Start of the fall "season"?

[Matt Gingery]

If this is the beginning of the Fall season for us, then I hope this front doesn't push into the gulf as progged or it will be the only event, if not one of very few events this fall. Just like Spring, I am not planning on a big Fall season. Still hoping on a nice post El Nino Spring this next season.

A strong trough carving its way into the central CONUS next week. If it makes it deep into the Gulf it may erase much of the season

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Kinda stinks being SDS-ed to heck and looking at every little glimmer of "hope" for a chase, then getting flamed for it...

Anyway, in a nut-shell, next week (Sept 30 and on) DOES look like a very decent setup. With all that went ape-sh-- this year (no hurricanes, no mid-June chasing, wasted time off in May) I think I have high hopes for next week too.

The GFS indeed is inaccurate this far out (120 hours+) ... However, the through has been now showing consistantly for 3-4 days in a row. In my own opinion, if I see the same pattern by this Sunday or Monday, then I'll make the trip out there for Wed / Thu next week (Sept 30 or so).

Lets all keep our fingers crossed and hope the GFS verifies ... But if it doesn't, that's the weather...

 

[Andrew Stoller]

There's been enough consistency run to run for me to ask for a few days off next week or possibly get fired from my new job.

THAT is how much I want to see a nice supercell right now.

 

[Shane Adams]

At this point I'm convinced the trough (s?) exist.

However, still too foggy to get a grasp on how the system will actually come together as far as coverage/mode. I've noticed a small trend towards keeping the main trough (Wed/Thu) capped through much of the warm sector, as well as the LLJ and h5 winds out-of-phase. We'll see.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Sort of doubting the gulf gets smashed after the first one, ecmwf really not wanting to do that...weakening the first as it lifts it north. 12z ecmwf continuing the forecasted fun. That is what spring was supposed to look like. Dare I say several of the last springs lol. Almost forgot what it looks like to get a nice trough to deepen in the west as it moves east, then weaken north or northeast as another fills in to the west. Forever and ever seems all you'd get was either just a big cut off out west(if you were that lucky) or a trough to deepen in nw flow, deepening as it moves past the plains then slams the gulf. 12z ecmwf run right now just feels so foreign(which is nice). Huge potential finally.

Disclaimer: Jinx.

 

[mikegeukes]

I have a site for the ECMWF model, has data from 8 sites.
http://models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/

Some trivia for October, I researched from today.

October Tornado Days Climatology 1970-2008 (39 Years of Data)
Number of Tornado Days:
40 Tornado Days: October: Oklahoma
26 Tornado Days: October: Kansas
18 Tornado Days: October: Nebraska
13 Tornado Days: October: Iowa
11 Tornado Days: October: Illinois
10 Tornado Days: October: Texas Panhandle (AMA & LUB CWA)
06 Tornado Days: October: South Dakota
02 Tornado Days: October: North Dakota

Average Number of Tornado Days for October:
1.03 Days: October: Oklahoma
0.66 Days: October: Kansas
0.46 Days: October: Nebraska
0.33 Days: October: Iowa
0.28 Days: October: Illinois
0.26 Days: October: Texas Panhandle (AMA & LUB CWA)
0.15 Days: October: South Dakota
0.05 Days: October: North Dakota

Number of Years with a Tornado(s) being reported in October 1970-2008
25 years out of 39 years: 64.1%: Oklahoma
14 years out of 39 years: 35.9%: Kansas
12 years out of 39 years: 30.8%: Nebraska
11 years out of 39 years: 28.2%: Iowa
10 years out of 39 years: 25.6%: Illinois

Climatology is Climatology, anything can happen.
Mike

 

[Adam Lucio]

Then explain why you you made a post about a trend in the GFS in late August for around Sept 5 -10, and it did not verify, yet you are defending it? What we are currently talking about is the Sept 30 - Oct 4 (ish) time period. You were three weeks off. I'm not trying to be rude. I'm just saying your trend, observation, or whatever was wrong and it's because it was based mainly on the GFS Operational model. And yes, you will probably continue to receive critisism for doing that in the future from various forecasters. Not because you were wrong, but because your prediction revolved around the GFS Operational model in the longer term. That's all I was trying to say and I won't bring it up again.

I'm honestly a little surprised the SPC does not currently have a risk over TX/OK/KS for day 6 (Wed). That should be the first decent chase setup next week.

I was not referring to the earlier post I made in this thread. Read my response again. I posted a blog ON September 14th referencing the Sept 30th - Oct 4 timeframe, also on the image you will cleary see a tab for the euro model as well, I dont just look at the goofus: http://aerostorm9.blogspot.com/2009/09/un-motivated.html

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

...Some trivia for October, I researched from today.

1.03 Days: October: Oklahoma
0.66 Days: October: Kansas
0.46 Days: October: Nebraska

I see that it's not 0.00 ... Even it it's 0.01, that 1 "smidgent" is all it takes...

Guys let's not get on someone's back just because they saw (or thought they saw) a trend 3 weeks ago...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Mon.......12z ecmwf today...........damn. Maybe anyway.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

GFS of this morning shows a powerhouse system swinging out as well. Monday for the plains, and then Tuesday in the mid-miss Valley.

Of course, just like this current system I'm sure it will look horrendous by oh, Sunday morning.

 

[Adam Lucio]

That system is less appealing on the 18z run but its still something to be watched. Never had much faith in the 18z its just the run I see the most. A trend to be monitored though, even 09 has to give us at least ONE decent shot at a fall chase.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Andrew and Mike,

I was just looking over the 12z ECMWF and that is an impressive looking system....as of right now. Couldn't agree more. I've been waiting to see if the GFS and ECMWF would eject another nice low behind the one moving through the plains today/thursday.

Very impressive Jet streak (> 130 knots) for some nice UA support. And a nice deepening low across the plains. This will bear watching, but I have slightly higher confidence in this system than the one moving through right now. Not a wishcast, just a hunch.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

I didn't look at the 12z runs but whatever was there is no longer there. Let's hope the 00z is just bad run.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I looked at GFS 06Z and it's starting to show a nice system for Sunday and Monday. I'm really liking Monday enviroment with a sharp dry line, quite high dews and nice mid and low level shear in south west Kansas. It's still a little early but I think this is an encouraging signal. Let's wait 48 hours and we'll see.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

12z ecmwf messing with the timing, now bringing it out mostly Monday night. Sounds familar. Guessing Monday will work out this time anyway though.

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_MESO-ETA_SFC_SLPTMPDPTWINDSBLI_84HR.gif

Gotta love some moisture prog's come Monday morning(1 a.m. in this case off the 18z NAM).