State of the Chase Season 2025

[Jason N]

Much of your post seems reasonable, logical. But, I'm not sure I'd go down the 2020 route with that year as an ENSO analogue.
Reasons for that include using ENSO's prior months' influence (a.k.a. the lag) as well as the direction & magnitude of the change of phase, if any.
One can visualize scenarios where the eastern halves of OK & KS are more active than the western portions. Looking forward to getting out, too.

oh yeah!. I certainly hope I didn't come off as trying to sell it as fact, it's why I said, I wonder lol. I was just panning across the historical and looking for some similarities, and I thought 2020 seemed like a "loose" comparison, but you're not wrong, lag time and all that. I just don't want to see what happened for a few years where transition to a summer-time ridge happened well before it was supposed to. That said, Im going out twice this year, End of May, Middle of June, so I'll just remain hopeful for a good upper-level pattern or at worst case, some sub synoptic pattern for boom or bust scenarios lol.

 

[William Monfredo]

I just don't want to see what happened for a few years...

2020...striking fear & panic into the hearts & minds of chasers everywhere... for all the wrong reasons.

I made my iPhone wallpaper a picture my chase partner took of me with my head bowed...

I found a nice, peaceful video for you James and posted it below.

 

[William Monfredo]

Time to get serious next week / weekend for some chasers? Too early for an event post, but large trough moves onshore Thursday, then strong, lee-side, surface-low in CO developing Friday, but big spread on track, timing, precipitation type and mode this far out. For ex., Omaha mentions possible snow band, to a shot at severe weather, to maybe dry slotted w/ no precip. It will be a highly-amplified, brute of a system regardless, w/ strong wind fields expected, but a difference this time appears to be better moisture getting pulled up, with 60s dew points in AR and 50s for MO.

 

[Jeff House]

With the time change this weekend my season begins. Yes Saturday March 15 catches my attention. Could be a Mid-South and surrounding areas days. Or, the system lumbers out in two pieces and all we get is heavy rain.

At any rate I will chase Dixie. No more snobby, I live here and even I don't chase the South. While 2024 rewarded patience, waiting for the Plains has not paid off most recent years. Chase early! Chase often!

 

[Jason N]

it won't be long before Jeff D comes in and says, this line of discussion should be talked about in Target Area weather lol...

personal opinion: I'm just not a fan of Dixie chases at all. minus a few miles of good open terrain in MS. and some here and there in AL. Road networks, towns, more red lights and people, it's the same kind of chasing as in the Carolinas, it just takes a lot of the "fun" (meaning purity with lower risk, higher enjoyment) out of it. The other side of information sharing and observation for more warning safety by helping people, I'm with it!.

14/15 Mar: at this moment where the models are MO/IA/MN with low topped SC with closed 500mb TOR risk, and then down TN/MS/AL for the better moisture fields, but the hodo's Shear looks ample, so like you said Jeff H, training heavy rain maybe as well with embedded QLCS/LEWP spin ups seems possible. ( another reason I dont like chasing Dixie most of the time. discreet cells dont seem to happen as often.. its all waiting in heavy rain for the QLCS or maybe just out ahead of the main line a quick cell to pop which makes chasing down a embedded spin up inside of a line annoying ( to me anyway ).

 

[Dan Robinson]

Quite the March wave train we're in. Friday and/or Saturday will definitely deserve a thread once it becomes clear which one is the primary day, hopefully in the next day or 2. It could be that both days will. Everything seems to hinge on how fast the influence of the preceding trough can clear out and allow moisture to surge north. We've seen plenty of these turn out to be nothingburgers though (including this last one), even these blockbusters have plenty of failure modes.

 

[William Monfredo]

BTW, OK & TX Panhandle chasers, OKC's KOCO 5 has made an interesting prediction for a month or two ahead. First, next month 2025...

Then the "big" month 2025...

I imagine they're "seeing" good moisture & favorable trajectories from the Gulf to predict these. At least they don't set up the dry line over OKC !

 

[Jeff House]

Could be tough to hold the DL west of I-35. Might as well chase less crowded hills and trees in the Mid South and Deep South!