State of the Chase Season 2025

[Drew Terril]

I was keeping an eye on tomorrow, but looks like I'm going to stay home barring a boundary from an earlier MCS setting up near me. I just made a pretty big purchase, so the gas budget isn't there to make a trip down to S IL or W KY. I am keeping an eye on Wednesday as well, although I'll be limited that day by when I get off work, and will be working within the same budgetary restrictions.

I think for those with the funding and ability to take off work at a moment's notice, there will likely be ample opportunity to chase. I've always been hesitant to burn half or more of my available vacation days for a chasecation, since I have to schedule that well in advance. But if I'm realistic with myself, that's probably something I'll have to consider in future years. Even when I was still living in Oklahoma, I never had the right timing to be out on the big days (or didn't have the money when I did have flexibility).

 

[Sean Ramsey]

Sure wish some of these setups would realize we're on daylight savings time now and it's ok to initiate before sunset.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Sure wish some of these setups would realize we're on daylight savings time now and it's ok to initiate before sunset.

Was just about to say, Tuesday's setup looks ideal for a Plains outbreak if only the moisture were about 6 hours faster.

 

[William Monfredo]

An amplified, stormy, quasi-stationary pattern yields a daze of precipitation Tuesday night into the weekend (GFS). Impressive.

 

[Paul Bird]

View attachment 26942
An amplified, stormy, quasi-stationary pattern yields a daze of precipitation Tuesday night into the weekend (GFS). Impressive.

This should be a good sign for May with the drought relief in the SW. Iirc, the drought was a big hamper on May being active this year, so hopefully this helps change things a bit.

 

[JamesCaruso]

If only those yellows and browns were in the southwest!

 

[Jeff House]

Monitoring Saturday for a possible Deep South storm chase. Regrettably I could not get out to the Delta on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday have potential but I can't get the cards to fall during the week.

Saturday the main trough comes out. That's usually boom or bust. Friday the Deep South should be fairly clear and warm. Challenge will be how thunderstorms evolve in Arkansas. Saturday can we get a pre-frontal trough going in Mississippi?

Current upper air progs are good enough. LLJ responds to the upper jet coming out. Turning with height is adequate if the low levels back in response to an Arkansas surface low. If the low fails those hodographs might get too messy. Everything will depend on how the trough ejects.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

After this round, CFS and Euro weeklies look pretty grim for at least the next two weeks.

 

[JamesCaruso]

After this round, CFS and Euro weeklies look pretty grim for at least the next two weeks.

How meaningful are these 30-day 500mb forecasts? I don’t mean how reliable are they, I mean how meaningful? I’m not really even sure how to interpret them. Isn’t it just an averaging of the anticipated pattern over that time? And if so, doesn’t that mean it could theoretically be averaging two weeks of death ridge with two weeks of good troughing?

 

[Jeff House]

Next week looks like a down week as the big freeze hits the Midwest. Days 11-15 don't look great either, but anything can happen within the mean forecast after that. Here is the ECMWF 15-30 day 500 mb heights and QPF. That's normal precip. (boring chart not shown).

One can infer a couple systems. The 500 mb chart is only a mean; so, one can expect fluctuations. Finally the EC is the more pessimistic of the two. CFS actually has a discernable trough days 15-20, which is not really in conflict with the EC two-week mean.

EC 500 mb, EC precip. Both days 15-30. CFS 500 mb days 15-20

 

[Warren Faidley]

Beginning to enter the "fringe-zone" of long range forecasts for my period of interest starting around April 15+. Going by my long range model of choice (NCEP Ensembles) and a blending of GFS/ECMWF, there could be some westward extent of possibilities after mid-April, but it's a direct flight to Fantasy Island this far out -- without a single free drink coupon. There is no reason to believe this season will be different than other recent drought pattern years, with a few late April chases likely in the MAF region as RH leaks west a few times before the jet retreats north. Soil RH remains bone dry out west. The Dixie to So. Plains handoff is still a few weeks away.

 

[William Monfredo]

...westward extent of possibilities after mid-April...

Welcome back from your conference; what better way to get psyched up?!
Looking forward to some western possibilities after Mid-South settles down.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The cold front this week is shown scouring the Gulf down to the tropics. Medium-to-long range models and ensembles aren't showing much of a recovery for as far out as they go. Good for this to happen now than in May! I could use some downtime, the past 3 weeks have seen virtually nonstop action in the Midwest.

 

[Brett Roberts]

While this past week was hardly a season-saving drought buster, it did at least help scale back the severity of short-term drought for much of OK, N TX, and parts of W TX. The bad news is that the next 10+ days are likely to be bone dry, so the clock is already ticking again.

Areas NW of a line from roughly AMA to WWR to ICT saw little to no benefit from this system, and continue on a trajectory toward daily afternoon moisture mix-outs during peak season unless/until we see a wet system or two displaced N of this week's.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Good for this to happen now than in May!

I feel the same way, I always get nervous that an active April means we are “due” for a shutdown in May…