SPC Forecasters

[Richard Dickson]

I've been reading the Convection Outlooks at the SPC for several years now and have become familiar with the style of several of the forecasters. I enjoy reading the different writing styles as the shifts change and updates become available.

I don't want to hurt anyones feelings, but I'm curious as to who you think are the better forecasters over the years based upon the reliability of their projections.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Not basing this because he's a member here, but Rich Thompson has my vote. He always gives a very thorough analysis, and he has lots of experience to go along with his skills.

 

[Bryan Stokes]

My vote is for Rich Thompson as well. Thorough, very experienced, and passionate about what he does. (not that others aren't, but Rich's enthusiasm shines through -- it was definitely apparent at this year's NSSC)

Bryan

 

[Darrin Rasberry]

Thirding Thompson. Goss tends to be a bit short, and Darrow seems to be a bit stream-of-consciousness in his style. I've caught all of them occasionally just copy/pasting previous forecasts, especially with D4-8, when there ought to be reason to change up a bit. The best writings are the co-written forecasts; I think that should be done more often. But this is coming from an amateur, so take it with a grain of salt.

 

[Steve Miller TX]

Easy...Rich Thompson and Roger Edwards.

 

[Angie Norris]

Tie between Rich Thompson and Roger Edwards.

 

[Anthony Silver]

Roger Edwards and Guyer have my vote for general outlooks. During outbreaks, Corfidi and Hales do exceptionally well.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I am sure the fact that they are part of the Stormtrack and chase community has absolutely no impact on peoples votes......

 

[Steve Miller]

I'll cast my vote for Corey Mead. As a forecaster, he does well with explanation and seems to not get over-excited about an event.

 

[Jeff Passner]

I like them all the same.....

Seriously, they are ALL good these days. For you younger chasers, wayyyy back in the '80s and even into the early '90s there were some SPC forecasters who were terrible. I won't name names, but none of them are there today, thankfully. They lacked even the basics of mesoscale forecasting. Starting around 1992-1993 there was a major upgrade in forecasting skill at SPC. Today, they rarely miss a forecast or box.

Still, one thing I do every day, is make my OWN forecast before looking at SPC. I look at all the data before checking what SPC has written. Sorry, it's not that I don't trust them; it's just that I want to see if they have the same logic as I do after I make my decision. If not, I'll go back and look at what they are saying and see if I'm missing anything obvious. Not that I'd miss anything obvious....

 

[Keith Mullen]

I'm with Jeff...

I agree on doing your own analysis prior to looking at any SPC or NWS info on forecasts. I find that if for some reason I accidentally or otherwise see their info first... ...my brain and eyes can't see the bigger picture and keep getting drawn to the area forecast by others.

...and it helps to try to figure your own process out first - then either have it validated and either confirmed or debunked by those who know.

Then again, I wouldn't dare say I can forecast. I always get real close on the location and pretty decent on timing, but seem to suck at overall mesoscale intensity.

...and coming back round to the topic at hand, don't have any personal favorites yet. Everyone seems to do a really good job.

Kudos for their hard work and dedication.

Keith

 

[Joel Wright]

I think they're all pretty damn good. There's been many times when I disagreed with their forecast thinking they were crazy only to be humbled at the end of the day with their forecasts indeed being on track.

 

[Shane Adams]

I don't pick favorites, but the fact they're all getting paid to forecast severe weather speaks volumes. However, I am a firm believer that chasing gives a forecaster an extra edge or "feel" to each system/forecast. All I can say is I'm quite thankful for those guys, who take a lot of **** when it doesn't go as forecast but receive very little praise when they nail it.

This thread reminds me of an idea I had about a week ago: I publicly challenge all of you who regularly, publicly criticize the SPC to match them with public forecasts of your own. Issue your own forecast discussions on a public forum half an hour before the SPC does, but at the same time intervals. Do it for a month straight, whether you're chasing or not. Show your work. Let's see how some of you match up against them, and more to the point, how well you handle it when people trash your hard work.

 

[Dean Baron]

I don't pick favorites, but the fact they're all getting paid to forecast severe weather speaks volumes. However, I am a firm believer that chasing gives a forecaster an extra edge or "feel" to each system/forecast. All I can say is I'm quite thankful for those guys, who take a lot of **** when it doesn't go as forecast but receive very little praise when they nail it.

This thread reminds me of an idea I had about a week ago: I publicly challenge all of you who regularly, publicly criticize the SPC to match them with public forecasts of your own. Issue your own forecast discussions on a public forum half an hour before the SPC does, but at the same time intervals. Do it for a month straight, whether you're chasing or not. Show your work. Let's see how some of you match up against them, and more to the point, how well you handle it when people trash your hard work.

I agree 100%. The fact that they are paid and trained for it changes it in my mind a little, but I know I could never come close to what these guys do.

Like Shane, I dont really have a favorite, and I actually rarely check who issues each outlook. Call me crazy but the first thing I do is read the text, not the name at the bottom.

 

[Jim Tang]

I hate to rate as they are all probably better forecasters than I will ever be, but there are definitely some I like more than others. Won't name names out of respect (since many do browse this board), but I sometimes can tell if a watch or an outlook is issued by a certain forecaster without reading the bottom line.