weather patterns

[Danny Neal]

2003 and 2004 were big years for tornadoes while 2005 and 2006 so far have been downers in the sense that many chasers are frustrated........is there any specific weather patterns like el nino or la nina that can project a busy or a boring year? i remember reading something in a local newspaper from tom skilling a couple years ago that predicted that 2004 would be a busy severe weather year i was just wondering how he knew that???

 

[Jeff Snyder]

2003 and 2004 were big years for tornadoes while 2005 and 2006 so far have been downers in the sense that many chasers are frustrated........is there any specific weather patterns like el nino or la nina that can project a busy or a boring year? i remember reading something in a local newspaper from tom skilling a couple years ago that predicted that 2004 would be a busy severe weather year i was just wondering how he knew that???
[/b]

Not very well more than a month or two ahead of time. Global circulation patterns may give you some insight in the several weeks to maybe a month or two time period if the synoptic pattern may be a "climatologically-favorable" severe weather producer POSSIBLY somewhere in the U.S. at some time, but there would obviously be no details (maybe something amounting to "the upper-level wavetrain will probably be active and progressive"). Setups in the 5-15 day period may be anticipated if predictability is high / confidence is greater-than-normal (lower ensemble spreads, etc). More specifics of most setups (save the "synoptically-evident" 5-4-03-type of setups) aren't usually captured until the <48-hrs period. The particular details, as we all know, may not be known until we're within 12 hours of convective initiation.

See Schaefer, J.T., and F.B. Tatom, 1998: The Relationship between El Nino, La Nina and United States Tornado Activity. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN

I don't know much of Skilling, but it's important to look at all forecasts from a person before jumping on ship. Someone may have verified their "more-near-less"-than climatology forecast in terms of tornadoes across the US one year (like you say Skilling did in 2004), but what about all the other years? Many folks can claim to "hit" their forecast some particular year, but they don't mention that many other years missed their forecast. Not saying this is the case, but just something important to remember.

 

[Danny Neal]

Not very well more than a month or two ahead of time. Global circulation patterns may give you some insight in the several weeks to maybe a month or two time period, but there would obviously be no details (maybe something amounting to "the upper-level wavetrain will probably be active and progressive").

See Schaefer, J.T., and F.B. Tatom, 1998: The Relationship between El Nino, La Nina and United States Tornado Activity. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN

I don't know much of Skilling, but it's important to look at all forecasts from a person before jumping on ship. Someone may have verified their "more-near-less"-than climatology forecast in terms of tornadoes across the US one year (like you say Skilling did in 2004), but what about all the other years? Many folks can claim to "hit" their forecast some particular year, but they don't mention that many other years missed their forecast. Not saying this is the case, but just something important to remember.
[/b]

thanks for the insight,

i was just wondering if theres anything i can pick apart from the forecast models for a decide to plan a trip i dont wana waste money and time on chasing where nothing will happen, well next fall*2007* i should be transfering to the OU to continue my degree in meteorology and earth sciences so i hope to get a better knowlegde on what to look for

 

[Andy Wehrle]

is there any specific weather patterns like el nino or la nina that can project a busy or a boring year?[/b]

Actually, people were predicting an active 2006 based on pattern recognition and analogs. There were lots of tornadoes including some major outbreaks in March and April, but chasers were either "saving their money for May", or the tornadoes happened after dark, in bad terrain, and were fast-moving.

 

[Danny Neal]

Actually, people were predicting an active 2006 based on pattern recognition and analogs. There were lots of tornadoes including some major outbreaks in March and April, but chasers were either "saving their money for May", or the tornadoes happened after dark, in bad terrain, and were fast-moving.
[/b]

i was thinking about that, but since it was so early in the "normal" chase season i was thinking there would be better things to come in the late april - early june season? i know there is no REAL season because its so unpredictable like last years november outbreaks