New model forecast site

[rdale]

Good stuff! I'm not quite sure I understand the TLE - for example F03 MSLP says f3 to f117. Does that mean you are using the last 38 runs equally to determine the output?

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm not quite sure I understand the TLE - for example F03 MSLP says f3 to f117. Does that mean you are using the last 38 runs equally to determine the output?

I'm using 20 GFS control runs all valid at the same time in that case. For much later forecast hours the number of members used to construct the field decreases to as low as 4. That's because I'm not using GFS output past hour 192. TLE stands for time-lagged ensemble. You can construct a model ensemble using different model simulations that initialized at different times but are valid at the same actual time. The lead time therefore varies among the individual members. Obviously there are issues regarding statistical reliability since, in this case, each member uses the exact same dynamical core and model physics and only differs in the initial conditions, but you can still use it to get an idea on how consistent a model is with itself.

 

[Jeff Duda]

All GFS TLE fields are now being updated regularly except for 0-1 km SRH. It probably will be removed in the future since it is a very demanding computation and slows down the plotting script too much. I will probably add spaghetti plots of heights and MSLP at some point, and perhaps some isentropic maps, but that's probably all I will add.

Again, suggestions are welcome. We'll see how useful this all is once storm season starts to ramp up.

 

[Josh Durkee]

Nice site! Have you considered having mouse-over times above the graphic and/or, just visually stack the images on a page. I can't speak for others, but I really like this type of setup: http://ggweather.com/loops/gfs_12z_500_all.htm

Thanks for putting this together.

 

[Mothra]

i have a suggestion. its really not a big deal. i think it would be neat if every time i clicked on a spread it opened in a separate widow automatically. that way i dont gotta go back and forth.

 

[Jeff Duda]

i have a suggestion. its really not a big deal. i think it would be neat if every time i clicked on a spread it opened in a separate widow automatically. that way i dont gotta go back and forth.

Done. Thanks for the suggestion.

 

[Alex Edwards]

It's especially nice if you have an extension like Hover Zoom for Chrome. Thanks!