07/13/04 FCST: MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY

[Kurt Silvey]

Here’s MHO. I like the look of central to SE IA for initiation, with an early target of Keokuk County. The area is saturated with moisture, dews into the high 70’s, and will have surface temps around 90 degrees. There appears to be a boundary line setting up W to E across IA., and a cold front will be pushing SSE into the area, possibly helping with some forcing. Cape’s are forecast above 4000. It does appear the mid to upper level winds could be a little on the weak side.

Let me know what you think, as my forecasting skills are pretty rough.

 

[Ben Pinette]

I should rephrase my last statement: There's nothing tornadic to chase. I wouldn't want to offend the lightning chasers here! Sorry, I generally don't consider that, as it's not my thing.

 

[Zach Bailey]

Supercell firing over NW IL, TOR watches out from the SPC, might it be time for a NOW thread?

 

[Robert Dewey]

This definately looks like one of those events you just sit back and watch. Nothing much to chase, with possible exception of IL. Not that I don't like to get bowled over by the occassional derecho, but there's nothing to chase.

.....preparing for cleanup duty.......


Hey Robert.... 7/2/97?

Directional shear doesn't look good enough to be 7/2/97 type of event, speed shear is still quite strong. This event will likely be a fast moving derecho, maybe like the 5/31/98 event ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/c...-311998page.htm ), but with a more southerly track/with southeasterly movement. All events are different, so we will see how it all pans out later...

I probably won't chase to far out of my local area, but rather setup right ahead of the potential derecho and just let it blow through...

 

[Jon Miller]

Both Indianapolis & northern Indiana HWO's are now mentioning significant severe weather mostly straight line winds but including some isolated tornado's:





Jon Miller

 

[Bob Schafer]

I have family and friends in Cleveland, Columbus, and Detroit.

I'm careful to not "cry wolf" about warning them about wx events there too often, but I emailed them all today.

I told them all to get the loose stuff out of the yards tonight and get the windows closed, be prepared for power outages, and mostly be alert to the situation.

(Be Alert: We need more lerts)

Bob

 

[Jon Miller]

Looks like a tornado watch is coming for west & central Indiana:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1647.html

 

[Chris Hayes]

I wont be chasing but I'm still excited about the possible derecho tonight. I live in NE Ohio and am hoping for some good 70-90mph winds Time to get out the camcorder and tripod along with camera to do lightning photography as the derecho approaches.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I wont be chasing but I'm still excited about the possible derecho tonight. I live in NE Ohio and am hoping for some good 70-90mph winds Time to get out the camcorder and tripod along with camera to do lightning photography as the derecho approaches.

Same here... I'm just northwest of Detroit, MI... Things look like they are developing nicely across WI, with some backbuilding. This activity should spread southeastward rather quickly this evening, setting its sights on northeastern IL/MI/IN/OH...