Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'm hoping for a lot of clouds and steady rain in eastern NM and Western, TX for my pre-chase pleasure. Not seeing anything overwhelming in the reasonable forecast period. Maybe something afterwards.
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After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.
I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.
For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.
From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.
Sincerely, Jeff D.
State of the Chase Season 2025
- Thread starter Dan Robinson
- Start date
Pickings are looking a bit slim until we get to the end of the month. If that holds true it’ll put extra pressure on May to perform. I already have a couple of blocks in May that are going to squeeze my windows even more. CFS is looking spotty for the first two weeks of May, which I consider a good sign because of how far off it usually is that far out.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Not buying anything yet for the last two weeks in April, at least west of I-35. Models are still all over the place with RH placement and timing of best dynamics. Cloud cover models are unfavorable for CAPE, but may be favorable for soaking rains. After the 27th. things seem to go zonal-north according to the NCEP models. As always, would guess there will be one or two good days somewhere in the US during the period.
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Matthew Crowther
EF4
My slim optimism has faded, and the late-week severe weather looks mostly meh for tornadoes. We may have some action later in the month, but that is also not overly exciting. The upper low ejecting late week looks more positively tilted, allowing the cold air to surge south.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Agree 100%. As usual, too many social media know-it-alls posting "outbreak" forecasts too far in advance. The inertia just keeps going until reality sets-in. Looks like we will be setting-up for the typical early May pattern right on schedule. Once the RH moves west, the season will be dictated by capping, DL placement and subtle kinks in the UL flow. Good year or bad year? Yet to be seen.
Jeff House
Supporter
Granted the long-range is acquiring a sloppy look, but even last week I never saw much worthy of the outbreak sequence hype. What I saw, and what's still shown, is a seasonable uptick in activity late April into early May thanks to proper flow returning.
I don't see a travel set-up. I do see local Plains chase days. Some will be slop. Some will be capped. A few should work out. Indeed model spread is bad even for days 5-7 and that makes it frustrating. If one lives in the Plains and has a flexible schedule, it's quite doable.
One positive trend is that the omega that showed up on a couple runs earlier this week is gone. That would have been a massive debacle. Flow still looks sloppy, upper flow and LLJ, but a few days could / should work out.
I would say travelers stay on hold. Plains chasers, be ready on short notice.
I don't see a travel set-up. I do see local Plains chase days. Some will be slop. Some will be capped. A few should work out. Indeed model spread is bad even for days 5-7 and that makes it frustrating. If one lives in the Plains and has a flexible schedule, it's quite doable.
One positive trend is that the omega that showed up on a couple runs earlier this week is gone. That would have been a massive debacle. Flow still looks sloppy, upper flow and LLJ, but a few days could / should work out.
I would say travelers stay on hold. Plains chasers, be ready on short notice.
Matthew Crowther
EF4
Since I do not live in the Plains, I am inclined to avoid what looks to be a classic "needle in a haystack" situation with lots of storms, with just one or two supercells somewhere in the mess. I agree that if I lived out there, it would be worth a short jaunt, but I need to save my $$ and time for May and June.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I feel the same Matt. I can’t get out there this week or next anyway. But even when I can - despite always telling myself I can go out there and work remotely and chase more often - when the opportunity presents itself, the bar is quite high to motivate me to spend the time and money going back and forth. If I could stay out there for weeks on end it might be an easier decision, but with family events including kids graduating from both high school and college, I would have to go back and forth and that’s difficult inertia to get past… I suspect that, regardless of my theoretical, abstract chasing aspirations, I will end up waiting until I have a solid 16 days straight that I can be out there beginning around 5/24. Later than I would like, and again I can get out there for shorter trips before then, but it will be a high bar. The one thing I do want to try to do this year is have a more optimistic bias, i.e. get out there if an event has a high ceiling, and not do what I usually do, which is look for reasons it’s probably not worth the trouble.
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