State of the chase season 2020

[Lou Ruh]

Thanks Lou, I knew you would be able to provide more comprehensive information

...

I'm also not far from the 11/30 one but that wasn't even on my "radar screen" (pun intended) until you mentioned it. I knew there was a tornado watch but I was working and not too enthusiastic about it, you know how disappointing everything is around here... By the time I "tuned in" to watch the line of severe storms approach my neighborhood, it was already east of where the tornado had formed. I wasn't aware of it and didn't even think to check the storm reports later.

You're welcome .

The 11/30 Montgomeryville, PA tornado is estimated to have been on the ground for about minute. At the time, I was trying to navigate the flooding on the Schuylkill Expressway ... nowhere near Montgomeryville ... so, zero chance to get into position.

 

[Jeff House]

The 11-15 day pattern, basically Christmas week shows a weather pattern that could open the door to Dixie severe. Note it's the 11-15 day fantastyland.

Still EPS backs up the GFS extended pattern of trough west/central pivoting into the Midwest or Southeast. Deterministic runs return dewpoints. Of course the wind shear is there. Dews are always the question mark.

If you can't visit family this year, or you want to escape family, maybe we can jawbone up a storm chase.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The 11-15 day pattern, basically Christmas week shows a weather pattern that could open the door to Dixie severe. Note it's the 11-15 day fantastyland.

Still EPS backs up the GFS extended pattern of trough west/central pivoting into the Midwest or Southeast. Deterministic runs return dewpoints. Of course the wind shear is there. Dews are always the question mark.

If you can't visit family this year, or you want to escape family, maybe we can jawbone up a storm chase.

SPC says zzzzzzzzzz for the next 8 days, but that doesn't quite reach into the period you're discussing.

...DISCUSSION...
Within a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific,
it appears that another significant short wave trough will progress
inland of the Pacific coast by early Monday, before traversing the
remainder of the nation by the middle to latter portion of next
week. While it appears that this feature could support significant
surface cyclogenesis near or east of the Atlantic Seaboard late next
week, medium-range guidance continues to suggest that any surface
cyclogenesis over the interior U.S., east of the Rockies, will
remain modest to weak. A substantive inland return flow of moisture
off the Gulf of Mexico appears unlikely, contributing to the
maintenance of generally stable conditions and low convective
potential.

 

[Mikayla Norris]

The 11-15 day pattern, basically Christmas week shows a weather pattern that could open the door to Dixie severe. Note it's the 11-15 day fantastyland.

Still EPS backs up the GFS extended pattern of trough west/central pivoting into the Midwest or Southeast. Deterministic runs return dewpoints. Of course the wind shear is there. Dews are always the question mark.

If you can't visit family this year, or you want to escape family, maybe we can jawbone up a storm chase.

I noticed it as well. My big excitement with it was that if it were to play out, which is arguably a big if at this point, it could spell some decent snowfall even into my part of OK around the Altus area. Which would be fantastic.