Thoughts about the upcoming 2015 chase season

[Shane Adams]

I've discovered chasing can be a lot like playing cornerback. It helps to have a short memory, and always be looking to the next play.

 

[James Gustina]

I've discovered chasing can be a lot like playing cornerback. It helps to have a short memory, and always be looking to the next play.

I like that analogy, and it really underlines that there's no point in me crapping on the future when 2014 is gone.

 

[Caleb Grunzke]

I've discovered chasing can be a lot like playing cornerback. It helps to have a short memory, and always be looking to the next play.

Unless you're the Richard Sherman of chasing in which case you never bust and are THE GREATEST CHASER OF ALL TIME!

 

[James Gustina]

Unless you're the Richard Sherman of chasing in which case you never bust and are THE GREATEST CHASER OF ALL TIME!

404 Error coverage against the Packers not found

 

[calvinkaskey]

After my job change last April (yeah, yeah... mini violins playing) I'm just happy to be getting back out to the Plains this season. Picking early to mid June this year to try something different and to avoid some of the chaser hordes, but will chase all the major set ups regardless. Most of the stuff around Michigan tends to hit in May/June anyway, so at least we'll be around for most of that (if they do occur). Yes, I said that because one can only hope in the Great Lake state..

Hey you never know. North Carolina had 35 tornadoes last year similar to illinois, more than Indian, more than Minnesota, north dakota and about the same as south dakota.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2014_annual_summary.html

 

[calvinkaskey]

I live in southeast PA (Philadelphia area). I head out to the Plains every year but don't do any local chasing here where I live. Sure, I keep tabs on the weather and get excited when we are under the gun. But chasing around here just isn't worth it - trees, hills, buildings, traffic, low clouds and haze... Not to mention that nothing much ends up happening most of the time. Primary severe mode is squall lines. I definitely don't spend any time on long range prognosticating for the local area, I just try to enjoy what I can if it's coming through my neighborhood. I won't drive any distances to position.


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There are lots of weak short lived tornadoes that aren't recorded. Ne pa had 4 tornadoes in an area of maybe a 6th or less of the area of pa. There were two in my county in N.Y. last year, one wasn't reported. I got 10 full minutes of tornado video in eastern NC last year. I might have gotten another tornado in W.V. but I got lost. I hit several tornado warnings in extreme southern Ohio, I might have seen something but I went into the woods, instead of being in an area of high visibility where I was at the time of the warning. You also don't have to go out west to get 70 mph winds from a t-storm or large hail. I was chasing two years ago and my house got hit with golfball-sized hail and I live in N.Y. lol. Two years ago I also got a video of what looks like an intense f-2 funnel cloud in N.Y.

 

[Shane Adams]

There are lots of weak short lived tornadoes that aren't recorded. Ne pa had 4 tornadoes in an area of maybe a 6th or less of the area of pa. There were two in my county in N.Y. last year, one wasn't reported. I got 10 full minutes of tornado video in eastern NC last year. I might have gotten another tornado in W.V. but I got lost. I hit several tornado warnings in extreme southern Ohio, I might have seen something but I went into the woods, instead of being in an area of high visibility where I was at the time of the warning. You also don't have to go out west to get 70 mph winds from a t-storm or large hail. I was chasing two years ago and my house got hit with golfball-sized hail and I live in N.Y. lol. Two years ago I also got a video of what looks like an intense f-2 funnel cloud in N.Y.

Couple 'o things....

(1) I'd love to see your NC tornado video, is it online anywhere?

(2) What's an F2 funnel? How do you reach that conclusion and what are the criteria?

 

[Robert Forry]

We about got to our average here Calvin, but most of these hit at night, or in difficult places to chase (north of M10 where it starts go get heavily wooded). I don't recall seeing or hearing about a single photogenic tube the entire year. The last one like that hit on 5/28/13: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMGXJcYozR0 Of course, I just had to end up behind it in the RFD looking at it through the rain.

 

[Michael Gavan]

I like where this is going.

96 Hr rainfall, Feb 3. DeltaP.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...nding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Cliffs notes: .5-3" rain over virtually all of Texas. Especially LBB/FDR/AMA. This after .25"-1.5" over most of Texas today.

 

[James Gustina]

If the snow to liquid ratio is anywhere around the average 10:1 for the TX PH some places are easily seeing .75-1.25 inches of equivalent rainfall from this when it all melts off.

 

[Jeff Duda]

It's winter. This type of blocking pattern can be expected. If it's the middle of March and we're still looking like this then I'll be worried. But enough with the negative vibes.

Agreed. Some people on this thread are getting way too far ahead of themselves. There's no point in analyzing conditions every single day at this range. Just calm your t-ts and let the atmosphere do what it's gonna do. By the time spring rolls around we'll have a much better idea of what the season my have in store.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Agreed. Some people on this thread are getting way too far ahead of themselves. There's no point in analyzing conditions every single day at this range. Just calm your t-ts and let the atmosphere do what it's gonna do. By the time spring rolls around we'll have a much better idea of what the season my have in store.

Just like a lot of us like to forecast a severe event 4 or 5 days out. Nevertheless, it's always fun to try to diagnose the atmosphere and give opinions on what may happen down the road.

 

[Wesley Luginbyhl]

If the Southern Plains has another bad season, then so will I. My seasons are tied greatly to how the Panhandles do. I will just say 2 things for the up coming year. 1: I am sitting under a foot of snow in Amarillo currently. That would be ~1" of rain that will slowly soak in over the next few weeks. Major boost to any drought conditions, which are definitely better than previous years at this point. 2: (related to what Brett Roberts posted a few pages back) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs3qW_Mu6-E - I shot that in March 2006. 1 year later I was seeing a ton of tubes in March about a county from there. It can change around here not time at all. If you dont like the weather, wait 5 minutes...

Video linked above -
Watch video >

 

[Adam Lucio]

Agreed. Some people on this thread are getting way too far ahead of themselves. There's no point in analyzing conditions every single day at this range. Just calm your t-ts and let the atmosphere do what it's gonna do. By the time spring rolls around we'll have a much better idea of what the season my have in store.

Then what, in the actual hell, is the point of this thread? Its fun (sometimes) to speculate. You'd think a forum made up weather junkies would enjoy discussions that include observation, climatology, experience and theories. Might as well start posting memes.

 

[Caleb Grunzke]

Alright then...