May Chasing 2008

[Fabian Guerra]

This sucks. The euro model shows an active 3-4 day pattern next week and the gfs shows...well you know what it shows. I'm in chaser purgatory. I need to figure out by tomorrow whether to take my planned chase vacation next week or change it to the following week. Hell, I may be screwed both weeks which would be par for the course this year.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

Lol. I am just sitting here watching the models flip flop.. Still hoping for a nice trough to move in. Get some gulf moisture, and get a good show...

May 23-June 1

Thats my vacation.. Think the ridge should break down and we will be ready for action.

(Cross Fingers)

 

[Chris Hayes]

Lol. I am just sitting here watching the models flip flop.. Still hoping for a nice trough to move in. Get some gulf moisture, and get a good show...

May 23-June 1

Thats my vacation.. Think the ridge should break down and we will be ready for action.

(Cross Fingers)

The models (especially the GFS) do continue flip-flopping on the 2nd half of the month. However the general trend seems to be troughing. Most of the troughing we see on the GFS is positively tilted, but I'll take a positive tilted trough over a ridge any day. Someone in the IRC chat room the other night mentioned about May being April this year, and June possibly being May. This might be the case as we seem to be stuck in an early to mid spring weather pattern. I leave tommorow morning for my chasecation. *crosses fingers*

 

[Scott Weberpal]

At this point the operational GFS seems to be the outlier and I wouldn't trust what it says. Take a look at the spaghetti plots and ensemble means and the patter begins to look much better by May 21. Some of the more recent runs (ECMWF vs GFS) have been total opposite with the GFS showing ridging through the 192 hr period, and the ECMWF showing a rather large trof across the western US. My chase vacation dates are set and there's no use racking my brain over this, but I still find myself checking the medium range models on a daily basis.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

GFS seems to have been fairly consistent in what it thinks for that May 20th on period. Tendency for a sort of little cut off(or almost cut off) and right back to the same east US troughing. The ECMWF has been consistent too, but with a MUCH better look. Give me a consistent ECMWF over the GFS any day.

The 12z ECMWF just came out and still looks phenomenal(at least 3 runs in a row looking similar that I've seen). I was trying to remember the last time a west coast trough looked like that in middle-late May. 2004? I can't think of one time in May 10th through all of June in 2006, nor one time May 6th through all of June 2007. 2005 had a couple decent shots around May 11-12 and again the June 6-10th period, but this just looks better. I almost have to take a double take on this, it seems so foriegn anymore for post 1st week of May.

I'd imagine gulf moisture will be primed by then too. Then given the big trough from hell, we'll still get to deal with all the other things that can go wrong!

 

[Paul Knightley]

As I work as a meteorologist here in the UK, I have access to the full suite of ECMWF data out to 240 hours. Let's just say that dew points by 240 hours are above 70F all the way from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes, with a pronounced dryline through the central Plains every day from next Wednesday to Sat (the furthest the model goes). 850 flow is at times 50 knots plus!
The GFS ensembles keep showing a better chance of a SW trough next week, and the 12Z GFS does, to my eyes, try to trend that way somewhat. I reckon it'll come more into line with the ECMWF over the next few runs.

 

[Joshua Horenstein]

OMG, I had a flight for fri, but just bit the bullet and had it changed to next Wed, didn't see a point to sitting in the plains under clear skys and NW flow. I need that trough to exist and then arrive on thursday!

 

[Cstok]

It all equals complete angst!

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Based on the latest 0z ECWMF and the Ensembles Means..I adjusted my departure date for my chase vacation till next Tuesday evening and should be in position to chase Wednesday afternoon assuming there is something actually out in the Plains to chase.

Looks like an excellent possbility of multiple days of chaseable weather and I expect a banner chase vacation this season.(I'll worry about how I'm going to pay the gas bill after I get back. )

By the way..what is up with the GFS model this year? It's no wonder the dollar is slipping against the Euro! I suspect that I am not the only one who is annoyed by not having full access to the one long range model that is actually useful?

 

[Dan Cook]

Nice:

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I have been watching both the GFS and the ECMWF for the last two weeks, and by my count the ECMWF has had the awesome western US trough for the past 5 consecutive runs ending with 00z today. The only difference has been, where and how strong the lee cyclone will be. The GFS has been showing some tendency to loose the ridging in favor of a trough toward the end of the period. I am currently siding with the ECMWF since it has been so consistent the last few runs, and the GFS just doesn't seem to know what to do with the Pacific energy. Yesterdays 12z run was trending more toward the ECMWF trough and this mornings run cuts off a low over the SW and retrogrades it of the coast. It seems a little late in the year for that to be a realistic solution but then again this whole season seems to be running about a month behind.

All that said I have already cleared my schedule for a multi-day chase and I am considering making motel reservations in Hays for Wednesday night.

 

[Stan Rose]

Im with you, Jason. Could be part wishcast since this may be one of my few ops to chase this year, but i dont see how you can ignore the EC's consistency, the 12Z GFS is starting to trend to the trough solution, as it has hinted at over the past couple days. SPC acknowleges the EC, but says the odds of severe are "quite low". I beg to differ, and im seriously arranging my schedule to accomodate the potential.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Latest 12Z ECMWF remains excellent for later next week..

Some initial thoughts on the setup from DDC:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ks/latest.fxus63.KDDC.html


"A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY
WEDNESDAY. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY BE PROGRESSIVE, BUT WILL LIFT ABRUPTLY
NNE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A FRONT TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ON THE PLAINS OR FRONT
RANGE. THE SFC DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FRONT.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AFTER THURSDAY. WILL THERE BE
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE LONGWAVE POSITION OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES? THIS SEEMS LIKELY, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS TROUGH IS IN QUESTION."

 

[Derek Weston]

GFS has been putting lows in the plain/midwest area with decent moisture the past few days runs... however, most of the lows stink and are lacking. (mid level winds, 850s placement....etc)

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Ed Berry issued a blog update today, in which he released the hounds--literally.

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

Suffice it to say he's going with the ECMWF solution, which looks like a wedgefest for the Plains. We'll be in for quite a ride if it verifies, which I'm gaining confidence in since the ECMWF has been so consistent the last few days.