State of the Chase Season: 2019

The longer range ensembles are in good agreement that after this last trough swings through, there will be rising heights across the southern U.S. with a tendency for more ridging over the Southern Plains. You have to wonder if the season really quiets down, or if you get a few more troughs to swing through before the ridge becomes firmly established. We've had a good run, even if the chases have been challenging. I think we have at least three more solid chase days coming up between today and Tuesday. Beyond that, it's a bit more unclear, but at the very least, the second half of this week should be tame in comparison to last week.
 
Quincy Vagell said:
The longer range ensembles are in good agreement that after this last trough swings through, there will be rising heights across the southern U.S. with a tendency for more ridging over the Southern Plains. You have to wonder if the season really quiets down, or if you get a few more troughs to swing through before the ridge becomes firmly established. We've had a good run, even if the chases have been challenging. I think we have at least three more solid chase days coming up between today and Tuesday. Beyond that, it's a bit more unclear, but at the very least, the second half of this week should be tame in comparison to last week.
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I generally avoid potentially depressing myself with long-range forecasting while I am on my chase vacation. I don’t even look at SPC Day 4-8. I try to just take it one day at a time, until I am coming down to the last 3-5 days of my trip, at which point I’ll check to see if it is even worth staying or if I should go home early and save the money / vacation time. However, just reading various offices’ AFDs, I am seeing mention of renewed western troughing starting next weekend. How does that reconcile with what the ensembles are showing?
 
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest have chances early next week. Might be some northwest flow, so remember to turn everything 45-90 degrees for the conceptual model. Upslope may also surprise in CO/WY. Really it's not a bad deal for chase vacations trying to get away from the crowd.

Also the Central and Southern Plains need a ridge now. Arkansas River is at record flood stage in spots. Many lives impacted.
 
I agree on the need for the pattern change. I've never seen so much water/flooded fields everywhere from Colorado to Missouri and Nebraska to Texas. Our drive home Tuesday on I-29 was detoured after they had to close that interstate AGAIN Tuesday evening. Had checked roads when I left Tuesday morning and I-29 was open so we were surprised to be detoured at 10p that night. It's now closed from St Joseph all the way up to south of Omaha. Also closed for a stretch north of Omaha.

I have my full week free to chase next week. Initially was disappointed to see the pattern change, but like you said there should still be opportunities, just maybe not the obvious outbreak ones, which can be a good thing for the crowds.

Jeff House said:
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest have chances early next week. Might be some northwest flow, so remember to turn everything 45-90 degrees for the conceptual model. Upslope may also surprise in CO/WY. Really it's not a bad deal for chase vacations trying to get away from the crowd.

Also the Central and Southern Plains need a ridge now. Arkansas River is at record flood stage in spots. Many lives impacted.
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Despite the ridge, several models still showing significant precip for the southern half of Kansas into Oklahoma over the next 10 days. With the amount of water soon to be released from upstream on the Missouri, we're looking at possible 2011 flooding for the lower Missouri as well as the Mississippi. I've never seen anything quite like this.

As far as the ridging goes, ensembles are showing a ridge but it doesn't really appear to be a killer yet. I'm guessing there could be some small waves that temporarily break it down for a chase north of I-80 at some point in a couple weeks. I'm hopeful for that, since the northern plains hasn't had a proper season since about 2010 and we could use a break from the chaser hordes.
 
Speaking of the south end of things, yes the ridge has a soft underbelly. Hopefully not much in KS/OK with the flooding.

On the plus side, maybe just maybe some PH magic way up on the Caprock? Previously I overlooked that. Modest flow is forecast with some LLJ and robust dewpoints.
 
June... the month that separates the storm chasers from the tornado chasers. The month where chaser convergence dies down, and Colorado becomes center stage. The month where the story moves from exclusively tornadoes to also including hail, floods, and fires. The month where we start throwing around terms like, "Colorado Magic" and "Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone".

Yes, at some point many will complain that a "death ridge" has set in across the country. But the real storm chasers will chase on. Undeterred. Knowing that the DCVZ can produce tornadoes well into August.

The opportunities will become less clear. The target areas more broad. The difficulty will increase, and forecasting skills will come into the spotlight. The amateurs, the radar chasers, and the wannabes will all stay home. And new opportunities will arise.

This is the month where exclusive opportunities exist. This is the month where you might be the only one to post a report in the Target Area thread. Or better yet, take a photo that wins National Geographic's Photo of the Year.

So ignore the pessimism, the complaining, and the talk of the impending death ridge. And chase on my fellow chasers. Chase on.
 
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ScottCurry said:
The month where we start throwing around terms like, "Colorado Magic" and "Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone".
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...and "Denver Cyclone" (which the last 'area forecast discussion' I looked at said has the potential to setup this Sunday)


So ignore the pessimism, the complaining, and the talk of the impending death ridge. And chase on my fellow chasers. Chase on.
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When I saw some comments about a season-ending ridge, I'll admit I did feel a bit of disappointment...since I'd hoped to maybe see a tornado for the first time. (I did see a nice little lightning storm off in the distance last weekend, a simple matter of sitting on the roof & looking east (sadly the camera I tried sucks in low light & I didn't get it setup in time for the main part of the storm, so dedn't get any good video))
...but having lived in CO so long, and (from experience) that I consider the main part of 'thunderstorm season' to be mid-may through mid-june. (this year in particular since its been cooler than normal this spring(it does not feel at all like "almost June" to me), my personal feeling tells me late-spring(ie: 'storm season' is not over yet)...I still have some bit of hope.
That said: I see this weekend and... (then next weekend I might be out of town, and the one after that there's a thing I'm going to, so no looking at the weather. then its past the mid-point of June...)
 
James K said:
That said: I see this weekend and... (then next weekend I might be out of town, and the one after that there's a thing I'm going to, so no looking at the weather. then its past the mid-point of June...)
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James, my last tornado chase last year was July 23 - a day where I was able to chase 3 tornado warned cells. There's still plenty of time. Just check out these report threads from prior years:

June 6, 2018: 2018-06-06 REPORTS: WY
June 19, 2018: 2018-06-19 REPORTS: CO
June 25, 2017: 2017-06-25 REPORTS: NM/CO/OK/TX

What's great about these is like I said... it's one or two people reporting their chases. Incredible photos and videos, and no chaser convergence. I love June!
 
If one is tired of Plains crowds, Dixie is saber rattling. ECMWF and its parallel/beta Deterministic paint an interesting picture in Dixie Thu/Fri June 6-7. Seems awful late in the season. However 30-yr climo Dixie can still be active in late May. This is just a week later.

Modest to moderate flow is forecast a 200/500 mb. 700 mb temps are not too warm. CAPE should be decent, esp given dewpoints this time of year. LLJ responds both days. I'm kidding about a travel chase, but I live close.
 
@ScottCurry:
Thanks.
That WY storm in particular ... (I know its a tornado & all), but some of those pictures = beautiful storm!
I definitely like the idea of less crowds! (though I'm not sure how much of an issue it'd be for me, I want to stay pretty far back)

-----
Oh and I didn't quite intend my post to sound like a rant (which it somewhat does.)

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Looking at the weekend forecast I see they've increased the chances of storms from what I saw yesterday
A cold front moves through tomorrow morning (but also brings in haze/smoke from Canada wildfires(I didn't know Canada had wildfires already this season!))
Then storms develop over the mountains in the afternoon, & they said can't rule out a couple being severe.

Though Sunday sounds like the better chance, they say:
Dew points in the 50's. daytime heating & a favorable wind profile combine to increase the threat of afternoon thunderstorms.
And MLCAPE between 1400-2200 j/kg at Denver in the afternoon. with a pattern where the development of severe thunderstorms is quite possible.
(heavy rain, hail, wind being the main threats. no mention of tornadoes, but if this is more in the city that's a good thing)
....I'm not going to pretend to truly understand the various readings, but that CAPE level along with 'favorable wind profile ' and a pattern that will funnel golf of Mexico moisture into eastern CO sound like good things.

I might have to watch & see what developed.
Maybe I'll atleast be able to see a good lightning show simply by looking north/east from home :) I always enjoy that!
 
Looking forward, it appears a weak ridge will develop over the Baja area in the next couple of days but most models/ensembles break it down within a week to ten days. Afterwards, it appears the central and northern plains may get some favorable southwest flow (finally). Granted it's still a ways out, but even weak southwest flow this time of year will be favorable for severe weather. Hopefully the third week of June offers up some opportunities for north-central plains chases before the inevitable death ridge sets in and we all bake under a cloud of mosquitos.

I'd be interested in what some of the climatology folks on here are seeing for that time frame.
 
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