2023-05-12: EVENT: NE/KS/OK/TX

[Brian McKibben]

This could be one of those huge CAPE low shear sleeper days.

Plentiful moisture this morning as low 70 Tds extend to the OK/KS border and then upper 60s up through Nebraska.

If you could teleport, head up to Nebraska for your best chances. You have some upper support.

Down south along the DL/Front you could still get lucky though. I would expect explosive development by this afternoon as we are already sitting on >4,000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 3000 MLCAPE.

There is just enough bulk shear to get some marginal supercells in KS and OK. And with the explosive development we could get a brief window 1-2 hour to get a tornado.

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

Im going to sit tight and see where the storms form. If they form just off to my west they should be easy to keep up with, just east and it will make it a little more difficult. This is for my current location. Not great, but it gives me something to do.

 

[Brian McKibben]

I gotta say... I know the upper support isn't great in OK, but I really thought with 5000 sbCape and 4000 mlCape per the OUN sounding that these storms would have a little more pop to them. Still lots of time left, but so far I am not impressed.

But... I do still love me a nice big CAPE sounding

 

[Matt Zumbrunn]

I almost intercepted the first cell of the day on my bicycle. It developed rapidly. Then it just fizzled. Plenty of available CAPE and sounding looks decent. It just flat out died. There is another one coming as I speak that looks better. We will see what this one brings.