Taylor Campbell
I've been interested in Monday for the Southeast after watching the GFS for so long, but we'll see what the NAM and further runs hold before I start thinking about skipping class to chase. 
Wishcasting 2011!
- Thread starter Andrew Stoller
- Start date
Andrew Stoller
EF5
Oklahoma has potential tomorrow as temps in the mid to upper 60s combined with 60 degree dews give way to modest instability. The upper pattern is lacking as the long wave trough is still back west, but it's a start!
Skip Talbot
EF5
Hey folks,
This is a good place to discuss possible pattern changes we see coming up in the long range models. However, if you're looking at a particular day, its best to start a FCST thread in the Target Area. If you don't feel the post merits a new thread in the Target Area, then, to be blunt, its probably not worth posting here either. Those new to the site and new to forecasting, by all means, please post your questions about particular patterns or setups in the Educational Forum where you can get answers without fear of posting in the wrong area or of being looked down upon. For future reference, posts about current severe weather events will be moved to the Target Area or removed from this forum. That way we don't have different forecast threads going for one day or one giant sprawling thread speculating each upcoming system. Thanks
This is a good place to discuss possible pattern changes we see coming up in the long range models. However, if you're looking at a particular day, its best to start a FCST thread in the Target Area. If you don't feel the post merits a new thread in the Target Area, then, to be blunt, its probably not worth posting here either. Those new to the site and new to forecasting, by all means, please post your questions about particular patterns or setups in the Educational Forum where you can get answers without fear of posting in the wrong area or of being looked down upon. For future reference, posts about current severe weather events will be moved to the Target Area or removed from this forum. That way we don't have different forecast threads going for one day or one giant sprawling thread speculating each upcoming system. Thanks
Derek Weston
EF5
Long range GFS showing a very active pattern for later March as of 12z 3/10/2011 run.
A would be significant outbreak on the 25th in Eastern KS into Missouri. The weekend before that likely having a few good opportunities in the plains as well. Finally some decent moisture return and CAPE > 1500 J/kg.
Will it verify? Who knows. Enough to get the juices flowing for me, though.
A would be significant outbreak on the 25th in Eastern KS into Missouri. The weekend before that likely having a few good opportunities in the plains as well. Finally some decent moisture return and CAPE > 1500 J/kg.
Will it verify? Who knows. Enough to get the juices flowing for me, though.
Rob H
EF5
Today's 12z is really exciting to see. It looks like the GFS has some zonal flow keeping the disturbances out of the Plains and allowing some moisture to accumulate. 2-3 amplified troughs coming through with some deep surface lows afterwards that could potentially give us a few days of chasing. Yesterday the GFS was hinting at maybe the 20th-22nd, and the 12z run today is suggesting more along the lines of the 18th-20th. I'm not sure how that 996mb low gets from the Pacific to NE in just 12 hours, but as I'm looking out my office window at 2 ft. of snow on the ground I'm willing to suspend disbelief and engage in some positive wishcasting
Andrew Stoller
EF5
It's a ways out, and the GFS has been semi-consistent yet wavering a little, but it's showing a massive trough with great moisture return into mid to late next week for all of the high plains into western KS and points north and south. My fingers are crossed. 
