Ingredients for severe weather are coming together in the high and northern plains right now.
19Z SPC mesoanalyses showing over 5000 J/kg SBCAPE in SE SD with above 3500 J/kg in a region from just south of Grand Forks, ND SWWD through about Kearney/North Platte and vicinity. However, the area to the north - in E SD - appears much more likely to see storm development soon. There is some sort of boundary, a dryline of sorts, pushing east across C SD providing plenty of surface convergence. This area is also under 20 kt southerlies at 925 mb, up to 30 kt southwesterlies at 850 mb, 30 - 35 kt west-southwesterlies at 700 mb and generally 30 kt westerlies at 500 mb. Temps aloft are plenty cool enough to preclude capping. Effective deep layer shear values are > 40 kts across most of E SD, with 15 - 30 kt 0-1 km shear from NE SD through WC MN. 0-1 km, 0-3 km, and effective SRH values are also in the sufficient-for-severe-weather ranges. Lastly, low-level CAPE is in abundance from SE ND all the way south through NC KS. Supercell compsite, significant tornado, and EHI values are all jumping to reflect the overlapping of such good parameters. It looks to me like some supercells with tornadoes are a distinct possibility before multiple storms coalesce and evolve upscale into an MCS late tonight (DCAPE values are rather high in the area, too). I'm actually kind of surprised that the watch SPC just issued for the area wasn't a tornado watch.
19Z SPC mesoanalyses showing over 5000 J/kg SBCAPE in SE SD with above 3500 J/kg in a region from just south of Grand Forks, ND SWWD through about Kearney/North Platte and vicinity. However, the area to the north - in E SD - appears much more likely to see storm development soon. There is some sort of boundary, a dryline of sorts, pushing east across C SD providing plenty of surface convergence. This area is also under 20 kt southerlies at 925 mb, up to 30 kt southwesterlies at 850 mb, 30 - 35 kt west-southwesterlies at 700 mb and generally 30 kt westerlies at 500 mb. Temps aloft are plenty cool enough to preclude capping. Effective deep layer shear values are > 40 kts across most of E SD, with 15 - 30 kt 0-1 km shear from NE SD through WC MN. 0-1 km, 0-3 km, and effective SRH values are also in the sufficient-for-severe-weather ranges. Lastly, low-level CAPE is in abundance from SE ND all the way south through NC KS. Supercell compsite, significant tornado, and EHI values are all jumping to reflect the overlapping of such good parameters. It looks to me like some supercells with tornadoes are a distinct possibility before multiple storms coalesce and evolve upscale into an MCS late tonight (DCAPE values are rather high in the area, too). I'm actually kind of surprised that the watch SPC just issued for the area wasn't a tornado watch.
