• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

State of the Chase Season 2025

I was keeping an eye on tomorrow, but looks like I'm going to stay home barring a boundary from an earlier MCS setting up near me. I just made a pretty big purchase, so the gas budget isn't there to make a trip down to S IL or W KY. I am keeping an eye on Wednesday as well, although I'll be limited that day by when I get off work, and will be working within the same budgetary restrictions.

I think for those with the funding and ability to take off work at a moment's notice, there will likely be ample opportunity to chase. I've always been hesitant to burn half or more of my available vacation days for a chasecation, since I have to schedule that well in advance. But if I'm realistic with myself, that's probably something I'll have to consider in future years. Even when I was still living in Oklahoma, I never had the right timing to be out on the big days (or didn't have the money when I did have flexibility).
 
Monitoring Saturday for a possible Deep South storm chase. Regrettably I could not get out to the Delta on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday have potential but I can't get the cards to fall during the week.

Saturday the main trough comes out. That's usually boom or bust. Friday the Deep South should be fairly clear and warm. Challenge will be how thunderstorms evolve in Arkansas. Saturday can we get a pre-frontal trough going in Mississippi?

Current upper air progs are good enough. LLJ responds to the upper jet coming out. Turning with height is adequate if the low levels back in response to an Arkansas surface low. If the low fails those hodographs might get too messy. Everything will depend on how the trough ejects.
 
After this round, CFS and Euro weeklies look pretty grim for at least the next two weeks.

How meaningful are these 30-day 500mb forecasts? I don’t mean how reliable are they, I mean how meaningful? I’m not really even sure how to interpret them. Isn’t it just an averaging of the anticipated pattern over that time? And if so, doesn’t that mean it could theoretically be averaging two weeks of death ridge with two weeks of good troughing?
 
Next week looks like a down week as the big freeze hits the Midwest. Days 11-15 don't look great either, but anything can happen within the mean forecast after that. Here is the ECMWF 15-30 day 500 mb heights and QPF. That's normal precip. (boring chart not shown).

One can infer a couple systems. The 500 mb chart is only a mean; so, one can expect fluctuations. Finally the EC is the more pessimistic of the two. CFS actually has a discernable trough days 15-20, which is not really in conflict with the EC two-week mean.

EC 500 mb, EC precip. Both days 15-30. CFS 500 mb days 15-20
1743781266801.png 1743781317004.png 1743781661456.png
 
Beginning to enter the "fringe-zone" of long range forecasts for my period of interest starting around April 15+. Going by my long range model of choice (NCEP Ensembles) and a blending of GFS/ECMWF, there could be some westward extent of possibilities after mid-April, but it's a direct flight to Fantasy Island this far out -- without a single free drink coupon. There is no reason to believe this season will be different than other recent drought pattern years, with a few late April chases likely in the MAF region as RH leaks west a few times before the jet retreats north. Soil RH remains bone dry out west. The Dixie to So. Plains handoff is still a few weeks away.
 
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