DMSP Satellite Imagery Ending

[Boris Konon]

It was announced Wed that imagery from the three DMSP polar-orbiting satellites will no longer be distributed effective 6/30/25. And atypically short notice as this imagery is very important for TC fixes and intensity estimates worldwide.

The key is microwave imagery (SSMIS), which allows us to see through clouds to assess TCs better. Thick cirrus often obscures TC structure and the center. Microwave imagery shows us where the true deep convection is, sprial banding, and often will show an eye present when conventional imagery does not.

There are other microwave satellites up there, but the loss of these three DMSPs cuts it back by about 40%.

DMSP is run by the DoD. They cite cybersecurity risks, a platform that can no longer be updated, and the DMSP program is scheduled to be ended no later than Sep 2026. I agree wholeheartedly w/ the cybersecurity risks, as threats are rife and hacker methods are evolving at an alarming rate. However, we couldn't wait until at least the end of this hurricane season?

This is not crippling to TC analysis or forecasting, but significant. It will have an immediate impact. Accurate TC center fixes and intensity are key for model forecasts.

More in-depth can be found here:

Critical Hurricane Forecast Tool Abruptly Terminated

U.S. Department of Defense announced Tuesday it would no longer process and deliver data essential to most hurricane forecasts

michaelrlowry.substack.com

 

[Dave C]

Since this program was canceled by congress 10 years ago, it seems very poor planning by any users to continue relying on defense satellites that are perhaps up to 10 years past their design life and only two of 19 still work. Also poor planning perhaps that the direct replacements have been slow in coming with WFS-M, and civilian sats have not directly replaced them at all. It has been widely known that civilian and defense sat architecture was splitting after JPSS, which replaced DMSP ground stations and took on some of the tasks in orbit. There are 3 microwave imagers on launched JPSS sats (so far). The last DMSP unit that still functions from this series was launched in 2009 with most likely max design life of 5 years.

I get your point about the end date being in front of a hurricane season and unexpected to people who thought the data would be around. It would be nice if better long term planning was applied by all involved.

 

[Jason N]

I was on a SBEM telecon the other day about this very thing. I like how it's politicized to make it look as though one person is responsible for the loss of imagery when exactly as you said, this was a planned event. We (the Air Force) went to Congress to highlight the impending Gap/loss of DMSP back in 2021 through the Joint Staff, and we identified these issues. One of the individuals in the call, was very "concerned", but I was like, where was your concern back in 2021. The fact is, it's almost never important enough until it breaks or it's of a political/budgetary "interest" to do so. So, I kind of chuckled at the perception that a single person made the whole thing crash, we've lost the ability to forecast! and the Navy is telling everyone, sorry you get nothing! haha

 

[Jason N]

of note, I think the inclusion of Tomorrow.io data will significantly improve upon some of the data gaps in Polar orbiting imagery with its capabilities. We just submitted funding support letters to the Defense Innovation Unit which bring money from congress to expand funding for additional satellites and data acquisition.

 

[Jason N]

the direct replacements have been slow in coming with WFS-M, and civilian sats have not directly replaced them at all. It has been widely known that civilian and defense sat architecture was splitting after JPSS, which replaced DMSP ground stations and took on some of the tasks in orbit.

Agreed Dave on the slowness, but I am unsure if that slowness is due to launch contracts? or their ability to produce them on time and budget.

 

[Dave C]

Agreed Dave on the slowness, but I am unsure if that slowness is due to launch contracts? or their ability to produce them on time and budget.

My answer is yes.

It seems like budgets and schedules are very abbreviated compared to the past for most primes and their subcontractors, but the time between development and launch is not always improving to match. I am aware of a couple success stories where the development or launch times were very fast, but not for these large programs that make stuff like DMSP or JPSS.

 

[Jason N]

Right, It seems the DMSP programs are very episodic in nature to the relationship of long-term DoD budgetary concerns, which have been fed with 1 year CR's, makes it difficult to nearly impossible to POM for money despite year after year warnings about a system that have satellites that were launched in the early 2000's .. we inform, they decide, and they had decided that kicking the can down the road was just fine, until they get to use it to some advantage to poke at politician (it could have been anyone really). That said, the satellite clock board does show gaps with this loss of data, so it's true there are and will be some gaps in the near term, which will have some measurable impact on forecast accuracy, unless groups like Atmo with their AI models and Tomorrow.io can fill in the void.