Midwest Finally Going To Get Active Again?

[Brandon Sullivan]

Last few days models have been advertising a nice pattern change.. Allowing for warmer temps and nice return flow. Also, this would finally allow systems to penetrate into the area. Im ready for it. Looks like next weekend things could get interesting..

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I agree. The latest 4-8 day highlights most of the Plains for next Saturday April 21. I've been watching this day for a few days now and it looks decent for severe weather along the dryline. We should have good moisture return and a good amount of instability to create a possibly widespread severe weather event from NE to TX.

 

[Travis Carlson]

I agree models are indicating a pattern change after this week toward the start of next week. If you are to believe the GFS things could get very interesting for the Midwest finally which is right on cue for the end of April start of May However, don't put all your eggs in once basket based on how the models have been lately, but definately looks like we all will be keeping an eye on it. Now that the Midwest is finally modifying and moving out of the WAY below normal temp pattern we have been seeing, the models should behave a little better as april returns to near normal. So cross your fingers on this!!!

 

[Adam Atkins]

The gulf took a beating!!! Not only in the form of cold, dry advection, but much of the gulf was cloud covered beneath deep convection from this previous upper level system...and the long term models show much of the gulf with only 60's Td's for the next week and a half... I imagine much of the surface moisture across the plains ahead of the southerly flow upcoming will originate via evapotranspiration because the gulf flow will be meager Deep moisture will be a big problem for the mon-tues shortwave...the fri-sat system might make a 60 Td here and there

 

[Stan Rose]

Adam, nothing wrong with 60s, ill take em with good dynamics. Admittedly i'm biased since i may chase next weekend, but i'm not so sure the "beating" the gulf took will have any profound effect on that system. Gulf temps are where they should be this time of year, and i don't see many clouds out there right now. Even with "only" around 60 deg as a surface dew, the models are still showing healthy CAPE. Moisture return could end up being a problem, but that's to be expected in April. I'm more concerned with the huge uncertainty in the synoptic evolution that far out; models don't even have a decent fix on tomorrow's low let alone next week!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

It's a nice change, but still not what I want to see. There's one big system next weekend, but it's out of here in a hurry and that's it. Of course it's WAY out and things are going to change, I'm just saying it looks more like a one and done thing right now, and not much of a long term stormy pattern.

 

[Dan Cook]

I'm just happy it'll be warmer again.

 

[David Schuttler]

Considering I start my vacation the 21st ( No summertime vacations allowed where I work, including May) , you can bet that the following week will be quiet

 

[Willie Dines]

I was taking a look at the GHCC waether satellite pages a few minutes before coming on here, and I feel that it's worth while keeping an eye out on the E OK/NE TX /W AR area, but I'm very much open minded on this

Reguardless though, I really hope that something will come up, so that you guys can get something to go on the road for, especially since it's been quiet so far this year

Willie

 

[Chris Vagasky]

I wouldn't necessarily say it's been too quiet, it's been a little more active in the southern plains than it has recently.

 

[rdale]

I'm not sure the southern plains are considered "midwest" ;>

It certainly appears like we're finally out of these cold snaps... Local studies show that the three Aprils with extended cold have always been followed by very warm Mays. Nice combination!

- Rob

 

[Kenny Drake]

Yea glad I'm going back to MN the second week in May given these studies. Warm Mays in the midwest would mean hardcore ridging in the southern plains. I don't think the jet stream would push way into Canada in May, so the midwest would be the hot spot for weather given those studies rdale mentioned.

 

[Reed Timmer]

I'm thinking 3 is not statistically significant...

 

[rdale]

Not statistically no - but if you look at the extremes we've been through so far this season, makes sense to think it has some merit...

 

[Melissa Moon]

I agree with Reed....3 isn't enough to say for sure. At this point it could just be coincedence that those 3 cold Aprils all had warm Mays.

I hope it warms up soon! It's been cold here for too long