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07/13/04 FCST: MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY

Looks like a good potential for severe thunderstorms tomorrow and SPC mentions possibility of a derecho -

LARGE SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE WITH DERECHO-LIKE PARAMETERS FROM PORTIONS OF SRN WI INTO
THE OH VALLEY.

...BEFORE A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WIND-PRODUCING MCS EVOLVES AND
RACES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. AN UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS IS
POSSIBLE AS DAY1 CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND CONFIDENCE IN INITIATING
ZONE BECOME MORE CLEAR.

Not looking to be a good chase day here in the lower Lakes, since it could be a late evening and/or fast moving wind event, but areas west such as WI/IL may get something early on...

Latest GFS is a bit further north with the shortwave, favoring the ETA solution, so the MCS may be a bit further north than what was mentioned in the 8Z SPC Day 2, possibly setting its eyes on the upper Ohio Valley/lower Lakes.
 
Likely be a moderate risk by morning. Looks like an interesting chase, with possible highlights being great lightning behind the line and spectacular structure on the leading edge of the bow echo if it does develop. Also could be some dramatic power flash events over urban areas when the gust front hits.

If I can make it, probably will head to southwest Ohio, though I really don't feel up to a long chase right now. Hoping something will make it here instead. I chased lightning all night last night, and more progged to fire tonight - so a long chase tomorrow will be contingent on the amount of sleep I can fit in between storm events.
 
Anyone paying attention to Tues shouldn't put too much into LOT's AFD and HWO. Lincoln WFO and Milwalkee WFO mention tomorrow as "significant".
 
Anyone paying attention to Tues shouldn't put too much into LOT's AFD and HWO. Lincoln WFO and Milwalkee WFO mention tomorrow as "significant".

Why not? Just wondering what your thoughts are...
 
Anyone paying attention to Tues shouldn't put too much into LOT's AFD and HWO. Lincoln WFO and Milwalkee WFO mention tomorrow as "significant".

Why not? Just wondering what your thoughts are...

Take a look at the lastest Day 2, then look at LOT's HWO/AFD. They're not seeing what the SPC is seeing/forecasting. They should at least mention straight line winds and hail.
 
Anyone paying attention to Tues shouldn't put too much into LOT's AFD and HWO. Lincoln WFO and Milwalkee WFO mention tomorrow as "significant".

Why not? Just wondering what your thoughts are...

Take a look at the lastest Day 2, then look at LOT's HWO/AFD. They're not seeing what the SPC is seeing/forecasting. They should at least mention straight line winds and hail.

Oh, I seen LOTs latest HWO issued at 830CDT, thought thats what you were talking about...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...
COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS OF TONIGHT...THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION SHOULD BE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD THEN ELVOLVE INTO A LARGE
SQUALL LINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

In the latest outlook, they play up the threat quite a bit, pretty strong wording for LOT.
 
Anyone paying attention to Tues shouldn't put too much into LOT's AFD and HWO. Lincoln WFO and Milwalkee WFO mention tomorrow as "significant".

Why not? Just wondering what your thoughts are...

Take a look at the lastest Day 2, then look at LOT's HWO/AFD. They're not seeing what the SPC is seeing/forecasting. They should at least mention straight line winds and hail.

Oh, I seen LOTs latest HWO issued at 830CDT, thought thats what you were talking about...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...
COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AS OF TONIGHT...THE
EXPECTED EVOLUTION SHOULD BE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO
SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD THEN ELVOLVE INTO A LARGE
SQUALL LINE...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

In the latest outlook, they play up the threat quite a bit, pretty strong wording for LOT.

I didn't see that one. Was referring to the 4 PM one. :oops:
 
Northern Indiana

After reviewing the AFD and forecasts from NWS offices in Ohio, Indiana, and Southern Michigan I have decided to head to northern Indiana for tuesday's chase. SHould be about a 5 hour drive from home so certainly worth the effort. If the SPC changes the outlook greatly overnight I may change my mind. The Northern Indiana AFD looked more promising than Indianapolis and certainly better than ILN (Cinci OH).

Detroit, Northern Indiana and Indianapolis NWS offices all mention the following..

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

But the Northern IN (IWX) AFD has the following which is hard to ignore.

ALSO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VERY STRONG SO SOME ROTATING
STORMS POSSIBLE IF CELLULAR CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THUS, POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE STORMS MENTIONED.

Also it may just be personal superstition but Ft Wayne Indiana always seems to be hit rather hard.

Illinois may be as promising or even more promising but the drive from SE Ohio and some morning commitments and the long drive put most of Illinois out of reach.

NWS out of Detroit mentioned storms moving at 50 MPH . How do you chase a storm like that ??
 
We had a cell here in Indy a few months ago that were reported by NWS to be moving at 60 or 65. The only thing we could do is get outta the way or go rent an airplane to keep up with it at that point.

I've been watching this prediction for a couple days now, just waiting for it to blow up tomorrow here..it should be a good day to chase.
 
Would target northern IN and possibly northeastern IL.

Moisture certainly in place, and instability increase quite a bit tomorrow afternoon. RUC (03Z run) extrapolation of 500mb wind fields would move the best wind field further north than what the ETA suggests... Aiming more towards northern IL/IN/OH and MI. Expect some supercells at the start of the event, but with the cap weakening, linear convection should organize. Derecho event very possible...
 
SPC's outlook is out and we're in a moderate risk now:

GREATEST TORNADO / LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG SWRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS IA / NERN MO AND PARTS OF IL / IND...WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED / SUPERCELL STORMS APPEARS TO EXIST. HOWEVER...STORM MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY BOWS / LINES. IN ADDITION TO AT LEAST A LOW-PROBABILITY SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR ROTATING COMMA HEADS OR SMALLER-SCALE BOWING ACROSS THIS REGION.
 
Think I am going to sit this one out. Chase budget is a little strained after 4 weeks in the Plains, going to save chase funds for hurricane season or a better tornado threat closer to home. Even if a daylight tornado situation materializes today, it will be far to the north in IL/IN, at least an 8-10 hour drive for me. Too far to go for a setup with fast storm motion that will make keeping up with anything difficult. Looks to be a nocturnal event into Ohio anyway. Will stay home and watch, possibly a short drive into SE Ohio to meet up with something after dark if it looks like it won't make it here.

Good luck to anyone chasing today!
 
This definately looks like one of those events you just sit back and watch. Nothing much to chase, with possible exception of IL. Not that I don't like to get bowled over by the occassional derecho, but there's nothing to chase.

.....preparing for cleanup duty....... :)


Hey Robert.... 7/2/97?
 
Here’s MHO. I like the look of central to SE IA for initiation, with an early target of Keokuk County. The area is saturated with moisture, dews into the high 70’s, and will have surface temps around 90 degrees. There appears to be a boundary line setting up W to E across IA., and a cold front will be pushing SSE into the area, possibly helping with some forcing. Cape’s are forecast above 4000. It does appear the mid to upper level winds could be a little on the weak side.

Let me know what you think, as my forecasting skills are pretty rough.
 
I should rephrase my last statement: There's nothing tornadic to chase. I wouldn't want to offend the lightning chasers here! Sorry, I generally don't consider that, as it's not my thing.
 
This definately looks like one of those events you just sit back and watch. Nothing much to chase, with possible exception of IL. Not that I don't like to get bowled over by the occassional derecho, but there's nothing to chase.

.....preparing for cleanup duty....... :)


Hey Robert.... 7/2/97?

Directional shear doesn't look good enough to be 7/2/97 type of event, speed shear is still quite strong. This event will likely be a fast moving derecho, maybe like the 5/31/98 event ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/c...-311998page.htm ), but with a more southerly track/with southeasterly movement. All events are different, so we will see how it all pans out later...

I probably won't chase to far out of my local area, but rather setup right ahead of the potential derecho and just let it blow through...
 
I have family and friends in Cleveland, Columbus, and Detroit.

I'm careful to not "cry wolf" about warning them about wx events there too often, but I emailed them all today.

I told them all to get the loose stuff out of the yards tonight and get the windows closed, be prepared for power outages, and mostly be alert to the situation.

(Be Alert: We need more lerts)

Bob
 
I wont be chasing but I'm still excited about the possible derecho tonight. I live in NE Ohio and am hoping for some good 70-90mph winds :D Time to get out the camcorder and tripod along with camera to do lightning photography as the derecho approaches.
 
I wont be chasing but I'm still excited about the possible derecho tonight. I live in NE Ohio and am hoping for some good 70-90mph winds :D Time to get out the camcorder and tripod along with camera to do lightning photography as the derecho approaches.

Same here... I'm just northwest of Detroit, MI... Things look like they are developing nicely across WI, with some backbuilding. This activity should spread southeastward rather quickly this evening, setting its sights on northeastern IL/MI/IN/OH...
 
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