State of the Chase Season 2025

[Jeff House]

Chase early and often - even Southern slop - is my attitude. Just in case those long-range forecasts have merit.

Wednesday looks uninspiring in the South but we have NCAA play-in games. Midwest could do something isolated.
Sunday is pretty much a Deep South we'll see. I'm not worried early season, just ready to chase anything.

 

[Jason N]

even Southern slop

this makes me feel like I'm at a Lizards Thicket, or Cracker Barrel.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

I'm not impressed with the upcoming pattern. Cold fronts, then ridging. There is no real sign of a good trough in the West/Rockies in the ensembles or weeklies. Maybe early-mid April?

 

[William Monfredo]

Maybe early-mid April?

Yes frankly, that was the underlying theme of my post on Monday afternoon.
The deeper, richer moisture & associated strong baroclinicity takes the very pause you mention. Actually...
I don't mind if it holds off a bit; I like warmer, surface temps & slower, storm motions w/ later, further north & west events.

 

[Jeff House]

Alright the SPC has reloaded for the coming weekend March 29-30! ECMWF has a funky Texas low trying to gum up the works. In May I'd be worried about that. End of March I figure the mid-latitude jet stream will exert its influence and shear out the pesky low.

That situation may be a greater concern for Plains chasers, but you always have to like the Day Before the Day. I will defer Saturday to Plains members, since I'm still South focused this early in the season.

Sunday the Mid-South looks best to me, but not 30% yet. I infer the large 15% is more about placement uncertainty than intensity. Midwest and Tennessee Valley are conditional on a bigger warm sector. MCS action could limit Sunday to the Mid-South or even parts of the Deep South.

Just right morning showers after Saturday night could lay down favorable boundaries. Also multiple days of return flow is bullish. Wednesday is the last scrub trough through the Great Lakes. The South has Thursday night through Sunday morning to charge up!

 

[Jeff House]

Well the SPC dropped Saturday and broadened Sunday. Could get started MO/AR before rumbling into IL/KY and the rest of the Mid-South. SPC adds Monday on the East Coast. Joy!

Looking ahead the first 8-10 days of April could be fairly active too. While the CFS has a less classic 500 mb pattern, most here have probably seen the CFS severe parameters. Not everyone has access to the ECMWF ensembles so here they are. Please do not share for commercial use.

Sunday could be just the start of the severe weather buffet line for chasers. We'll see how things evolve.

 

[William Monfredo]

Mid-South looks best to me...

Good time this Spring to live in your neck of the woods. Not to mention, you've got the Jack Daniel's Distillery nearby in Lynchburg, TN!

 

[Matthew Crowther]

The differences between models for the weekend have gotten even more significant. The EC and GFS are on different planets.

 

[William Monfredo]

...upcoming pattern. Cold fronts...

After Sunday's system, a (CFS) trend exists over the next couple of weeks for plenty of cold working deeply south & east.
While these temp anomalies may not be perfectly accurate, I do believe they show the lagged effects of the strat warm.
In the contest between mT and cP/mP, the overall victor appears to be the cold pushing towards the Gulf.
While not unexpected, Plains chasers remain on hold, and hopefully the latter half of April turns around.

 

[Jeff House]

Cold fronts happen in April. So far the SSW has failed to hold a connection to the troposphere.



Still have a nice 8-14 day forecast for the general weather pattern. Whether individual systems align right is a separate question.

 

[William Monfredo]

Whether individual systems align right is a separate question.

True words. I do get a bit impatient living further north and west. And I'm not a fan of confluent flow at 500mb. But...
You live in a very beautiful state, a favorite, and you've got opportunities to get out for convective weather at the minimum.

 

[William Monfredo]

This is not gloom and doom, just a lot of curiosity, as I generally don't look this far out, but...
Given a 30-day wait from the peak of the March strat warm, we might see the pattern strongly affected after the first week of April.

 

[Jeff House]

Chase Sunday and Wednesday or forever hold your peace! Well at least until May, ha.

Yeah William I am blessed to live in East Tenn. Thought about just enjoy lovely spring weather. Alas the Mid-South may be calling Sunday. See Target Area. Then Wednesday we might do it all again!

Issued Friday valid for Wednesday, April 2. After that indeed the upper-level pattern gets hideous for chasing.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Yeah William I am blessed to live in East Tenn.

Remember that when you miss all the mesoscale accidents on the high plains in June

 

[Warren Faidley]

Multiple models getting really jiggy about a potential outbreak over the central US next week. The SPC is already using some strong wording about the potential. If I was not attending the Tropical Weather Conference next week, I might be watching this set-up for deployment.