Season over?

[Matt Hunt]

Season on the down hill side? We just had a high risk day/tornado outbreak on Monday. How in the world is that on the down hill side? You're in KC? You just had a crazy bow echo go through your area last night. I don't understand why you're saying we're on the down hill side. I certainly hope that's not the case in my area (Indiana), considering we have had 0 tornadoes so far this year! It's been an odd season so far, I would say. Perhaps a late start, but that would only make me believe things will remain active through June, and possibly even into July and August. Around here we usually get more storms in the summer anyway (though historically our biggest tornado months are April and June).

 

[MatthewCarman]

Why worry about the season when there is plenty of other things to do in the meantime? I don't know about you but after seeing Norman get hit by a tornado I know some people can use a break.

Patience is a virtue. There will be more tornadoes. I doubt May is done for and June can be a big month for tornadoes. Even July or the Fall can be big for tornadoes.

 

[John Sickels]

May isn't even half over yet....and June is usually a strong month. Keep the faith.

 

[Dave Kaplow]

The end of the season??? Jeez, c'mon, it's only the 13th of May! There may be a few relatively quiet weeks, but you get that even in the very best of seasons (e.g. 1st half of May 2004). I don't care what the models look like, it just doesn't happen that way, there's always a little action somewhere. Now I admit the GFS looked kinda depressing for a few runs, but right now the trend seems to be back towards at least a more semi-active pattern...

Let's look at what the latest (18z) GFS says the jet stream will be doing 240 hours out:

time sensitive TwisterData link

OK, it ain't perfect, it's way north of where we'd like it to be, but it's 240 hours out, fer cryin' out loud, and, well... I'm sorry, but this simply IS NOT A DEATH RIDGE!

 

[Brian Davidson]

Season on the down hill side? We just had a high risk day/tornado outbreak on Monday. How in the world is that on the down hill side? You're in KC? You just had a crazy bow echo go through your area last night. I don't understand why you're saying we're on the down hill side. I certainly hope that's not the case in my area (Indiana), considering we have had 0 tornadoes so far this year! It's been an odd season so far, I would say. Perhaps a late start, but that would only make me believe things will remain active through June, and possibly even into July and August. Around here we usually get more storms in the summer anyway (though historically our biggest tornado months are April and June).

a bow echo that was a night and didn't do anything

 

[Jason Berner]

Historically, May is the best tornado month followed very closely by June. To say its over (as in there will be little to no severe weather the rest of the summer...especially June) would be a huge overstatement. The fact that the biggest outbreak to date this season isn't even a week old along with the weaking el nino lend me to think that the season may just be working a few weeks later than normal but I can't imagine there being little to no other outbreaks within to the next month and a half.

 

[Fred Dearborn]

It's not over till June 30th.As matter of fact,we could see activity into July in the central/northern plains and to the east.I think our weather pattern is just a tad behind with the calendar.I see June being more active and with slower storm movement.Monday was our fifth chase for the year and looking forward to the slow stuff.

 

[Michael King]

I'm from Australia so take what I say with 'a grain of salt' (maybe just an Aussie expression!). It seems to have been colder than normal in the US this winter, leading up to the storm season, and the quick moving early spring storms seem to have dominated so far. Maybe the peak has just been delayed and late May - June will throw up something big, with more slow moving storms making their presence felt, as the season warms up, in more ways than one. I know in Australia, in our storm season just past, the normal prime months of November-December were awful, but January to March saw a bumper season in the state of Victoria, so the lesson from that is you can have a good year, but sometimes it comes after the normal peak.

Watching with interest from downunder.

 

[Randall Cooper]

a bow echo that was a night and didn't do anything

Didnt do anything? Do you even pay attention to the local news?! That bow echo caused significant wind damage in Olathe, Gardner, and just south of Plattsburg, and you call that nothing? Wow. Not trying to be a jerk, but maybe you should pay attention just alittle bit more if you're so interested in spotting/chasing storms.

 

[Nathan Withrow]

The season has been great in many area's of Tornado Alley, and in Dixie Alley. I think June and July there will be more good storms to chase. I haven't got anything good since early April as far as good storm footage which was only lightning, but I do believe the season did get a late start. But it has been crazy in the heart of Tornado Alley this week. So the season is here to stay for awhile. I look forward to it. I may have not seen anything in my area yet as far as good storms to film, but that will change soon. I even like storms in August. April, May, June, July, and August all have been good months for me.

 

[Randall Cooper]

Honestly, I like June way better, Thats when all the setups shift farther north like KS, NE, SD, ND. Personally I love chasing in the Central and Northern Plains because that is where the storms yield the best structure shots of the year, at least thats how it was with me last year. As far as this "ridge" goes, I think we'll have a little down time, which is ok by me, since I have been fortunate enough to chase just about every event there has been this season so far, putting over 10,000 miles on the car so far. So Im ready for a little down time for a week or 2

 

[MatthewCarman]

I am going to see Iron Man 2 tommorow. Life is great and I am going to enjoy it with or without storms.

Hard to say the season is over when OK was hit by tornadoes last night and there is the possibility of more severe weather for OK/KS on Saturday.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

I am going to see Iron Man 2 tommorow. Life is great and I am going to enjoy it with or without storms.

Hard to say the season is over when OK was hit by tornadoes last night and there is the possibility of more severe weather for OK/KS on Saturday.

Dude, we get it. Your life is good with or without storms. This thread wasn't started to say that without storms to chase life wasn't worth living, it was started to point out that the long range models look dismal at best for the next couple of weeks. Have fun at the movie, I'll be busy editing tornado footage

 

[Paul Stofer]

I know the season has been delayed but from what Im reading, the most of the storms this year will be in the SE states. Is Missouri expected to get anything? I know its impossible to say or predict. I just dont want to drive 10 hours to see anything

thats storm chasing.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

thats storm chasing.

Amen.

My chasecation starts this weekend and runs through the end of June. I see plenty of opportunity in south Texas this weekend, and the GFS has a piece of energy ejecting the middle of next week and offering the potential for a caprock play in the TX panhandle. Never mind over, this season isn't even slowing down that much yet, at least for me. IMO, if you view the entire Great Plains as your chasing territory, it usually isn't too terribly difficult to have good chases every now and then.