Didn't you use to maintain a database of Plains spring season quality using some kind of objective means? Any chance you can dig back into that and add some recent years to see if there is any numerical sense behind this sentiment?
State of the chase season 2020
- Thread starter Todd Lemery
- Start date
- Status
Didn't you use to maintain a database of Plains spring season quality using some kind of objective means? Any chance you can dig back into that and add some recent years to see if there is any numerical sense behind this sentiment?
Perhaps Mother Nature heard our collective sobbing and decided to throw us a bone -- today's 12Z GEFS has a much more optimistic forecast for the coming weeks...by far the most optimistic I have seen yet this month!
The next few days look to be down for sure, but starting in the middle of next week (roughly Wednesday/Thursday), it lights up the central US with day-after-day-after-day-etc potential. Granted, I'm using an optimistic product (ensemble max SCP), but even that product has been really stingy lately.
Look at this!
Obvious caveats:
Check out a few of them.
Thursday: Somewhere along or near the I-40 corridor between the E TX PH and W AR. All 20 members have SCP > 4 somewhere in this area, and 6 have SCP > 7 somewhere. ALL depict some level of enhanced severe potential.
Friday: The lower-eastern Plains from C OK through C/E KS and parts of MO. 12/20 members have SCP > 7, and a few members get above 10. All but one member has some level of enhanced severe threat.
Saturday: Somewhat more scatter, but looks like the central or eastern Plains up towards the quad-state area (IA/NE/MO/KS). 17 members have SCP > 7 somewhere, and nearly half have SCP > 10 somewhere. All members present some level of threat, and arguably 17 present a recognizable enhanced threat.
Sunday: Regional scatter is now quite large, but still 14/20 ensemble members have SCP > 7 at some point, and arguably 75% of the members present a scenario with some level of enhanced severe potential.
Man, is it gonna suck when this goes away at 18Z and stays away at 00Z. But it has my heart and soul energized for at least the next 6-12 hours. Someday I'll look back on this and tell the local neighborhood children (between visits of the chaperone drones that will be controlling our outdoor interactions
) about the days where we used to eagerly anticipate looking at fantastical longer-range models for signs of fantasy chases like folks in the 2000s had. We would get so excited to see potential at 200+ hours! Yeah, so what that it never materialized in reality...the virtual reality boost was enough to keep us going during those times.
The next few days look to be down for sure, but starting in the middle of next week (roughly Wednesday/Thursday), it lights up the central US with day-after-day-after-day-etc potential. Granted, I'm using an optimistic product (ensemble max SCP), but even that product has been really stingy lately.
Look at this!
Obvious caveats:
- this is a maximum over 20 ensemble members, so just one member can trip an alarm.
- Spatial dislocation between multiple members that have a similar magnitude will make the overall area look larger than it is likely to be.
- You want to see large ensemble member agreement for true confidence.
Check out a few of them.
Thursday: Somewhere along or near the I-40 corridor between the E TX PH and W AR. All 20 members have SCP > 4 somewhere in this area, and 6 have SCP > 7 somewhere. ALL depict some level of enhanced severe potential.
Friday: The lower-eastern Plains from C OK through C/E KS and parts of MO. 12/20 members have SCP > 7, and a few members get above 10. All but one member has some level of enhanced severe threat.
Saturday: Somewhat more scatter, but looks like the central or eastern Plains up towards the quad-state area (IA/NE/MO/KS). 17 members have SCP > 7 somewhere, and nearly half have SCP > 10 somewhere. All members present some level of threat, and arguably 17 present a recognizable enhanced threat.
Sunday: Regional scatter is now quite large, but still 14/20 ensemble members have SCP > 7 at some point, and arguably 75% of the members present a scenario with some level of enhanced severe potential.
Man, is it gonna suck when this goes away at 18Z and stays away at 00Z. But it has my heart and soul energized for at least the next 6-12 hours. Someday I'll look back on this and tell the local neighborhood children (between visits of the chaperone drones that will be controlling our outdoor interactions
) about the days where we used to eagerly anticipate looking at fantastical longer-range models for signs of fantasy chases like folks in the 2000s had. We would get so excited to see potential at 200+ hours! Yeah, so what that it never materialized in reality...the virtual reality boost was enough to keep us going during those times.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Even in 2018, one *could have* had three consecutive tornado days - WY, DDC and the CO landspouts (I may have the sequence of the second and third reversed, I can’t recall). Never lose hope!
BTW, I missed all three
I run around with my rose colored glasses glued to my head. It doesn’t take much to get me excited and now I’m getting excited starting with the second half of next week. We’re in prime time now and the next 2-3 weeks are going to make or break it for a lot of chasers.
The better winds still project to be separated from the better moisture on the Southern plains which gives me pause. That seems to be a regular occurrence over the last few years. But, with the moisture in place there will be some quality days coming up for those who dig into the details and find the hidden gems. Even 2018 was a banner year for those that hit it right.
The better winds still project to be separated from the better moisture on the Southern plains which gives me pause. That seems to be a regular occurrence over the last few years. But, with the moisture in place there will be some quality days coming up for those who dig into the details and find the hidden gems. Even 2018 was a banner year for those that hit it right.
Thursday: Somewhere along or near the I-40 corridor between the E TX PH and W AR. All 20 members have SCP > 4 somewhere in this area, and 6 have SCP > 7 somewhere. ALL depict some level of enhanced severe potential.
View attachment 20505
Man, is it gonna suck when this goes away at 18Z and stays away at 00Z. But it has my heart and soul energized for at least the next 6-12 hours. Someday I'll look back on this and tell the local neighborhood children (between visits of the chaperone drones that will be controlling our outdoor interactions
Thursday coming in on the 18Z GEFS and...
it has...
NOT backed off! Yay!
Yep. Everything in that 5-8-day stretch held up in the 00Z GEFS.
Great...now my hopes are going to start getting up.
The next ERTAF should come out tomorrow evening. Will be exciting to see what the group thinks.
Great...now my hopes are going to start getting up.
The next ERTAF should come out tomorrow evening. Will be exciting to see what the group thinks.
This was discussed a week or two ago with reference to the MJO teleconnection and the 8-1-2 pattern. It appears the
Indian Ocean convection has gone hog wild. I’m not sure how long it takes to translate across the globe, but better late than never. Two day loop
The big warm up in the Plains is arriving this week which is a huge change here in Denver. Jeff mentioned how cool it has been this month. Having lived here since 1988 I don’t recall it being this cool in May since 2001-2002. Upper 70s to upper 80s are the forecast highs here next week.
A family of cyclones is always a good thing. I’m looking forward to the one up in the Bering Sea island chain, which should be a major player if a trough can carve out and make it to our latitude before shearing out.
Indian Ocean convection has gone hog wild. I’m not sure how long it takes to translate across the globe, but better late than never. Two day loop
The big warm up in the Plains is arriving this week which is a huge change here in Denver. Jeff mentioned how cool it has been this month. Having lived here since 1988 I don’t recall it being this cool in May since 2001-2002. Upper 70s to upper 80s are the forecast highs here next week.
A family of cyclones is always a good thing. I’m looking forward to the one up in the Bering Sea island chain, which should be a major player if a trough can carve out and make it to our latitude before shearing out.
Joey Prom
EF1
The 06z run of the GEFS didn't get the memo that this was supposed to be a down year for the plains... YAY US!!!
Dean Baron
Supporter
The GEFS looks pretty but I’m holding out on being too optimistic until the deterministic GFS comes more in line with the ensembles. The deterministic actually had better parameters on Friday and Saturday and has trended lower since. The agreement in the ensembles is encouraging but I I don’t know how much I buy it at this point.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'm on the fence right now, but leaning towards departing tomorrow or Tuesday for a Wednesday+ chase period. I have taken note that local NWS office discussions and the SPC are not overly excited about next week. The one driving force is the presence of both workable RH and bulk shear though the period -- over very limited regions. Still have several model runs to make a decision.
Dean Baron
Supporter
LCLs look brutal on the forecast soundings and without stronger shear to compensate for it we may be getting excited over nothing. Nevertheless it’s May and something’s gotta give, even if for only a day or two.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
The LCL's are often outrageous in late May out west, but something always gives, like a 2k ft long tornado...lol. Higher DP's than forecast and the higher terrain of E. NM and Colorado is always an equalizer.
Dean Baron
Supporter
Hopefully the high LCLs mean more photogenic storms and tornadoes and don’t act as a tornado killer.
- Status
