• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Winter Storms.. So Hard To Predict

Joined
Oct 2, 2006
Messages
855
Location
Norman, OK
Low Pressure Systems associated with winter storms have sooo many variables.. The slightest moisture/temp/path/strength/warm vs cold sector/ can have massive effects on the storm.. A typical mid latitude cyclone, associtated with summer severe wx, can produce severe weather, in a variety of conditions. If the environment lacks shear, it may be able to make it up in CAPE and other forms of instability. And vice versa. In the summer, being in the warm and cold sector, doesnt really have much of an effect as temps dont really differ as much.. Maybe it is just me.. But it would seem, that a winter storm hold more bust potential.. With more variables, that can effect the final results.
 
I find winter storms easier to forecast since they are generally driven by sysnoptic scale processes. There are certainly mesoscale features to deal with such as banding and lake effect snow but on the whole you are dealing with synoptic scale lift and the models are far superior on the synoptic scale than the mesoscale. For me, the toughest part of a winter storm forecast is start time (saturation), precip type, and time of changeover for differing types. Lake effect storms offer additional challanges (huge difference in snow over very small areas) Models seem to do a better job on the synoptic scale during summer since systems tend to move slower. Slower propagating systems mean less dramatic changes moving through data voids and a couple extra model runs to pin things down. One of the biggest challanges for a convective forecast and especially a severe convective forecast is resolving the mesoscale features a couple days in advance if even possible in some cases. I've always said day 2 convection is a function of day 1 convection. The synoptic features like fronts are probably well advertised/forecast but figuring out where the OFB is going to be or finding that sneaky 700-mb wave can be quite challenging. Models simply don't handle these small scale features well with much lead time. IT may be interesting to nore the NWS will put out a winter storm watch some 30 hours in advance but the SPC will rarely put out a severe storm or tornado watch box more than 6 hours in advance. This should show the degree of confidence the forecasters have for each situation.
 
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