Brian McKibben
EF3
Does anyone know what time the 12z TTU WRF run starts processing?
2023-05-11: EVENT: KS/OK/TX
- Thread starter Brian McKibben
- Start date
Brian McKibben
EF3
It is processing now.
Texas Tech Real-Time WRF Modeling System
The Texas Tech Atmospheric Group forecast images using the WRF mesoscale modeling system
www.atmo.ttu.edu
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Looks like the dryline bulge will be closer to the Red River, displaced from the stronger 500mb flow.
Brian McKibben
EF3
While storm have formed in NW Tx and SW Ok, they have really struggled over the last 2 hours. With the amount of availble CAPE they explode but then fizzle out a bit. I think the lack of upper support is really affecting them.
Several storms have gone up and within an hour they are gone. There is one cell SE of Lawton that is still going but on Hi-Res GOES, you can see the anvil and updraft don't appear very crisp. I would expect them to look way better given the environment.
If trends continue I think storms may struggle through the evening.
Several storms have gone up and within an hour they are gone. There is one cell SE of Lawton that is still going but on Hi-Res GOES, you can see the anvil and updraft don't appear very crisp. I would expect them to look way better given the environment.
If trends continue I think storms may struggle through the evening.
Matt Zumbrunn
EF2
I would not have guessed NW KS would churn them out while Oklahoma struggled. Thats the story of the day so far.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Doesn’t look like anything discrete/chaseable up there though, at least not now… Wasn’t watching earlier, were there any discrete storms?
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I set an armchair chase target just east of Lawton, was happy to see the first cell go up nearby, and happy to see SPC issue a localized MSD highlighting that small area surrounding area as primed for discrete, tornadic supercells. And equally surprised to see them die out. Not sure what the problem is. Cap does not seem to be an issue. Surface and 850 winds are weak, but should be adequate. I don’t think upper support is an issue, looks to be at least 35-45 knots at 500mb, should be more than adequate.
Meanwhile, storms now blowing up with nice velocity couplets in TX, southeast of Wichita Falls. Can’t see conditions being any better down there. If anything, surface winds are slightly less backed, and 500mb flow weakens as you move south further from the upper low.
Not knowing why, really bothers me… The only way to learn is to know why… Was it a personal knowledge gap in my forecast? Seems unlikely, given it was corroborated by SPC’s localized MSD… Any thoughts???
EDIT: OK storms finally getting their act together… Still confusing why some of the initial ones to the south died off earlier…
Matt Zumbrunn
EF2
A friend has family that lives out there. I have gotten multiple tornado pics from them including one that is pretty photogenic. Also a guy that captured twins near Weskan KS. Ryan Hall has tweeted some pics as well.
I heard a report from Rush Springs OK area of traffic like you would see in a metro area and numerous accidents.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Thanks Matt. Guess my morning post disparaging the KS target didn't age well...
gdlewen
EF3
I set the Lawton area as a target as well, and was glad to see cells go up there. And I was equally surprised when they failed to deliver. I developed an infatuation with the "first OK" cell that formed near Randlett, as it seemed to have an LP-character, and I really wanted to confirm that radar-based assessment. But I got a late start after a meeting in OKC and intercepted it near Comanche, where it corkscrewed-out and dissipated. Really dissipated.
It was a pretty cell, but disappointing. I saw several nice rotating supercells with rotating wall clouds and funnel clouds; my big mistake was not heading north once I realized that the cells that produced little in my area were intensifying northeast of Alex.
So now I need to figure out two things: why the cells sputtered, and why they intensified when they approached the OKC metro area NE of Alex. The one big reason I go out to observe storms is to learn, and every trip is therefore a success as long as I learn something. But I second your question, "Any thoughts?" I can use some help understanding this.
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gdlewen
EF3
Traffic was pretty bad in spots, and everywhere you went folks were parked off the road or in cut-outs. Like: everywhere. But I didn't see any reckless behavior and most everyone seemed to be obeying the speed limit.
Jamie H
EF3
Was the later ramp up due to the LLJ kicking in?
gdlewen
EF3
I don't know--I hadn't considered that possibility--so I am hoping others with more experience will chime in. As a "civilian", I can only check the LLJ hypothesis using publicly-available model data, and I will certainly take a shot at it.
Brian McKibben
EF3
My guess for now is that the height rises forecast by models played a role. The lapse rates between 700-500 mb were mediocre.
Look at teh 21z OUN sounding and you have 6.9° / km versus the 00z sounding it was down to 6.5. This would also explain why we didn't see a whole bunch of monster hail reports.
Even though the moisture was great, the lack of upper support didn't let these guys realize their max potential.
Once we approached 0-01z the LLJ increased a bit which I think aided in getting these guys rooted into the boundary layer.
