State of the Chase Season 2025

[Warren Faidley]

I'm hoping for a lot of clouds and steady rain in eastern NM and Western, TX for my pre-chase pleasure. Not seeing anything overwhelming in the reasonable forecast period. Maybe something afterwards.

 

[Todd Lemery]

Pickings are looking a bit slim until we get to the end of the month. If that holds true it’ll put extra pressure on May to perform. I already have a couple of blocks in May that are going to squeeze my windows even more. CFS is looking spotty for the first two weeks of May, which I consider a good sign because of how far off it usually is that far out.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Not buying anything yet for the last two weeks in April, at least west of I-35. Models are still all over the place with RH placement and timing of best dynamics. Cloud cover models are unfavorable for CAPE, but may be favorable for soaking rains. After the 27th. things seem to go zonal-north according to the NCEP models. As always, would guess there will be one or two good days somewhere in the US during the period.

 

[Paul Bird]

The second half of May continuing to trend in the right direction. Just what you want to see as a chaser

 

[Matthew Crowther]

My slim optimism has faded, and the late-week severe weather looks mostly meh for tornadoes. We may have some action later in the month, but that is also not overly exciting. The upper low ejecting late week looks more positively tilted, allowing the cold air to surge south.

 

[Warren Faidley]

My slim optimism has faded, and the late-week severe weather looks mostly meh for tornadoes. We may have some action later in the month, but that is also not overly exciting. The upper low ejecting late week looks more positively tilted, allowing the cold air to surge south.

Agree 100%. As usual, too many social media know-it-alls posting "outbreak" forecasts too far in advance. The inertia just keeps going until reality sets-in. Looks like we will be setting-up for the typical early May pattern right on schedule. Once the RH moves west, the season will be dictated by capping, DL placement and subtle kinks in the UL flow. Good year or bad year? Yet to be seen.

 

[Jeff House]

Granted the long-range is acquiring a sloppy look, but even last week I never saw much worthy of the outbreak sequence hype. What I saw, and what's still shown, is a seasonable uptick in activity late April into early May thanks to proper flow returning.

I don't see a travel set-up. I do see local Plains chase days. Some will be slop. Some will be capped. A few should work out. Indeed model spread is bad even for days 5-7 and that makes it frustrating. If one lives in the Plains and has a flexible schedule, it's quite doable.

One positive trend is that the omega that showed up on a couple runs earlier this week is gone. That would have been a massive debacle. Flow still looks sloppy, upper flow and LLJ, but a few days could / should work out.

I would say travelers stay on hold. Plains chasers, be ready on short notice.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Since I do not live in the Plains, I am inclined to avoid what looks to be a classic "needle in a haystack" situation with lots of storms, with just one or two supercells somewhere in the mess. I agree that if I lived out there, it would be worth a short jaunt, but I need to save my $$ and time for May and June.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I feel the same Matt. I can’t get out there this week or next anyway. But even when I can - despite always telling myself I can go out there and work remotely and chase more often - when the opportunity presents itself, the bar is quite high to motivate me to spend the time and money going back and forth. If I could stay out there for weeks on end it might be an easier decision, but with family events including kids graduating from both high school and college, I would have to go back and forth and that’s difficult inertia to get past… I suspect that, regardless of my theoretical, abstract chasing aspirations, I will end up waiting until I have a solid 16 days straight that I can be out there beginning around 5/24. Later than I would like, and again I can get out there for shorter trips before then, but it will be a high bar. The one thing I do want to try to do this year is have a more optimistic bias, i.e. get out there if an event has a high ceiling, and not do what I usually do, which is look for reasons it’s probably not worth the trouble.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Looks like there could be some action on the southern Plains the weekend after Easter - particularly Sunday April 27, with maybe a “day before the day” on Saturday. Not worth doing a deep analysis at this point, but both GFS and Euro show 60s dews up through KS and a solid dryline on the longitude of the eastern TX panhandle / OK border. Details of 500mb flow are different but southwesterly on both models. Just some big-picture pattern recognition at the moment, not a lot of time spent on the details or looking for potential negatives.

As usual, my theoretical flexibility to fly out and chase has been self-sabotaged once again, as I committed to attending a neighbor’s surprise birthday party that day.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

A general weakish southwest flow pattern is evident in the ensembles and weeklies, starting about a week from now. The focus appears to be the southern and possibly central High Plains, where adequate CAPE should be present. I'm contemplating a trip out mid-next week, depending on the trends.

 

[Jeff House]

Yeah Matt that almost looks like something from later in the season - which is actually what we like!

James the Laws of Physics always favor great events when we have hard blackout dates. I think our family has something the 27th too. Cynicism aside, I like the positive attitude for the Plains. We're not forecasting snow in the South. We're forecasting severe weather in Tornado Alley.

Easter Sunday could be interesting in the Midwest and perhaps the Mid-South. I'm not buying anything in the Deep South as the LLJ and other support ejects away.

Then next week could be a little sloppy, but gems may work out. The following week starting with the 27th seems more balanced. Some cap risks, but that's better than rainouts. Heights are forecast above normal which is not classic, but doable on days that are not capped. Plus it's still southwest flow. Just get short-waves timed right, no nukecap no rainout. Probably be a couple that week which straddles April and May.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Yeah Matt that almost looks like something from later in the season - which is actually what we like!

James the Laws of Physics always favor great events when we have hard blackout dates. I think our family has something the 27th too. Cynicism aside, I like the positive attitude for the Plains. We're not forecasting snow in the South. We're forecasting severe weather in Tornado Alley.

Easter Sunday could be interesting in the Midwest and perhaps the Mid-South. I'm not buying anything in the Deep South as the LLJ and other support ejects away.

Then next week could be a little sloppy, but gems may work out. The following week starting with the 27th seems more balanced. Some cap risks, but that's better than rainouts. Heights are forecast above normal which is not classic, but doable on days that are not capped. Plus it's still southwest flow. Just get short-waves timed right, no nukecap no rainout. Probably be a couple that week which straddles April and May.

If the storms are in areas with higher elevation, like eastern NM and CO, cap concerns are lower, and upslope may also provide a focus.

 

[Mikaela Norris]

If the storms are in areas with higher elevation, like eastern NM and CO, cap concerns are lower, and upslope may also provide a focus.

Gosh I hope so! I'm sitting out here in CO, currently unable to travel much due to work, and I'm itching to finally get my 2025 chase season underway. I know CO is normally a later-in-the-season type of place, but I got spoiled by my years living in OK and I'm getting impatient.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Nice trio of discrete cells ongoing in eastern Nebraska at the moment, the northern of which is tornado-warned. While not a high-end, must-travel day, ought to be a good day for the locals and anyone else who can get there.