State of the chase season 2020

[Warren Faidley]

For fun, I scrolled through the CFS 500mb height anomalies and from next week onward.... and one would think the Yellowstone Caldera had let go.

 

[Brett Roberts]

"One of the worst seasons ever" just doesn't pack the same punch it used to. It's becoming increasingly difficult for me not to suspect that either climate change, or climate variability on decadal time scales, has pushed us into a regime that makes Plains storm chasing less sensible an obsession than its short history of wide participation (i.e., the 1980s-2010) had perhaps led us to believe. We had just had 2018, and 2017, and 2014. If you consider the nine-year stretch from 2012-present, and are allowed to remove merely two 7-10 day periods (May 18-28, 2013; and May 21-25, 2016), so much of recent spring seasons have been dominated by unfavorable patterns for chaseable Plains supercells and tornadoes. Granted, 2015 and 2019 were convectively active for periods, albeit messy.

I believe two broad themes of research on potential impacts of climate change on CONUS severe are: (a) more CAPE but less shear, on average; and (b) more active cool/early seasons and less active late/warm seasons, on average. With respect to the second item, my observation is that the late season (i.e., June) has been behaving as one might expect, but we are not making up for it in the early season at all. Instead, eastern Canada troughing has been an omnipresent fixture in March and April, either leaving us in dry/cold NW flow or, in the case of the subtropical jet carving in from the SW, tipping the scales in favor of setups with cold air lurking nearby. Time and again, this has meant a short, frenzied period of chasing sometime from mid-late May during the transition between these two unfavorable regimes.

Of course, 2020 is not precisely following that playbook, as May is completely shut down for the first year in awhile. I would argue the early season this year exhibited the usual weaknesses we've seen lately, but a couple days in late April managed to overcome that and save the southern Plains from a total shut-out. Now, we wait and see whether June can recover at all. As ever, we're running way behind the curve, and the best-case scenario now is recovery to the point of a "decent" year. If western ridging takes hold for the remainder of the season similar to 2006, then we will have yet another candidate for dethroning 1988 (I thought 2018 might do it, but some fluky northern Plains action in June stopped it just short, IMO).

 

[Brett Nickeson]

I don't have any meteorological information to add, because everyone knows it's complete shit out there.

Every year becomes the worst year in recent memory, it seems. For five years running I've chased fewer and fewer times each year and have started later and later, and it's not because I'm getting more selective or lazy. Like Brett said, something has to be happening climatologically or we're in a multi-decadal low phase. The only other explanation is that I got started chasing in 2011 and it's been shit ever since then, and honestly that makes about as much sense as anything else right now.

2020 has no socializing, no sports, no travel, a tanked economy, and now no storms. It's enough to deject even the sunniest of dispositions. Hallelujah, holy shit, where's the Tylenol.

 

[Dean Baron]

Maybe all of our bitching today was the magic rain dance we need for chasing because all of a sudden next weekend looks like it has some decent potential.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Please keep the negative vibes going. This is a sure way to make things change . The 18z GFS is trying to introduce some (different) jet activity in the 240hr time frame. I'll start believing it after it sticks to the wall in another 4-5 runs and the ECMWF jumps on board.

 

[Joey Prom]

I saw that too. We will just have to wait and see. Not every year can be a big year and the down year just make the big years all that much more memorable. I still plan to chase all I can during this month.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Long way off, but here is a sounding for Saturday, May 23 in North-Central OK. It looks like 24 hours later there is a similar risk in SE, KS. Still does not appear like a season worth a long term commitment yet, but for those who live in the region you may get a few days of acceptable chasing --- with 1.2 million chasers on each rare event. The next two days of modeling are going to be interesting.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Maybe all of our bitching today was the magic rain dance we need for chasing because all of a sudden next weekend looks like it has some decent potential.

It's relative - when everything starts to consistently look like shit, even something that doesn't look great starts to look okay by comparison.

 

[JamesCaruso]

It's becoming increasingly difficult for me not to suspect that either climate change, or climate variability on decadal time scales, has pushed us into a regime that makes Plains storm chasing less sensible an obsession than its short history of wide participation (i.e., the 1980s-2010) had perhaps led us to believe.

Sorry, I know I am not adding to the long range forecast discussion with this post, but I absolutely love that line I question myself about this every year.

 

[Dean Baron]

It's relative - when everything starts to consistently look like shit, even something that doesn't look great starts to look okay by comparison.

I’m desperate. I’m not above admitting that

 

[Paul Bird]

22nd through the 25th continue to improve. Thats when I'll make my trip most likely. Definitely in need of this chasecation.

 

[Brett Roberts]

It's relative - when everything starts to consistently look like shit, even something that doesn't look great starts to look okay by comparison.

See: Wed 5/13/20, the most highly anticipated assortment of popcorn to marginally organized convective structures in #wxtwitter history... dare we try to top it so soon?

 

[Warren Faidley]

It would appear (ATM) there will be **just** enough bulk shear and **just** enough RH to make things interesting out west beginning Tuesday. We are likely not talking wedges and outbreaks, but the more typical, late May, isolated LP's, boundary-driven landspouts and Campoesque sneak attacks. The setups where you are either a: sitting on the side of the road staring at a capped atmosphere and getting bored to death or b: end up with a trophy. I'm not going to re-post soundings or surface data, but data suggests the western regions (eastern Colorado, OK Panhandle, western Texas and eastern NM will be in play beginning Tuesday. The eastern cyclone does not disrupt the surface flow from the Gulf as much as forecast a few days ago -- and the late May conveyor belt of RH is flowing up though the typical southwestern route. Capping and LCL's will be an issue, but they always are this time of year.... but the tubes can still get jiggy in late May.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I'm surprised the atmosphere is going ape S**T since my vacation got cancelled due to this Corona crap.

 

[Alex Elmore]

I'm surprised the atmosphere is going ape S**T since my vacation got cancelled due to this Corona crap.

I feel the same. Between COVID and a new job, my chasecation is not happening and I'm limited in what local events I can partake in...if there even were any. Usually that means days upon days of scenic tubes and jaw-dropping structure.

"One of the worst seasons ever" just doesn't pack the same punch it used to. It's becoming increasingly difficult for me not to suspect that either climate change, or climate variability on decadal time scales, has pushed us into a regime that makes Plains storm chasing less sensible an obsession than its short history of wide participation (i.e., the 1980s-2010) had perhaps led us to believe. We had just had 2018, and 2017, and 2014. If you consider the nine-year stretch from 2012-present, and are allowed to remove merely two 7-10 day periods (May 18-28, 2013; and May 21-25, 2016), so much of recent spring seasons have been dominated by unfavorable patterns for chaseable Plains supercells and tornadoes. Granted, 2015 and 2019 were convectively active for periods, albeit messy.

This is a very interesting point, and one that has also crossed my mind over the last couple years. How much longer can we say "worst season/year ever" like it's something new before it becomes the new norm? The discussion of this year's pattern and severe potential is very similar to 2018 IMO, which was the most recent "worst season/year ever". Climate-scale research is beyond my area of expertise, and a more thorough discussion on it is probably worthy of its own thread. Maybe we're seeing one of Dr. Gensini's more recent studies playing out in real time: Spatial trends in United States tornado frequency