2023-05-11: EVENT: KS/OK/TX

[Brian McKibben]

We have a nice compact negatively titled 500 mb trough coming through right around 00z. One thing i have noticed is the models tend to weaken this feature as it is ejected.

Nevertheless, we have some serious moisture to play with and should see MLCAPE values above 3000 j/kg.

Some CAMS are already hinting at initiation along the DL. It will be interesting to see where the DL sets up.

Target area for me would be around Weatherford, OK and would then adjust north/south based upon satellite and surface featuers

 

[TonyB]

Looking real good there tomorrow, and in Colorado today. Nice few days before the slowdown.

 

[Mike Smith]

If I had to make an SPC-type forecast now, I would issue a tornado watch from 30 N of PTT to FSI; 70 miles east and west of the line.

There will be strong difluence, the dry line bulge over west OK mentioned by SPC in their 1730Z outlook, and the CAMs showing a quasi-warm front near the KS-OK border.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Likely going to be insane chaser convergence tomorrow.

 

[Brian McKibben]

OUN has a fantastic forecast discussion out. Here is the link in case we have some new folks on here that don't know where to find it.

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov

I am anxiously awaiting 00z model runs.

 

[Mikayla Norris]

So I went ahead and took a day of leave for tomorrow. The models appear to be in good agreement on the dryline bulge along, or just north of, the Red River in SW OK. The 18z NAM forecast soundings for Lawton and OKC at F027 & F030 look decent, but the stronger 500mb winds look to be further to the NW. I will be heading out from Altus, OK, so I will have time tomorrow morning to better refine my target area, but as of now I am thinking somewhere along the US-81 corridor, likely close to I-40. I figure it will allow me to make adjustments north or south as needed, and the I-40 corridor wouldn't be too far away for any east/west adjustments. @Brian McKibben I too am anxiously awaiting the 00z runs.

 

[Todd Lemery]

What really is interesting to me is there will be legitimate chasing from noon until dark. With winds later in the day breaking up the line I could see a lot of people getting multiple tornadoes tomorrow. It’s spread out enough, and in favorable terrain, where I don’t think chaser convergence will be a major issue either. All in all, tomorrow should be one of the better chase days of the year

 

[Michael Towers]

Likely going to be insane chaser convergence tomorrow.

One reason why I’m sitting this one out, my target would be along the DL in OK but to get me to drive that far and deal with the masses I need better potential. Same with KS, enticing secondary target but potential lower with lesser instability and questions regarding modes. This is a set-up where I wish I lived in KS/TX/OK, definitely worth a day off work and a chase that could have a big payoff. But to miss three business days on an 1800+ trip I just can’t pull the trigger. Keeping my powder dry for a potential Iowa bust Friday or something more promising yet to come.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I think KS is going to be a mess. I’ve seen this movie before. Compact closed low moving through, early and widespread convection triggered by the vort max, expanding in coverage as the day goes on and instability builds to the east of the ongoing convection, but nothing ever becomes discrete, especially with the meridional and even backing 500mb flow.

OK is the only reasonable target in my opinion, but also not a slam dunk, as noted in the Norman AFD. All you need is one storm to chase, and there could be a great isolated supercell, so I would definitely be out there if I could be… In contrast to Todd, I think chaser convergence will be insane, with potentially just one clear “storm of the day” in western OK, approaching OKC metro, exacerbated by the lack of activity so far in late April and early May.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

One reason why I’m sitting this one out, my target would be along the DL in OK but to get me to drive that far and deal with the masses I need better potential. Same with KS, enticing secondary target but potential lower with lesser instability and questions regarding modes. This is a set-up where I wish I lived in KS/TX/OK, definitely worth a day off work and a chase that could have a big payoff. But to miss three business days on an 1800+ trip I just can’t pull the trigger. Keeping my powder dry for a potential Iowa bust Friday or something more promising yet to come.

Im in a wait and see mode right now. Working from home today and started early at 0400 so I could get off early. Depending on how things look I can leave home and blast SW on the Turnpike if things look interesting. I feel like storm modes will be messy here in KS, but my forecasting skills arent on the same level as many of you.

 

[Todd Lemery]

I agree with James that the dryline has a good chance to turn into a circus, which is part of the reason I’m going to a secondary target in Kansas. The chaser convergence will be much better(I should have been clearer in my post yesterday ) and I’llprobably have a lot longer time to spend with storms in front of me. The storm of the day is likely on OK though.

 

[Brian McKibben]

While recent runs of the HRRR put out some nice supers in W Okla. I would monitor the current convection in SW Okla through the morning. Latest HRRR runs basically kill that convection off by 8-9 am. If they persist longer than that it will likely impact the target area later. Could see some OFBs or even could bring in too much CINH for afternoon heating to overcome.

 

[Bobby Little]

Normally i would move ckoser to okc area and the dryline to the west there but will instead target secondary target in cetral kansas and watch and wait and pick my cell as they arc up today then chase north .after chasin last 3 days and lots of miles..gonna chill in kansas

 

[Mikayla Norris]

It is difficult for me to get time off on short notice (Air Force), so even though I am stationed in OK, I don't get to chase very often. I got lucky today and my leadership let me take some leave with just 2 days of notice. So despite the hoards, and the potential HP storm mode, I'll be out and about in central OK. My plan from last night's post above hasn't really changed much, and I still have room for flexibility if needed. For those others heading out today as well, stay safe and happy chasing!

 

[Brian McKibben]

As of 10am, the convection in SW Okla is still going strong and propagating eastward along the Red River. With the 500mb upper low weakening throughout the period, I don't think we are going to get a significant mass response to advect the high Theta-e air back into Oklahoma. For this reason, I am pessimistic about the forecast.

12z CAMS are still hinting at the possibility of covection initializing. But what type of airmass will these storms have to work with?

The LLJ seems to ramp up after sunset as it begins its normal diurnal cycle. SO if we can get a few discrete cells to for and sustain themselves after 00z we could see a few significant tornadoes.

My attention will stay focused on the Vis Sat and Radar trends through morning.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Does anyone know what time the 12z TTU WRF run starts processing?

 

[Brian McKibben]

Does anyone know what time the 12z TTU WRF run starts processing?

It is processing now.

Texas Tech Real-Time WRF Modeling System

The Texas Tech Atmospheric Group forecast images using the WRF mesoscale modeling system

www.atmo.ttu.edu

 

[JamesCaruso]

Looks like the dryline bulge will be closer to the Red River, displaced from the stronger 500mb flow.

 

[Brian McKibben]

While storm have formed in NW Tx and SW Ok, they have really struggled over the last 2 hours. With the amount of availble CAPE they explode but then fizzle out a bit. I think the lack of upper support is really affecting them.

Several storms have gone up and within an hour they are gone. There is one cell SE of Lawton that is still going but on Hi-Res GOES, you can see the anvil and updraft don't appear very crisp. I would expect them to look way better given the environment.

If trends continue I think storms may struggle through the evening.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

I would not have guessed NW KS would churn them out while Oklahoma struggled. Thats the story of the day so far.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I would not have guessed NW KS would churn them out while Oklahoma struggled. Thats the story of the day so far.

Doesn’t look like anything discrete/chaseable up there though, at least not now… Wasn’t watching earlier, were there any discrete storms?

 

[JamesCaruso]

While storm have formed in NW Tx and SW Ok, they have really struggled over the last 2 hours. With the amount of availble CAPE they explode but then fizzle out a bit. I think the lack of upper support is really affecting them.

Several storms have gone up and within an hour they are gone. There is one cell SE of Lawton that is still going but on Hi-Res GOES, you can see the anvil and updraft don't appear very crisp. I would expect them to look way better given the environment.

If trends continue I think storms may struggle through the evening.

I set an armchair chase target just east of Lawton, was happy to see the first cell go up nearby, and happy to see SPC issue a localized MSD highlighting that small area surrounding area as primed for discrete, tornadic supercells. And equally surprised to see them die out. Not sure what the problem is. Cap does not seem to be an issue. Surface and 850 winds are weak, but should be adequate. I don’t think upper support is an issue, looks to be at least 35-45 knots at 500mb, should be more than adequate.

Meanwhile, storms now blowing up with nice velocity couplets in TX, southeast of Wichita Falls. Can’t see conditions being any better down there. If anything, surface winds are slightly less backed, and 500mb flow weakens as you move south further from the upper low.

Not knowing why, really bothers me… The only way to learn is to know why… Was it a personal knowledge gap in my forecast? Seems unlikely, given it was corroborated by SPC’s localized MSD… Any thoughts???

EDIT: OK storms finally getting their act together… Still confusing why some of the initial ones to the south died off earlier…

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Doesn’t look like anything discrete/chaseable up there though, at least not now… Wasn’t watching earlier, were there any discrete storms?

A friend has family that lives out there. I have gotten multiple tornado pics from them including one that is pretty photogenic. Also a guy that captured twins near Weskan KS. Ryan Hall has tweeted some pics as well.

I heard a report from Rush Springs OK area of traffic like you would see in a metro area and numerous accidents.

 

[JamesCaruso]

A friend has family that lives out there. I have gotten multiple tornado pics from them including one that is pretty photogenic. Also a guy that captured twins near Weskan KS. Ryan Hall has tweeted some pics as well.

I heard a report from Rush Springs area of traffic like you would see in a metro area and numerous accidents.

Thanks Matt. Guess my morning post disparaging the KS target didn't age well...

 

[gdlewen]

Not knowing why, really bothers me… The only way to learn is to know why… Was it a personal knowledge gap in my forecast? Seems unlikely, given it was corroborated by SPC’s localized MSD… Any thoughts???

I set the Lawton area as a target as well, and was glad to see cells go up there. And I was equally surprised when they failed to deliver. I developed an infatuation with the "first OK" cell that formed near Randlett, as it seemed to have an LP-character, and I really wanted to confirm that radar-based assessment. But I got a late start after a meeting in OKC and intercepted it near Comanche, where it corkscrewed-out and dissipated. Really dissipated.

It was a pretty cell, but disappointing. I saw several nice rotating supercells with rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds; my big mistake was not heading north once I realized that the cells that produced little in my area were intensifying northeast of Alex.

So now I need to figure out two things: why the cells sputtered, and why they intensified when they approached the OKC metro area NE of Alex. The one big reason I go out to observe storms is to learn, and every trip is therefore a success as long as I learn something. But I second your question, "Any thoughts?" I can use some help understanding this.