Record cold likely for Eastern CONUS next week!

[Tim Gonyo]

Folks,

We're on board to experience some of the coldest temperatures to hit the eastern CONUS in the last 10 years.

After looking over data, I believe we will have a short window of -EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA. This will provide us with the right ingredients to usher in progressively colder weather for the next 2 weeks, and the most extreme cold coming around the changing of the months.

What does this mean for cities across the US? At the heart of the cold, the following will be common for the specified cities:

Boston: Highs in the single digits and lows around -10.
New York: Highs in the teens and lows in the single digits below zero.
DC: Highs in the teens to around 20 and lows in the single digits.
Atlanta: Highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits.
Milwaukee: Highs in the single digits BELOW zero and lows around -20.
Chicago: Highs around zero and lows in the teens BELOW zero.

Even the operational GFS has been hinting at this vodka like cold for the last several days now. Take heed people, this cold will end up being talked about as much as the warm period from Dec 15 - Jan 15. Departures could approach -30 in the heart of the cold.

Someone could approach -50F in a remote location of the northern US (below 1500 ft altitute) during this period if everything comes together perfectly.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

ENSEMBLE MAPS:

GFS OP RUN LOOKS FAVORABLE TO A SIGNIFICANT COLD BLAST:

 

[Tim Gonyo]

In January 1994, a similar, significant cold outbreak hit the midwest and progressed to the east coast. Here are maps from that. It is surprisingly close to the one I think is coming next week:

 

[Terrence Cook]

I have never seen most of those maps, but the data paints a very cold picture. I would suppose this all depends on the low/high pressure systems being quite powerful and in the right place?

PS: Neat maps!

 

[David Wolfson]

Record cold -- probably not. But "pretty cold" has looked like a good bet for over a week now. Long enough for me to make several chase trips worth of $$$ from trading natural gas stock. God bless America....

 

[B Ozanne]

When was the last time NYC went below 0F? I don't know the answer but if they could do that in Central Park that would be a big indicator of how cold the air mass is.

The example numbers you listed above are cold, but are they cold enough to beat the arctic outbreak back in January 2003? I think it was 2003, that's when I was walking on ice on Long Island Sound.

 

[rdale]

Models have continually tried to bite on bring a slug of cold air down across central / eastern US for a while now but it's never come to bear... I'm hesitant to go this extreme on a forecast given the recent track record.

 

[Justin Teague]

Record cold -- probably not. But "pretty cold" has looked like a good bet for over a week now. Long enough for me to make several chase trips worth of $$$ from trading natural gas stock. God bless America....

You are a smart man Mr. Wolfson! I've made an investment in a company in that region that is, in my opinion, extremely under-valued.

I'd be a little skeptical of record setting cold at this point, but it is certainly possible. The CPC is mentioning this arctic airmass as being one of the most "expansive in recent years". It will be interesting to see if it pans out.

 

[Glenn Rivers]

If the low hights settled in a bit further west, there would probably be a better chance of a big East-New England snowstorm.

As for the temps, the odd record might fall where a decent cover of low density powder snow combines with clear night skies and light-calm winds. elsewhere things will probably be ordinary @$#&# cold

 

[Robert Dewey]

If this Arctic outbreak verifies as shown by the past several GFS runs, some areas near the Great Lakes are going to pick up a TON of snow over a period of +5 days. They'll be measuring by the foot - this looks like the type of situation that provides +120 inches of snow over a several day period.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/lakeffect/lake0102/b/stormb.html

 

[Scott Olson]

Please keep on topic. If you would like to debate global warming please do so in the approtiate threads.

 

[B Ozanne]

What happened to all that record cold for the northeast? I'm seeing highs in the 20's and lows in the teens for where I live for the next two weeks. Below normal, but no records here.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, the latest GFS run shows the "big momma" artic airmass moving into the central and eastern CONUS starting next weekend, with widespread 850mb temperature <-20C, and 2m temps near 0F all the way to Atlanta by early-mid next week. As Rdale has noted, however, the GFS has seemed aggressive in moving these artic airmasses southward, and I've noticed that the GFS has persistently shown the "big momma" artic airmass moving south of the Canada-USA border in the day 8-10 period for the past 4-5 days, with each run tending to "delay" the intrusion. If this holds true, however, the areas east of the MS River could see a very cold period (near record-cold possible).

The ECMWF does show ~-34C 850mb temps nearing the northern MN border by the end of the week, so there is some support for this artic intrusion.

 

[Alexandre Aguiar]

The 12Z GFS run and also the Brazilian Global Model indicate warmer conditions in the Northeast in the second week of February. Here is the link to NYC meteogram.

http://www.cptec.inpe.br/cgi-bin/pr...po=07404W4041N&data=1&submit.x=27&submit.y=13

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Cold is on its way as forecasted!

The coldest outbreak of arctic air in 10 years is about to blast its way into the Great Lakes area late this weekend and will shift into the Eastern CONUS next week, and moderate a bit as it does.

Indices are becoming inreasingly favorable for this outbreak to happen.

We will enter a -EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA period which will allow a large polar vortex to settle from Hudson Bay to Eastern Canada, south to the Great Lakes. Here are the EPO, NAO, AO, PNA ensembles. Only questionable one is the NAO, as it shows it going slightly positive, but I believe it will stay in negative territory.