Jim Bishop
EF4
We should be so lucky to have October 9, 2001 happen next week! What a historic day.
Start of the fall "season"?
- Thread starter Connor McCrorey
- Start date
We should be so lucky to have October 9, 2001 happen next week! What a historic day.
Brandon Goforth
Exactly! The GFS more than a couple days out is ALL OVER THE PLACE from run to run and has been for a long time...which is why I always laugh when threads are started up, or posts are made based on, like you said, 1 run of the GFS that is 300 hours out. Take a look at this thread, it was started 1 month ago based on a couple of decent GFS runs, and well, how'd that work out? That about sums it up right there.
Connor McCrorey
EF3
Notice when I started the thread I emphasized that it was too far out to trust anything other than that a trough would develop. One did in fact, it just completely missed the plains!Exactly! The GFS more than a couple days out is ALL OVER THE PLACE from run to run and has been for a long time...which is why I always laugh when threads are started up, or posts are made based on, like you said, 1 run of the GFS that is 300 hours out. Take a look at this thread, it was started 1 month ago based on a couple of decent GFS runs, and well, how'd that work out? That about sums it up right there.
Brandon Goforth
Notice when I started the thread I emphasized that it was too far out to trust anything other than that a trough would develop. One did in fact, it just completely missed the plains!
Haha! I was just using it as an example to not put any trust in the GFS.
Terry Tyler
EF5
I think were still a few weeks out. Like everyones said before, the models are flip flopping every new run. It looks like theres going to be 2 or 3 good troughs in the next 2 weeks or so. Im sure there will be a few localized areas where severe storms may form, but certainly nothing noteworthy per the latest model runs. Id say give it about 2 or 3 weeks. The GFS and ECMWF are hinting at several large troughs coming in off the pacific, but who knows if they'll hold up. Right now, i dont think the season has started; like i said if i had to guess. Id look around 2-3 weeks from now.
Chris Hayes
EF5
I wont be chasing, but along with October 9, 2001, another day like the October outbreak of 1998 would be nice as well. Both excellent chase days
Jim Bishop
EF4
I like what I'm seeing in the European models (both Operational and Ensemble) for mid next week into next weekend (Sept 30 - Oct 3 weekend). There is good agreement that two deep troughs will crash into the northwest coast and then dig southeast into the Rockies and ejecting into the Plains, spaced apart by two days. This will bring opportunities for decent storm chasing setups in the Plains.
The first trough will bring a good surface return flow of moisture Tue - Thur from Texas into Kansas. And depending on how good the moisture return is and how quickly the first trough ejects into the Plains, we could be looking at legit chase setup (potentially good) in the southern to central Plains next Wed (Sep 30). Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 70s across all of the Gulf, so I don't expect any huge moisture issues. For Thursday models are in pretty good agreement that a strong cool front will drive southward into the central Plains, so that may end up being a squall line setup. I never get excited about setups involving a strong cool front, but we'll see how things pan out.
Next Friday (Oct 2) the front progresses east and south, but I'm highly skeptical on how far south it reaches. The European Ensemble is much less aggressive with the front than the GFS/European Operational models, both which drive the front to the Gulf Coast. In any case the next deep trough is indicated by the European models to dive into the northwest next Saturday (Oct 3). The European Ensemble has it ejecting into the Plains on Sunday (Oct 4). That would be another potentially legit chase setup in the southern to central Plains should moisture return quickly enough. I belive it will as I'm in favor of the European Ensemble.
But forget the details for a second. The point here is there are going to be a few storm chasing setups in the southern to central plains beginning mid next week through next weekend (Sept 30 - Oct 4) that produce some discrete storms and supercells, and potentially tornadoes. And from the overall pattern I'm seeing there should be a few more setups the week following Oct 4, as we head into mid October.
The first trough will bring a good surface return flow of moisture Tue - Thur from Texas into Kansas. And depending on how good the moisture return is and how quickly the first trough ejects into the Plains, we could be looking at legit chase setup (potentially good) in the southern to central Plains next Wed (Sep 30). Dewpoints are currently in the low to mid 70s across all of the Gulf, so I don't expect any huge moisture issues. For Thursday models are in pretty good agreement that a strong cool front will drive southward into the central Plains, so that may end up being a squall line setup. I never get excited about setups involving a strong cool front, but we'll see how things pan out.
Next Friday (Oct 2) the front progresses east and south, but I'm highly skeptical on how far south it reaches. The European Ensemble is much less aggressive with the front than the GFS/European Operational models, both which drive the front to the Gulf Coast. In any case the next deep trough is indicated by the European models to dive into the northwest next Saturday (Oct 3). The European Ensemble has it ejecting into the Plains on Sunday (Oct 4). That would be another potentially legit chase setup in the southern to central Plains should moisture return quickly enough. I belive it will as I'm in favor of the European Ensemble.
But forget the details for a second. The point here is there are going to be a few storm chasing setups in the southern to central plains beginning mid next week through next weekend (Sept 30 - Oct 4) that produce some discrete storms and supercells, and potentially tornadoes. And from the overall pattern I'm seeing there should be a few more setups the week following Oct 4, as we head into mid October.
Connor McCrorey
EF3
Exactly. The pattern looks like it is going to become very favorable for a few good chase setups, possibly as soon as next week. When, where, and how chaseable they are is still up for grabs, but this is very encouraging, and I'm going to be watching closely.
Danny Neal
EF5
Psssst! 252 hour GFS. I am calling off work now Of course I am not that naive but lets see what happens. As TSC says above it is certainly taking an encouraging trend.
Of course I am not that naive but lets see what happens. As TSC says above it is certainly taking an encouraging trend.
Scott Weberpal
EF5
Psssst! 252 hour GFS. I am calling off work now
Look at the 180 Hour!
Danny Neal
EF5
Ahhh well played sir. I was just looking around the weekend I was moving to my new place (OCT 3) and figured I would see a set up.... lo and behold what do we have! I need to start my Spring obsession with analyzing weather models again it seems.......
Adam Lucio
EF5
Dont you think I know all of this already? Every person knows the GFS cant be trusted entirely that far out..Im sick of someone telling me that every single time. I wouldn't have even mentioned it unless I saw it in more than one run. God forbid someone chimes in with a intelligent observations about things they see or trends they notice...too much to ask I guess until SPC mentions it in the day 4-8 these days.
It showed up in more than one run, maybe not the majority but it still happened...unfortunately I only saved one image which I posted on my blog on sept 14th and go figure the dates are chopped off but it looks like the 18z run...id love to waste my time and sift through all the runs looking for the rest but id rather not argue over a moot point.
what really matters is there has been trends towards an active pattern and thats a good thing
although looking at the 18z today it looks like sept 30th is the only decent chase day...and go figure thats the one day I cannot chase.
Eric Bucsela
EF2
Hey Adam, I wouldn't worry about the exact day at this point. For one thing, I think GFS can be a little too progressive with big systems like this. For another, 12z ECMWF shows the best day to be Oct 1. But I expect even that will change...
Jason Bolt
I'm surprised not to see a FCST thread for today given all the SDS going around. I've been watching today as a sleeper day for about a week now, although it is low prob the setup has held together for the best shot at a central plains tube in quite a while, depending on clearing and heating of course.
Jim Bishop
EF4
Then explain why you you made a post about a trend in the GFS in late August for around Sept 5 -10, and it did not verify, yet you are defending it? What we are currently talking about is the Sept 30 - Oct 4 (ish) time period. You were three weeks off. I'm not trying to be rude. I'm just saying your trend, observation, or whatever was wrong and it's because it was based mainly on the GFS Operational model. And yes, you will probably continue to receive critisism for doing that in the future from various forecasters. Not because you were wrong, but because your prediction revolved around the GFS Operational model in the longer term. That's all I was trying to say and I won't bring it up again.
I'm honestly a little surprised the SPC does not currently have a risk over TX/OK/KS for day 6 (Wed). That should be the first decent chase setup next week.
