04/20/05: TALK: Central/Southern/High Plains

Starting a talk thread....

I was a little surprised at the SPC choosing to highlight S Michigan in a 25% risk for Day2. We'll have a little bit of instability and shear, but not sure if that could be enough to compensate from what we're lacking...

..Nick..
 
I didn't look all that closely at the models, but I have seen enough. I will take a closer look later tonight. I am going to leave Wichita at the butt crack of dawn tomorrow and head for NW Kansas. I will hopefully find some place with wifi and narrow down my target area. I think the far NE corner of Colorado and SW Nebraska are going to have a good shot at a couple of tornadoes. The stronger mid and upper level winds are nosing into the area around 00Z, maybe a little earlier.
 
I'll look more in the morning, but like what I see in western Illinois. Playing central Illinois tomorrow naturally, as its the shortest drive for me. I've got my eye on a Springfield, IL location for now. The chances for tornadoes arent huge in this area...but, I'm still just in need of any form of severe convection, be it linear, or supercellular.
 
I'm gonna take any form of Convection as well.... as I haven't heard a bolt of lightning this year so far. I mean, this will change cause I'm leaving in a week for the Plains.... but hey, wouldn't mind getting a break tomorrow!

I'm looking foward to what Day 1 is gonna look like. I really could never see the potential that the SPC was seeing in N IL into S MI....

..Nick..

You mean...seen a bolt of lightning?? :wink:

Wish I could say I think you're going to see some tomorrow, but I really dont. CAPE in Michigan tomorrow, is literally, 0. The closest any instability gets is north central Indiana. Maybe you can sneak something out early in the day, but by the evening, your temps are already in the 50s.

As far as the rest of the country...the best place will likely be northern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. The best ingredients are out there...but, they're by no means great. There's also a stronger cap out that way, which might cause a couple problems. Either way I'm not going to bother going anywhere but here for this set up. I'll just look towards the Mississippi river. I'd say anywhere south of Interstate-74 in Illinois, along a Champaign to Bloomington to Peoria has a chance to go...with a greater shot to the southwest of that...from Springfield to St. Louis. We'll see...
 
I gotta say I was surprised at the new outlook. When I checked the models tonite, I figured I would also look at the second outlook, but really didnt expect to see any change. Im sure we'll see an outlook much more like the first day 2, when the new day 1 comes out shortly.
 
I think the moderate risk is appropriate. I am betting the tornado probability will come up to 15% on the later outlooks in SW Nebraska and NE Colorado if the models verify. SPC is probably just keeping it low until things become more clear. I am liking my chances of getting the monkey off my back today. Good luck to everyone who ventures out.
 
Around 1 am a round of thunderstorms rolled through Grand Rapids allowing me to take 2 rolls of film. Im currently waiting to see if another line will make it across the lake.

I knew the Slight for this area would be removed and brought farther south. I was thinking about heading out tormorrow just for lightning but now im satisfied and won't be going out. need to save the money for developing pics, and Gas in the coming week. So good luck to those in the NE part of CO and NE tomorrow or should i say later today.

Oh Nick I never Knew you could hear a bolt of Lightning I know you can see them Lol.
 
I won't be chasing later today, but if I was, I would target the area near Stapleton, NE. RUC puts out pretty good CAPE in the region along with fairly good speed and directional shear. All in all I think most parameters will come together in this area. I think the SPC might bring the tor potential a little higher than 5%. That's just my opinion. Good luck to everyone that will be chasing. Hollingshead, no more boring basketball tricks, now get out there and get you some good stuff! Ah, just saw the post from Michael Gribble and I agree with him 100%.


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Sitting in my lovely motel room wondering if it is colder than western NE at this time(39). I should not have kicked the ac cooler before going to sleep, yeesh. I had purple feet when I woke up.

I'm wondering about these low clouds as they look a bit thick around here. Might have to move se from here(Ogallala). Maybe McCook NE will work by later on today. Nice readings in c KS ahead of the outflow boudary(68/63) for this early. Here's to hoping these clouds go away early. I honestly do not know what to think about today right now. At least I will have plenty of drive around and do nothing time to figure it out. Too cold and crappy to go fishing on the lake. Hmm. Should go take some stills of the so cool 7 foot(or so) tumbleweed drifts blocking sandhills 'roads'.

Just figured out something very cool. The check out time said 11 a.m. on the wall. I don't want to go anywhere till I have to and wasn't looking forward to driving in circles. I'm looking at my clock on the laptop seeing it is close to 10 and thinking about getting things together. Then it hit me...I'm in mountain time! Wooohooo. I have another hour. So if staying in this region and wanting extra time at the motel that day, just cross the timezone!
 
The Colorado chasers Verne Carlson, Tony Laubach, Tom Dulong, Jon Merage, and Tony and Jon's Friends *whew* will be meeting in BRIGHTON, CO at noon and then heading northeast up I-76 to follow the breaking clouds and cold front as it retreats north during the day. Good luck to everyone today, it is rare that we get a moderate risk in CO!
 
Changed the heading upon suggestion...

As Verne said, meeting in BRIGHTON (not Broomfield) at noon and heading up I-76... keeping my eyes pealed to areas a bit further east pending on how the cloud cover erodes throughout the morning and early afternoon. Will still make our way to Sterling and see what's shakin' from there.
 
As the day moves on I am liking further east. I am heading out in a few minutes with an initial target of Hebron, NE (imagine that). This target could possibly move even futher east as instability looks to be better aound this area. Also shear will be more than sufficent. I am not liking what I see as the day moves where SPC has their moderate risk and I don't think that it should be a moderate risk. Anyways you can consider me on the road as of now.

Good Luck To All Who Are Chasing!

Darin

HAHA...just as I submitted that SPC downgraded
 
Nick, if you read their discussion, they give pretty good reasoning as to why they dropped the MDT. As others have discussed this morning, the low stratus deck might not allow for full destabilization of the atmosphere. I'm sure they'll watch is closely and revise it upward on the 20Z outlook if the stratus breaks up pretty quickly. I think they are erring on the side of caution here which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
 
I personally think they are WAY OFF and need to have a MDT based on tornadoes... And NOW they took away the MDT completely....

..Nick..

Why does this not surprise me :) . Well, I think this is the right move - so I guess we shall see what actually transpires.

Glen
 
>cheers<

(I'd delete this post - but the capacity to do that has disappeared, again....or maybe it never existed in the first place?....)

KR
 
As the day moves on I am liking further east. I am heading out in a few minutes with an initial target of Hebron, NE (imagine that). This target could possibly move even futher east as instability looks to be better aound this area. Also shear will be more than sufficent. I am not liking what I see as the day moves where SPC has their moderate risk and I don't think that it should be a moderate risk. Anyways you can consider me on the road as of now.

Good Luck To All Who Are Chasing!

Darin

HAHA...just as I submitted that SPC downgraded

Good luck Darin - but you might want to bring some sun screen along. Axis of warmest cap looks to run right over Hebron. Better chance for storms back into the KC area - but torn threat there looks minimal right now, or if you go much further west (think Front Range).

Glen
 
Latest GOES image still shows huge area of just garbage cloud cover. The entire western half of Nebraska is under a blanket of clouds and I believe that this will not allow the atmosphere to destabalize anytime in the next, oh, four hours. It certainly hasn't changed at all since I woke up this morning and my current belief is that the cloud cover will persist for quite some time.

The latest RUC run shows that CAPE values will be nadda for all of western Nebraska, and only a modest 500 j/kg for northwest Colorado. If I were to chase purely on CAPE values I'd be chasing southeast Nebraska and a large chunk of Kansas. Capping looks to be pretty strong today, though.

So my personal opinion is that today would be a great day to bbq or get some yard work done. But I think that the severe weather potential is in the middle of a steady spiral in a toilet basin.
 
Svr-warned storm in Briscoe Cty TX is looking increasingly supercellular on radar, should be interesting to see if it can maintain such characteristics in the marginal shear environment that it is in.

Dan
 
Indeed, the right cell split has definently taken over, latest image has the right split near 60dbz with the left split below 45. Other storms are developing farther NE along the dryline in NW OK/SC KS. Like Jeff, I am reluctent to head out givin weak mid-level shear and the fact I am dead tired after 1400 miles the last 2 days (hey.. it's only April) I am keeping an eye on data though and if a cell shows signs of becoming established I may head out.

Of note, a old outflow boundry from last nights MCS has stalled over NE OK/SC KS... a few cu have begun developing near the OFB well east of the dryline. A quick visual observation outside from ICT indicates a few TCU trying to establish themselves, cap however should be well in place. Current conditions at the house are 84/67 with a S wind at 10-20mph.
 
Still not too optimistic storms will ever develop during daylight hours over nw KS. Still no sign of increased cumulus development despite mesoanalyses showing weaking cin owing to large scale ascent across ne CO. With the new convection to the south potentially intercepting some of the developing low-level jet flow, this may further decrease the expected increase in convergence which should occur in the next few hours. Nevertheless - can't rule out completely convection developing - and still it's the most favorable environment given convection. I recall a nice DQ in Stockton. Time for some ice cream?

Glen
 
I'm surely regretting classifying the area as a HIGH risk earlier, I guess I should have considered the cloud cover more....

I still have some hope for that whole area.... But if stuff don't get going in a couple of hours, Then forget about it....

..Nick..
 
The Colorado gang and I are sitting at the Holiday Inn Express in McCook, NE... I, personally, am not as excited as I could be... having some doubts, but I think we're about as good in position as we can be right now. Gonna hang here in McCook for a bit and see what happens..
 
Indeed, the right cell split has definently taken over, latest image has the right split near 60dbz with the left split below 45.

Now the cell has really turned right, propagating SE, with other cells that may be left splits screaming NNE away from it. It looks HP-ish though, but who knows. Excellent velocity couplet on it though!

Dan
 
Pretty sweet supe near Turkey, Texas (if I'm looking at the map right). Wouldn't be surprised if this goes TOR warned pretty soon here. Absolutely incredible velocity signatures (along with pretty decent hook echo). Only concern is that the low rel. humidity in the BL will keep it relatively high based. No doubt it has some HUGE hail.

Gabe
 
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