Season over?

[jshields]

i just think everyone is just a little paranoid from last years set up in may, where the long term showed a ridge setting up and staying put and it verified. of course june was pretty good so just bc may looks like it might be "below average", we'll call it, for the next couple of weeks, there is always june

 

[Robert Dewey]

I don't watch the news "weather" for two reasons. The first reason is because I can get the weather faster than the general public and the other reason is because I live in a fraternity house where the TV is always on ESPN or MTV or something.

Then clearly your system of getting weather information "faster than the general public" is flawed if weren't even aware of the wind damage. I suspect most storm chasers would be well aware of any severe weather around them... tornadic or otherwise.

[...] when I said "nothing" I meant dropping a tornado.

If every storm that doesn't end up "dropping a tornado" is "nothing" in your opinion, you're in for a lot of disappointment.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Next Wednesday and Sunday on the 12z GFS SCREAM season over! Sigh.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

If the 12Z GFS is right, I'm gonna be chasing a lot of slow moving supercells across excellent terrain over the next couple of weeks. Good thing everyone thinks the season's over so I'll be the only one out there!

 

[Chris Hayes]

Connor the GFS is starting to show signs of hope not only for more classical type of setups from Wednesday through Sunday but perhaps some NW flow type of setups afterwards. The latest run of the CMC model (not sure how good of a model it is) was showing the same thing for next week with a cut off low coming into the plains on Wednesday through the week.

 

[Zack Hargrove]

I think this is a classic example of trying to be a chaser before learning what you need to know. I'm not trying to be an a-hole, but I studied the basics of weather since I was 12 or 13... I went to University of Asheville and I'm now a Junior meteorology student and I just went on my FIRST chase with the 4/24/2010 outbreak... Did I want to chase before then?? Of course! But I wasn't comfortable with my knowledge of how systems work, of how to read models correctly for severe parameters. So I waited till I felt I had the base knowledge to be a safe chaser and to know what I was looking for... Brian, I would give you the advice to not be a gung-ho chaser till you learn a little more or you may get yourself killed. If you think this season is over, you def. need to spend a little more time learning the weather.

 

[Jason Berner]

You also can't forget that the reliability of models out much more than a few days is weak. The main strength to be drawn out more than a few days is consensus between all the models showing atleast similar patterns. Looking at the GFS say 10 days out and further gives you a snapshot of what the weather may do but is also more than likely a good example of what it will not do. Out that far the whole "Butterfly Effect" idea where a butterfly flaps its wings and halfway across the world there is a storm starts to hold more and more true as the atmosphere is chaotic and only goes to exponentially amplify little perturbations over time.

Long range GFS can help give you the trends in the synoptic pattern but taking it as the truth...or even near truth...or even a semi-near truth, especially about storm whose whole process is governed on the mesoscale, is going to set you up for what is more than likely a lot of unneeded disappointment.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I think this is a classic example of trying to be a chaser before learning what you need to know. I'm not trying to be an a-hole, but I studied the basics of weather since I was 12 or 13... I went to University of Asheville and I'm now a Junior meteorology student and I just went on my FIRST chase with the 4/24/2010 outbreak... Did I want to chase before then?? Of course! But I wasn't comfortable with my knowledge of how systems work, of how to read models correctly for severe parameters. So I waited till I felt I had the base knowledge to be a safe chaser and to know what I was looking for... Brian, I would give you the advice to not be a gung-ho chaser till you learn a little more or you may get yourself killed. If you think this season is over, you def. need to spend a little more time learning the weather.

I think that's taking it a little far. I started chasing after a year of studying up when I was 16 in 2008. I definitely didn't know enough then, but you learn fast when you get out there and do it. Obviously I'm still relatively new, but it's amazing how much you figure out when you really dedicate yourself to this. Of course I think new chasers need to have some idea of what they're doing before they start seriously chasing, but just because someone hasn't been around long enough to understand long term model behaviors doesn't mean he doesn't have the knowledge required to follow a supercell across the plains.

 

[J Holder]

2 words: HELL NO! Give it another 2-3 weeks then see what happens. Average temp here in eastern Ks isn't out of the 70's yet, so patience Grasshopper!

 

[Chris Hayes]

The 18z GFS continues to show possible chase chances for next week starting on wednesday. On a side note, oil fell another 2.79 a barrell today to 71.** a barrell because of the dollar rising since Europe is imploding. Gas prices are down to 2.61

EDIT: The CMC and ECMWF in their latest runs are also showing chase possibilities from wednesday onward.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

I think that's taking it a little far. I started chasing after a year of studying up when I was 16 in 2008. I definitely didn't know enough then, but you learn fast when you get out there and do it. Obviously I'm still relatively new, but it's amazing how much you figure out when you really dedicate yourself to this. Of course I think new chasers need to have some idea of what they're doing before they start seriously chasing, but just because someone hasn't been around long enough to understand long term model behaviors doesn't mean he doesn't have the knowledge required to follow a supercell across the plains.

I completely agree Connor. I began chasing in 97' at the age of 16. I didn't have a clue as to what I was doing. With God's grace and some beginner's luck I survived the early years and saw a few tornadoes along the way. I learned more from personal experience than I ever would have by just reading books and watching videos. Because of my experience I try to be forgiving of "noob" chasers because I was a "noob" once.....of course I don't have a lot of tolorance for idiots, especially ones who go out of their way to put themselves and others in danger because they think they have a right to be there. That is another story....one which has been told many a time on here.

 

[Brian Jalas]

Next Wednesday looks sweet along the Red River near the Wichita Falls area according to the 126 hour GFS!

 

[John Hudson]

Yep the season is over! Every chaser should give up all hope while the great tornadic supercells come back to the central and northern plains as well as the midwest starting later on in the month and lasting into July. June is my favorite time of year to chase because you get more daylight to chase, the storms move a lot slower, and the chaser heards of may scatter.

The northern plains and southern prairies are going to ROCK this year. We're just getting started.


John Hudson
VE4 JTH

 

[Derek Heide]

The northern plains and southern prairies are going to ROCK this year. We're just getting started.


John Hudson
VE4 JTH

Let's hope so, John, especially for us Prairie folk. 2007 was the last real good year. I like what I'm seeing in the pattern right now. Once this ridge moves East, we could be in business! I also like how the crops are looking thus far. Evapotranspiration commence!

 

[Zack Hargrove]

I think that's taking it a little far. I started chasing after a year of studying up when I was 16 in 2008. I definitely didn't know enough then, but you learn fast when you get out there and do it. Obviously I'm still relatively new, but it's amazing how much you figure out when you really dedicate yourself to this. Of course I think new chasers need to have some idea of what they're doing before they start seriously chasing, but just because someone hasn't been around long enough to understand long term model behaviors doesn't mean he doesn't have the knowledge required to follow a supercell across the plains.

You may be right Connor... like I said, I really wasn't trying to sound like an a-hole... I am just a more cautious person by nature than maybe some out there. And I agree it's much easier to not know a whole lot about certain aspects of storms chasing out on the plains... but I'm here in the Southeast where the terrain is rough and you really have to know where the storm's going or you may end up on a road you can't get off of or in some trees you don't want to be in.