Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Jesse Risley]

The moisture quality issue may well affect the southern Plains season. However, I have all summer off, so it gives me a wide latitude to chase many more setups than most can get to. While I'm fortunate in that aspect, it has left me with the realization that, as long as time is available and you are able to commit to taking chances, there has yet to be a "bad" season for me. There will be tornadoes. It may not be a repeat of 2011 or 2013, where a disproportional amount of chasers "scored" major tornadoes, some to a historic extent, but I am betting there will be at least pockets of active, rewarding setups across the Midwest, the northern Plains, and perhaps the lower Mississippi Valley.

With this having so far been a pretty typical winter, I don't think we'll see a repeat of last year with the strong cold fronts make such unusually late, southward progression to impact GOM moisture quality, though I could be proved wrong because it's still only the second week of January. That is, however, a good thing thus far in that last year's early season problems may be mitigated in that regard.

 

[Skip Talbot]

I'll guarantee this forecast: 1250 tornadoes total +/- 750 and several of them will be very photogenic Great Plains tornadoes. Not sure if they'll be in Texas or South Dakota, but definitely within a day's drive, so you just gotta go get 'em! Several chasers will have career seasons too I'm sure.

 

[calvinkaskey]

Are there any eastern US chasers, ie from Ohio se to North Carolina and ne of there? What are your thoughts on those areas?

 

[Michael Gavan]

I'll guarantee this forecast: 1250 tornadoes total +/- 750 and several of them will be very photogenic Great Plains tornadoes. Not sure if they'll be in Texas or South Dakota, but definitely within a day's drive, so you just gotta go get 'em! Several chasers will have career seasons too I'm sure.

I think you hit it on the head Skip. Great show BTW.

Really we should answer this question this way. "How do you intend to approach 2015's tornado season and why will you succeed" Not simply, "will there be tornadoes, where or will it suck this year." I could just cut out my chase week last year, and replace it with a visit to Nebraska and a visit to SD on the right days and 2014 is the best year of chasing I've had instead of one of the worst. 2011 sucked for me for reasons outside of tornado quality/quantity and yet was awesome in terms of raw numbers.

So I'll answer differently. 2015 will be a better year for me. Last year I decided I need to be more available to chase, and I need a better chase vehicle I also needed to upgrade to 4G/LTE. I'm 3/3. I'm also always getting better at forecasting. Due to my distance fine tuning 2-5 day out forecasts are more critical.

Admittedly though, Climatology isn't my strong suit, I fall back on all of you for that, and that's why I'm here in January!

 

[Warren Faidley]

I don't see any drastic changes in the overall climatology to think this coming season will be any different than last year, or the last 3 or 4 years. In fact, I read an AMS article yesterday noting "It's now or never for El Niño," so I don't think you can factor it in ATM.

I would guess the usual potential for a few serious tornadoes or outbreaks in the deep south, followed by the typical transitional movement toward the north and northwest. No reason to see any changes in the drought conditions out west, so the productive DL will likely end up somewhere just west of El Reno. Although last year was rather tame in the OKC area compared to 2013, I believe the area will be back under the gun since the timing of max storm intensity (because of DL placement) seems to favor that region. Hopefully not.

I'm betting more on the Northern Plains in late May and early June, similar to last year, with fortune and glory for those who stick it out past June 15 or so.

Regardless, I look forward to the travel and seeing my chase friends no matter what the sky does.

W.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Absolutely! Like Warren said, no matter what the weather, it's always great to see friends and travel the open road! I can't wait!

 

[James Gustina]

Its starting to look like a real crapshoot for the drought unless something in February changes drastically. The Panhandle is definitely doing better than it was but that SPS-ALT-LAW triangle is still under an absolutely debilitating drought.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Its starting to look like a real crapshoot for the drought unless something in February changes drastically. The Panhandle is definitely doing better than it was but that SPS-ALT-LAW triangle is still under an absolutely debilitating drought.

That's a very small area to be worried about synoptic scale processes this far out. It's also still too early to determine what will become of this drought. If you compare the current drought monitor to this same point in recent years, there isn't a strong indication one way or the other how the following tornado season will evolve. At the beginning of 2014 the drought wasn't as bad in that area as it is now, but it was ridiculously dry in that area in the winter and spring, so the drought got much worse as tornado season approached. On the other side of the spectrum, the drought was really bad in January 2013 in that same region. Although the spring of 2013 was cold, neither it nor the winter were terribly dry, but the drought maintained itself over a large region and we still had historic tornadoes (just localized and isolated events).

I think there's still plenty of time to wait and gauge what is happening with soil moisture and drought conditions across this area. It only takes a few good weeks of rain to swing things way over to the other side.

Now about this SUPERDUPERMEGA El Nino that hasn't come to fruition...at least CPC is predicting above normal precipitation over the next one and three months for pretty much the entire southwest and southern plains. That's a pretty good sight.

 

[James Gustina]

That's a very small area to be worried about synoptic scale processes this far out. It's also still too early to determine what will become of this drought.

Oh I wasn't trying to insinuate it would directly affect the overall pattern in the grand scheme of things, just that it's crummy how that area can't catch a break. That massive amount of rain during I think October or November was really the only noteworthy precip event down that way that I can think of since the summer. The TX PH managed to get pretty far down with those two weeks of rain so hopefully something similar across the High Plains is coming down the pipes closer to February.

 

[James Gustina]

Latest UNL drought monitor is not particularly encouraging for the S Plains but it's hopefully a wet wintry mix out west in the Panhandles and W Oklahoma.

 

[Hank Schyma]

Elements you can count on every storm season: Chasers whining about tornado famine. Chasers whining about missing tornado feast. Chasers whining about death ridge in May. Lots of saturation and clarity added to storm clouds in photoshop.

 

[Adam Lucio]

I for one am getting sick of the constant blocky patterns we can't seem to get out of. Whatever the cause be it ocean currents, temperatures, polar vortexes, HAARP, Obama...unless we see a break down of these blocky patterns I forsee it being another sub par year in terms of tornado numbers. Fewer opportunities to get them, but Im sure there will be a couple big days thrown into the mix. There always is. Basically I expect the 2012-13-14 trend to continue.

Seeing the 70 degree isotherm nosing into Nebraska already on the GFS concerns me. The atmosphere, she is heating up early.

 

[Caleb Grunzke]

The only blocking pattern I'm in favor of is one that has a negatively-tilted amplified trough over the western plains

 

[Warren Faidley]

Things have changed a lot since I began chasing (tornadoes) in May of 1987.

You could almost always count on good chasing anywhere from Midland to South Dakota during any given week if you were willing to drive. You often had a southern and a northern target on the same day. There were crappy years, but they were an oddity.

Now days you have to find some way to chase in "periods" and "regions" instead of thinking about any given week in a specific location. This favors those who can chase when and where they want from March through June, including those lucky chasers who live in target areas. I don't consider myself one of those individuals, especially given the market for images and footage is dryer than the drought and I don't like to charge adventure clients for chasing during dud weeks.

Until the UA/DL/drought pattern becomes more active over larger areas for extended periods in areas where chasing is easier (west of OKC / ICT) it's going to be a few select days in May when the cap wimps out in a favorable area and a few days in June up north when the timing is right and the LCL's are not to the moon.

Interestingly, I see more and more chasers traveling into the eastern regions of TA to either luck out and find a bald spot in the woods and/or lurk behind and feed off disasters. I'm hoping this is not a new trend as "chasing" becomes harder and the glory of arriving in ground zero for media coverage and personal glory takes center stage.

W.

 

[James Gustina]

I for one am getting sick of the constant blocky patterns we can't seem to get out of. Whatever the cause be it ocean currents, temperatures, polar vortexes, HAARP, Obama...unless we see a break down of these blocky patterns I forsee it being another sub par year in terms of tornado numbers. Fewer opportunities to get them, but Im sure there will be a couple big days thrown into the mix. There always is. Basically I expect the 2012-13-14 trend to continue.

Seeing the 70 degree isotherm nosing into Nebraska already on the GFS concerns me. The atmosphere, she is heating up early.

There's one hell of a thermal ridge setting up over the Four Corners and onto the Plains it looks like with northerly sfc winds spreading all the way back down past Cuba per the GFS and ECMWF. I was originally optimistic on avoiding a stagnant flow pattern but it would seem that I had misplaced faith.