), echo tops (55+), and VIL (quite impressive), i'd say that storm has the best chance. And it looks like it just got tornado warned.
 
New storm deveolped ever nrn portion of tornado watch

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF
PICKSTOWN...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.
 
MD up for Central Minnesota and Southern Minnesota and ERN South Dakota WW required in an hour or so

IF STORMS CAN TAP AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER AIRMASS OVER
ERN SD...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WWD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO STRONGER CAP OVER ERN SD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR.
 
Nebraska Tornadoes
-0650 PM 4 N Page in Holt County by a trained spotter
-0654 PM 8 N Orchard in Knox County by a trained spotter
-700 PM 6 WNW Ewing in Holt County by fire dept/rescue
Tornado lifted at 705
-700 PM 3 NE Page in Holt County by emergency manager
Irrigation tower destroyed

South Dakota Tornadoes:
-0518 PM 10 E Pickstown in Charles Mix County from a trained spotter.
-0521 PM 7 W Wagner in Charles Mix County from amateur radio
Tornado approximately quarter mile winde
-0533 PM 2 NE Marty in Charles Mix County from amateur radio
Tornado showing signs of weakening
-0546 PM 3 SE Marty in Charles Mix County from amateur radio
tornado roped out and lifted

Mike
http://mgweather.com
 
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