SPC's new Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

[Kurt Silvey]

Has anybody had a chance to play around with the SPC’s new SREF (Short-Range Ensemble Forecast)? They start with relatively current data and allow you to choose short-range forecast in 3 hr increments. Since MY forecasting abilities are non-existent, I currently look at both the Unisys and SPC data until I get a warm fuzzy about a particular area. This seems like one more tool that could be very useful.

 

[Robert Dewey]

I always check the short-term ensembles. They show where the highest uncertainy exists (very good for winter forecasts), as well as the highest confidence.

I am also in the process of creating a script in GEMPAK to combine the ETA/GFS (and other models) parameters and create a scalar/vector average. I may also set it up to give one model more weight than the other and see how that works out...

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I really like this new tool as well. Combined with the Mesoanalysis graphics, you have two really good nowcast tools at your disposal. The only thing that bothers me is the SPC logo in the header stays put when you scroll down. Just a cosmetic thing though :wink: