2023-06-12 EVENT: TX/OK/CO/NM

[JamesCaruso]

Am I crazy to say that the setup in central TX today reminds me of El Reno day? Mid-70s dew points, low LCLs, high CAPE and shear, very focused initiation near the triple-point with the lack of large-scale ascent promising an isolated storm without competition/interference.… Yeah the surface winds aren’t great, but neither were they on El Reno day (maybe a little lighter today). I could easily see there being some mesoscale enhancement of surface winds that is not being well-resolved on the models, and/or storm-relative inflow enhancement from ESE/SE storm motion. Regardless, we could definitely use a stronger LLJ than is forecast.

I‘m not suggesting we’re going to have a 2-mile-wide EF3, I’m just saying that it feels like that “type” of high-instability day with a focused mesoscale setup and one big intense supercell…

At this point I would target the Colorado City / Sweetwater area just west of Abilene, just north of the dryline bulge, adjusting as needed based on dryline position, in particular the evolution of the dryline bulge. Since it’s early, I’d probably for now preliminarily define a broader area from Colorado City to just west of Abilene down to Carlsbad which is just NW of San Angelo. Not the greatest chase country in terms of terrain and roads, particularly as storms move east/southeast.

Incidentally, the GFS showed this at least as early as last Wednesday, when I posted in the 2023 Chase Season thread that GFS was showing a dry punch near ABI for today.

 

[Mark Farnik]

Am I crazy to say that the setup in central TX today reminds me of El Reno day? Mid-70s dew points, low LCLs, high CAPE and shear, very focused initiation near the triple-point with the lack of large-scale ascent promising an isolated storm without competition/interference.… Yeah the surface winds aren’t great, but neither were they on El Reno day (maybe a little lighter today). I could easily see there being some mesoscale enhancement of surface winds that is not being well-resolved on the models, and/or storm-relative inflow enhancement from ESE/SE storm motion. Regardless, we could definitely use a stronger LLJ than is forecast.

I‘m not suggesting we’re going to have a 2-mile-wide EF3, I’m just saying that it feels like that “type” of high-instability day with a focused mesoscale setup and one big intense supercell…

At this point I would target the Colorado City / Sweetwater area just west of Abilene, just north of the dryline bulge, adjusting as needed based on dryline position, in particular the evolution of the dryline bulge. Since it’s early, I’d probably for now preliminarily define a broader area from Colorado City to just west of Abilene down to Carlsbad which is just NW of San Angelo. Not the greatest chase country in terms of terrain and roads, particularly as storms move east/southeast.

Incidentally, the GFS showed this at least as early as last Wednesday, when I posted in the 2023 Chase Season thread that GFS was showing a dry punch near ABI for today.

No, you're not crazy. Today has looked like a potentially conditional higher end day since mid last week. The GFS isn't always right about mesoscale details but it seems to be getting the 'big picture' fairly accurate this season.

I'd like to see a more robust LLJ myself, but I think the local backing of surface flow at the triple point, along with the boundary showing up as being oriented ESE to WNW from northwest of GRK to south of ABI, if a storm anchors along that, it could certainly produce a substantial tornado.

The terrain down there is less than ideal, especially when you get closer to the San Saba River, and the road network is a bit on the sparse side, plus cell coverage for ALL providers is very spotty. At least it was last time I was in that part of Texas back in 2021.

If the parts for my chase vehicle had showed up on Friday like they were supposed to, I would be down there today, but they are arriving any time now, and given that the wheel bearing on the driver's side is making a LOT of noise and the struts are borderline blown out... I just spent $625 on new tires three weeks ago and I didn't want to risk either the wheel bearing seizing or starting to cause premature wear issues on my new tires.

I'd be setting up shop around Sweetwater to Winters, with the expectation that the Ballinger to Goldthwaite corridor will be the spot to be later on this afternoon/evening. I won't be surprised if a photogenic tornado happens, provided the storm stays adequately vented; given the high DP's, a more HP mode wouldn't be surprising, and the lapse rates/extreme instability are highly conducive of gorilla hail, so it might be inadvisable to be trying to get into the notch too closely.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thanks @Mark Farnik . At this point, I'm a little concerned about veering winds in the warm sector, out in front of the true dryline, and would probably be adjusting to a county or so southeast of Abilene. Also concerned about the >90s temps and resulting higher T/Td spreads south of the front. But I still think it could be interesting.