• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

State of the Chase Season 2025

Chase early and often - even Southern slop - is my attitude. Just in case those long-range forecasts have merit.

Wednesday looks uninspiring in the South but we have NCAA play-in games. Midwest could do something isolated.
Sunday is pretty much a Deep South we'll see. I'm not worried early season, just ready to chase anything.
 
Maybe early-mid April?
Yes frankly, that was the underlying theme of my post on Monday afternoon.
The deeper, richer moisture & associated strong baroclinicity takes the very pause you mention. Actually...
I don't mind if it holds off a bit; I like warmer, surface temps & slower, storm motions w/ later, further north & west events. 🌪️
 
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Alright the SPC has reloaded for the coming weekend March 29-30! ECMWF has a funky Texas low trying to gum up the works. In May I'd be worried about that. End of March I figure the mid-latitude jet stream will exert its influence and shear out the pesky low.

That situation may be a greater concern for Plains chasers, but you always have to like the Day Before the Day. I will defer Saturday to Plains members, since I'm still South focused this early in the season.

Sunday the Mid-South looks best to me, but not 30% yet. I infer the large 15% is more about placement uncertainty than intensity. Midwest and Tennessee Valley are conditional on a bigger warm sector. MCS action could limit Sunday to the Mid-South or even parts of the Deep South.

Just right morning showers after Saturday night could lay down favorable boundaries. Also multiple days of return flow is bullish. Wednesday is the last scrub trough through the Great Lakes. The South has Thursday night through Sunday morning to charge up!
 
Well the SPC dropped Saturday and broadened Sunday. Could get started MO/AR before rumbling into IL/KY and the rest of the Mid-South. SPC adds Monday on the East Coast. Joy!

Looking ahead the first 8-10 days of April could be fairly active too. While the CFS has a less classic 500 mb pattern, most here have probably seen the CFS severe parameters. Not everyone has access to the ECMWF ensembles so here they are. Please do not share for commercial use.

Sunday could be just the start of the severe weather buffet line for chasers. We'll see how things evolve.

1742911272840.png 1742911249500.png
 
...upcoming pattern. Cold fronts...
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Image 2.jpg
After Sunday's system, a (CFS) trend exists over the next couple of weeks for plenty of cold working deeply south & east.
While these temp anomalies may not be perfectly accurate, I do believe they show the lagged effects of the strat warm.
In the contest between mT and cP/mP, the overall victor appears to be the cold pushing towards the Gulf.
While not unexpected, Plains chasers remain on hold, and hopefully the latter half of April turns around.
 
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Cold fronts happen in April. So far the SSW has failed to hold a connection to the troposphere.

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Still have a nice 8-14 day forecast for the general weather pattern. Whether individual systems align right is a separate question.

1743092027075.png
 
Image 4.jpg
This is not gloom and doom, just a lot of curiosity, as I generally don't look this far out, but...
Given a 30-day wait from the peak of the March strat warm, we might see the pattern strongly affected after the first week of April.
 
Chase Sunday and Wednesday or forever hold your peace! Well at least until May, ha.

Yeah William I am blessed to live in East Tenn. Thought about just enjoy lovely spring weather. Alas the Mid-South may be calling Sunday. See Target Area. Then Wednesday we might do it all again!

Issued Friday valid for Wednesday, April 2. After that indeed the upper-level pattern gets hideous for chasing.

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