Season over?

[Mikey Gribble]

I wonder how long its going to take after this weekends trough passes before we get three new threads popping up about season being over lol. Its like the doom and gloom threads you get at the beginning of each season about how there haven't been and aren't going to be any good setups.
Totally unrelated but I also love the ones where people predict how good the storm season is going to be. You even get the posts about which portion of the plains is going to get the best storms lol. Then you inevitably get the we got a lot of rain in the panhandle this winter talk and drylines are going to be farther west than usual spiel. Apparently evapotranspiration is a major contributor to dryline motion now. As if anybody even had an inkling of an idea about what is actually going to happen.
There is never a shortage of entertaining discussions on ST lol.

 

[Lanny Dean]

I wonder how long its going to take after this weekends trough passes before we get three new threads popping up about season being over lol.

LMBO!!!! No doubt Mikey...ITS OVER ITS OVER!!!! LOL

 

[Mickey Ptak]

Yes this season is finished. So please everyone just stay home this week ok. See you next season.

 

[Eric Bucsela]

OK, on a semi-serious note. Everything looks GREAT about the system this upcoming weekend - moisture, instability, mid-lvl winds, low-lvl jet, surface winds - ....except that naggining little question of the cap. Does look bad to me on Friday, but better Sat, Sun, Mon.

The question is, how bad is TOO bad (relative to the amount of forcing)? I recall a healthy eml forecast for the May 10 outbreak, but obviously that wasn't a problem.

So I haven't got a clue. Seems the more I study this issue, the less I know. Anyone want to weigh in on the differences between this upcoming system and other recent ones?

BTW Mods: Wish we had a sticky thread or something to consolidate these medium range discussions every year. At the moment we have "Season over?", "Models are showing a Chaser's worst Fears", "Long range model speculation", etc.

 

[Chris Hayes]

The way it's looking, this system in the Rockies starting late this week could be with us for a while as the high in the Plains blocks it from advancing for a while. ECMWF keeps it west of the plains through day 10, and has been with that trend for days now, keeping it west. It'll probably mean high plains chase chances for a few days as a dryline takes shape. I'm fine with that as I havent chased much on the high plains. Eventually it'll either break down or move out and give us a more classic type of setup. In theory at least

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Man, the 00z GFS from this evening is crazy from late this weekend through almost every day next week. Moderate to strong flow aloft over the Rockies will, per the GFS, result in a nearly stationary surface low from northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska, with good southerly low-level flow bring deep moisture into the Plains. In addition, depending upon the specific day and location, mid-level flow looks to be 30-50 kts atop the moist warm sector. With a dryline that sloshes back and forth across the western high Plains, it looks like a chaser's dream next week if the GFS verifies, with nearly daily chase potential. The greatest persistent threat area looks to be northeast of the surface low from northeastern Colorado into Nebraska and (for at least a day or two) into the Dakotas. Of course, the dryline may initiate some days, but most of the stronger flow aloft looks to be from I70 northward. A few shortwave troughs look to try to drag a front into the central Plains, but the fronts never really make much southeastward progress.

Of course, this is after the Tues-Weds trough. I wouldn't mind the western US troughing to move a bit farther eastward so we can get better opportunities south of I70. For those chasers who can chase these areas (which, very fortunately, includes VORTEX 2), it looks like a great pattern.

Also, of course, even though the pattern looks quite favorable, extended forecasts can have very high error (obviously, considering the forecasts for mid-late May only a few days ago), so the verification may end up being worse than the forecast.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I agree Jeff, each run gets better. I quickly glanced over it this morning, but it also seems that the cap is weaker and directional shear is better.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

Never fear folks, SPC Day 1 shows 10% tor risk over the TX and OK panhandles today... and a moderate risk ALREADY on Day 2 (30-45% hatched area!), just a little farther east, over W-central OK and northern TX. That high of a risk area in Day 2 pretty much screams "tornado outbreak" to me. Although the SPC discussion acknowledges some disagreement between NAM and GFS about exactly where the greatest risk of severe will be... GFS puts it farther east toward the Arklatex.

Since I don't chase I'm glad it's staying away from me but I'd like the VORTEX2 crew and the chasecationers to at least get their money's worth.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Man, the 00z GFS from this evening is crazy from late this weekend through almost every day next week. ....it looks like a chaser's dream next week if the GFS verifies, with nearly daily chase potential.

I noticed the same Jeff! One can only hope it verifies to some degree. My chase partner flies in on the 25th, and we hit the road on the 26th for 10 days. Model runs like this remind me to try and not to get to excited this far out, but with the progression of the models of late to trend toward better and better chasing potential than say 5-7 days ago, it's hard not to be excited.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Both the GFS and the ECMWF have been very consistent with this weekend/next weeks trough and moisture return.

 

[MatthewCarman]

It is hard to say the season is over when the SPC had a moderate risk of severe storms today and another moderate risk for severe storms tommorow in the plains. Tornadoes look a good possibility. The season is far from over.

 

[Glenn Dixon]

This thread makes me oh so happy! Chasecation begins 22nd, this Saturday.

 

[jshields]

the 12Z GFS continues to show promise for this weekend into next week. extreme instability(3000-5000 j/kg), due to possible 70's dewpoints and highs in the 80s, is forecast to develop by this saturday over most of the central plains and mississippi valley and stay in place through next week. this saturday and sunday looked the best i believe, bc after that the strongest wind fields seem to stay just north of the higher instability next week, so the shear is generally not good. the models are not in good agreement though so we'll see what happens.

 

[rdale]

Would people consider the season "over"? As in are we on the downhill of strong storms?

If you are running a poll - put me down as a "no"

 

[Robert Dewey]

If you are running a poll - put me down as a "no"

I don't know Rob... I think 5/10/2010 was the last high risk we'll see this year.