04/20/05: TALK: Central/Southern/High Plains

[Glen Romine]

As the day moves on I am liking further east. I am heading out in a few minutes with an initial target of Hebron, NE (imagine that). This target could possibly move even futher east as instability looks to be better aound this area. Also shear will be more than sufficent. I am not liking what I see as the day moves where SPC has their moderate risk and I don't think that it should be a moderate risk. Anyways you can consider me on the road as of now.

Good Luck To All Who Are Chasing!

Darin

HAHA...just as I submitted that SPC downgraded

Good luck Darin - but you might want to bring some sun screen along. Axis of warmest cap looks to run right over Hebron. Better chance for storms back into the KC area - but torn threat there looks minimal right now, or if you go much further west (think Front Range).

Glen

 

[JHadorn]

Latest GOES image still shows huge area of just garbage cloud cover. The entire western half of Nebraska is under a blanket of clouds and I believe that this will not allow the atmosphere to destabalize anytime in the next, oh, four hours. It certainly hasn't changed at all since I woke up this morning and my current belief is that the cloud cover will persist for quite some time.

The latest RUC run shows that CAPE values will be nadda for all of western Nebraska, and only a modest 500 j/kg for northwest Colorado. If I were to chase purely on CAPE values I'd be chasing southeast Nebraska and a large chunk of Kansas. Capping looks to be pretty strong today, though.

So my personal opinion is that today would be a great day to bbq or get some yard work done. But I think that the severe weather potential is in the middle of a steady spiral in a toilet basin.

 

[Dan Dawson]

Svr-warned storm in Briscoe Cty TX is looking increasingly supercellular on radar, should be interesting to see if it can maintain such characteristics in the marginal shear environment that it is in.

Dan

 

[David Wolfson]

Looks like it's got a split going with the right-mover taking over. Pretty impressive sat image, too.

 

[Philip Flory]

Indeed, the right cell split has definently taken over, latest image has the right split near 60dbz with the left split below 45. Other storms are developing farther NE along the dryline in NW OK/SC KS. Like Jeff, I am reluctent to head out givin weak mid-level shear and the fact I am dead tired after 1400 miles the last 2 days (hey.. it's only April) I am keeping an eye on data though and if a cell shows signs of becoming established I may head out.

Of note, a old outflow boundry from last nights MCS has stalled over NE OK/SC KS... a few cu have begun developing near the OFB well east of the dryline. A quick visual observation outside from ICT indicates a few TCU trying to establish themselves, cap however should be well in place. Current conditions at the house are 84/67 with a S wind at 10-20mph.

 

[Glen Romine]

Still not too optimistic storms will ever develop during daylight hours over nw KS. Still no sign of increased cumulus development despite mesoanalyses showing weaking cin owing to large scale ascent across ne CO. With the new convection to the south potentially intercepting some of the developing low-level jet flow, this may further decrease the expected increase in convergence which should occur in the next few hours. Nevertheless - can't rule out completely convection developing - and still it's the most favorable environment given convection. I recall a nice DQ in Stockton. Time for some ice cream?

Glen

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm surely regretting classifying the area as a HIGH risk earlier, I guess I should have considered the cloud cover more....

I still have some hope for that whole area.... But if stuff don't get going in a couple of hours, Then forget about it....

..Nick..

 

[Tony Laubach]

The Colorado gang and I are sitting at the Holiday Inn Express in McCook, NE... I, personally, am not as excited as I could be... having some doubts, but I think we're about as good in position as we can be right now. Gonna hang here in McCook for a bit and see what happens..

 

[Dan Dawson]

Indeed, the right cell split has definently taken over, latest image has the right split near 60dbz with the left split below 45.

Now the cell has really turned right, propagating SE, with other cells that may be left splits screaming NNE away from it. It looks HP-ish though, but who knows. Excellent velocity couplet on it though!

Dan

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Pretty sweet supe near Turkey, Texas (if I'm looking at the map right). Wouldn't be surprised if this goes TOR warned pretty soon here. Absolutely incredible velocity signatures (along with pretty decent hook echo). Only concern is that the low rel. humidity in the BL will keep it relatively high based. No doubt it has some HUGE hail.

Gabe

 

[nickgrillo]

The Colorado gang and I are sitting at the Holiday Inn Express in McCook, NE... I, personally, am not as excited as I could be... having some doubts, but I think we're about as good in position as we can be right now. Gonna hang here in McCook for a bit and see what happens..

That is where the best setup is, And I really haven't given up on it yet.... I wish you luck!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/...est_ABI_vis.jpg

Nice supercells developing in the TX and OK panhandles....

 

[Dan Dawson]

So much for there not being enough shear for supercells

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Pretty sweet supe near Turkey, Texas (if I'm looking at the map right). Wouldn't be surprised if this goes TOR warned pretty soon here. Absolutely incredible velocity signatures (along with pretty decent hook echo). Only concern is that the low rel. humidity in the BL will keep it relatively high based. No doubt it has some HUGE hail.

Gabe

Awesome velocities indeed... It is a classic convergent cyclonic signature, indicating strong rotation as well as strong convergence which, especially on Tilt 1 scans, is a very good signature for tornadoes... Here's a cropped pic of SR-velocity Tilt 1 from AMA

[Broken External Image]:http://www.tornadocentral.com/now/amatvs.png

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

So much for there not being enough shear for Tornadoes as well lol.
Id be on that storm right now but I have the flu something horrible. Hopefully I can get over it by tomorrow and finally get back to chasing. Ive had this crud since Saturday night.
Im hoping the dryline doesnt push too far east too early tomorrow. If so I may just decide that if we dont have any storms in may this could be one of the worst storm seasons in recent memory. I keep wondering when Western North Texas will see some awesome storms......and the years pass and pass....

 

[Tony Laubach]

Sitting here at the Holiday Inn, we just had the winds shift from north/northeast to southeast in a matter of a few minutes... we're not in SE winds... still holding on to hope.. it's only 5pm!

**EDIT** Nevermind... we just got a wind tunnel affect between the buildings... winds are still NE... D- for field observations..