State of the Chase Season 2025

[Warren Faidley]

Dry air invasion of 2025. This was not on the bingo card.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I watched two seasonal forecast videos - Convective Chronicles and Tornado Titans. Both looked at ENSO, Gulf SSTs, and drought conditions, drawing the same conclusion, that two of the three variables are unfavorable, and the season is likely to be below average, particularly in May.

However, it’s interesting that they had different lists of analogue years, with only a couple years appearing on both lists. Here are the two lists. I have starred the years that appear on both lists:

Convective Chronicles (I think these were in order of correlation, but I can’t recall for certain):
1996
2006
1967 *
1984
1981
1989 *
2018

Tornado Titans (these may have also been listed non-chronologically because they are in order of correlation, I’m not sure; there was also a caveat included, that there are “no incredibly strong matches…” :
1967 *
1974
1970
1989 *
2008
2011
2013
2012

I would be much happier with the Tornado Titans list. In fact, I would be thrilled to have any of the four analogue years that were during my chasing career - 2008 and 2013 were very active, on my chase trips at least. Also good for me were 2011 (when I got Canton Lake OK) or 2012 (Lacrosse KS).

If the Convective Chronicles analogues are more reliable, then we’re in trouble; the subset of those years that were during my chasing career I remember being absolutely horrible - 1996, 2006 and 2018.

 

[William Monfredo]

2008 and 2013 were very active

horrible - 1996, 2006 and 2018

I hear what you're saying James and mostly agree.
April, May, & June 2013 tornado frequency registered below average, yet had Moore & El Reno in OK nonetheless.
I'm not familiar with TT's methodology, though.
As far as tornado years go, you can cross 2018 off CC's list, as it was slower, no violent tornadoes, a weak year.
So, 2025 already blows 2018 out of the running, but this year's outbreak locations still hold a lot of similarities to 2006, IMO.
And so we've got our April chill, but there was another year that had a cooler than normal April in the central US....2013.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Just anecdotally, this year has been uncannily similar to 2006 with both the timing (mid-March and then early April, with the latter even falling on the same calendar day!) and geographical location (centered on the mid-MS Valley) of two significant early-season outbreaks.

We can only hope it doesn't follow suit into May, because that was a rough one. However I agree I don't think it's possible to see an April-May much worse than 2018. Late season snow and cold followed by a near immediate flip to a summerlike upper-air pattern with the jet stream going slack across the CONUS, but with early spring moisture issues persisting. It's a wonder we managed to squeeze out Tescott.

 

[Paul Bird]

Seems to be some pretty good agreement among Euro, GEFS and CFS of a pretty active period starting back up again around April 25 onwards.. struggling to decide if I want to start my first two week chasecation around this time as opposed to the traditional late May. Leaving myself only a week for the end of May. Would love to hear others thoughts on if that might be more ideal for this year considering peak season concerns.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Seems to be some pretty good agreement among Euro, GEFS and CFS of a pretty active period starting back up again around April 25 onwards.. struggling to decide if I want to start my first two week chasecation around this time as opposed to the traditional late May. Leaving myself only a week for the end of May. Would love to hear others thoughts on if that might be more ideal for this year considering peak season concerns.

Way too early for me to base any type of deployment plans on long rage models. Model runs that far out are a "suggestion" at best for upper air possibilities, but they are 1635 AD sorcery for RH and surface features. The NCEP Ensembles are always a humble reminder of the insanity after about 7-8 days.

 

[Kem Poyner]

Year after year it seems to be the same on this site. It seems like people always fixate on the negative. Mostly doom and gloom and most years there are several good chase days. Maybe there is not enough moisture for a super outbreak. A bare bones LP supercell in the Texas Panhandle or Colorado would suit me fine. Also if the hoards stay home, better for us.

 

[John Farley]

As always, I am sure there will be some good days, and someone will find the diamond in the rough. That said, my main chase territory is in the southern high plains, and with the persistent drought in the Southwest and the persistent (through most of the winter) western ridging and eastern troughing, my expectations are rather low. The past week was a nice change, with some decent moisture in the southwest, but nowhere enough to overcome the effects of the dry warm winter. And then right back to the western ridge pattern, and looking like it will stay that way for a while. As I said I am sure there will be some good days somewhere, but if this pattern holds they will be probably like the last few years - not obvious well in advance, and perhaps driven by mesoscale features that are challenging to correctly forecast. I hope to get out there a few days and maybe get lucky, but overall my expectations are low.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Year after year it seems to be the same on this site. It seems like people always fixate on the negative. Mostly doom and gloom and most years there are several good chase days. Maybe there is not enough moisture for a super outbreak. A bare bones LP supercell in the Texas Panhandle or Colorado would suit me fine. Also if the hoards stay home, better for us.

Guilty as charged I think it’s unavoidable, when you love something so much, look forward to it all year, have so much invested (time, money, emotion) in a very short window of opportunity (especially for a chase vacationer), you just know that there is (generally) more downside than upside, and you could easily have to wait another whole year to try again, during which a myriad of things could happen that keep you from chasing next time.

Having said that, I agree that an outbreak is not necessary for a good trip. I don’t even necessarily want one. Parameters on outbreak days tend to create issues with storm mode, speed of motion, and even storm selection. I can’t even remember the last time I saw a skeletal, barber pole LP, and would be perfectly content with that over a classic tornadic supercell on a given day, though it probably wouldn’t satisfy me for the season. A sloshing dryline with multiple consecutive days of action sure would be nice, but the threat of a death ridge or northwest flow pattern during a chase vacation (or longer) is real.

I am sure there will be some good days somewhere, but if this pattern holds they will be probably like the last few years - not obvious well in advance, and perhaps driven by mesoscale features that are challenging to correctly forecast. I hope to get out there a few days and maybe get lucky, but overall my expectations are low.

I was hoping that my remote work arrangement would allow me to make shorter, more frequent trips this year, but for me that involves flights, meaning I need a pretty high degree of confidence in advance to justify the time and expense of heading out to the Plains. I’m still planning my “core” chase trip for a little over two weeks late May / early June, but any additional trips before or after may not be viable if this scenario unfolds.

Definitely best to keep expectations low. Expect the downside, and you avoid disappointment, while leaving yourself only upside.

 

[Warren Faidley]

After doing this for over 37 years, here is what I look at every morning when we reach this time of year -- for extended trends. I generally don't deploy full-time until the first week of May, unless there is a mega-event in good terrain. In those situations, I'll consider flying out for a 1-2 day chase.

1: RH. The upper air forecast can be favorable, but without good moisture return, it's no go. I look at several models, including the GFS and ECMWF.

2: Local NWS discussions - extended discussions. I also like to read neighboring offices / states discussions to get an overall opinion.

3: NCEP Ensembles for North America.

4: Upper air models, GFS / ECMWF, etc.

5: SPC extended.

 

[William Monfredo]

The NCEP Ensembles are always a humble reminder of the insanity after about 7-8 days.

An honest & true appraisal from Warren; experience proves this.

...a very short window of opportunity (especially for a chase vacationer)...

I do understand your plight, James. It’s no secret, there’s less tornado days, days on which tornadoes occur. And outbreaks generate the larger numbers for a single day, maybe two, that boost the yearly count. It's happening this year, too.
That’s a somewhat disturbing trend for those on chase vacations with limited time options. It clearly favors residents near locations where the action occurs as well as retired people with both more time & money to chase.

...main chase territory is in the southern high plains...

So, outbreaks account for a major part of the equation. But as I thought about some exceptions, I thought of Colorado with upslope flow where John or Tony might chase, or perhaps coastal locations such as Florida or the Carolinas affected by the sea-breeze front.

A bare bones LP supercell in the Texas Panhandle or Colorado would suit me fine.

Satisfaction-wise, many of us have already seen a whole lot. And bear with me here, but I think for a lot of people, they desire more, better, bigger, stronger, different, closer. My personal exception would be hail; Vivian, SD was more than enough for me!

...best to keep expectations low.

Fine Buddhist wisdom, for sure. But, also best to keep an open mind. I know a night chaser who begged off of the Greensburg, KS setup even after I mentioned to him to wait for new cell production from thunderstorm outflow. And some might know someone that called off afternoon chasing in eastern KS before the Joplin, MO tornado. So, what’s my point? It’s like faith; you’ve got to believe in things you cannot see yet.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The best, multi-day chasing over acceptable landscapes still generally occurs from about May 15th through the first week in June. After the first week in June, the season moves north. This is not exact science, but it's generally true year after year. I believe the drought has limited the number of multi-day events during this period because the DL tends to either mix out or shift east and the jet stream goes into a zonal mode further north. There use to be a set-up called the "sloshing dryline" in western Texas that could produce a week of non-stop action. This is a very rare occurrence now days. There are also more abrupt endings to SP chasing set-ups. Recently, once the last event occurs in late May or early June, there is a week or so break before things recharge further north. I generally head home at this point.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

To get me out into the Plains in April, I need to see a relatively long period with a favorable SW flow pattern, and based on the longer-range models I am seeing, this does not look likely.

 

[Kem Poyner]

Jam

Guilty as charged I think it’s unavoidable, when you love something so much, look forward to it all year, have so much invested (time, money, emotion) in a very short window of opportunity (especially for a chase vacationer), you just know that there is (generally) more downside than upside, and you could easily have to wait another whole year to try again, during which a myriad of things could happen that keep you from chasing next time.

Having said that, I agree that an outbreak is not necessary for a good trip. I don’t even necessarily want one. Parameters on outbreak days tend to create issues with storm mode, speed of motion, and even storm selection. I can’t even remember the last time I saw a skeletal, barber pole LP, and would be perfectly content with that over a classic tornadic supercell on a given day, though it probably wouldn’t satisfy me for the season. A sloshing dryline with multiple consecutive days of action sure would be nice, but the threat of a death ridge or northwest flow pattern during a chase vacation (or longer) is real.



I was hoping that my remote work arrangement would allow me to make shorter, more frequent trips this year, but for me that involves flights, meaning I need a pretty high degree of confidence in advance to justify the time and expense of heading out to the Plains. I’m still planning my “core” chase trip for a little over two weeks late May / early June, but any additional trips before or after may not be viable if this scenario unfolds.

Definitely best to keep expectations low. Expect the downside, and you avoid disappointment, while leaving yourself only upside.

James, I am right there with you. I live in Phoenix AZ. I started going out to the central plains in 1997. I have only missed 2 years. I drive out in my chase truck. I have been a hairstylist for over 30 years so I have a huge clientele. When I see something that is forecasted for a couple days or more I head out. I have to start moving clients at that point which is a freaking nightmare.

 

[Mikaela Norris]

...I agree that an outbreak is not necessary for a good trip...

To this point, I saw 5 tornadoes last year on 11 total chase days. Every tornado I saw was on a 5% or less day.