May Chasing 2008

[Matthew Crowther]

New GFS ensembles are a bit better than the Op run:


By mcrowther



Bottom line that seems to be emerging: there will be a western trough or closed low. It probably will form close enough to at least give us a shot at storms (probably pretty far west in the Plains), but the quality of those storms from a chase perspective is yet to be determined. I think I will take a break from model watching the next couple of days and see what it looks like by early next week.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

I sure don't like the trend I am seeing in the ECMWF with a Mississippi Valley Omega block transitioning to a Rocky Mountain Rex block. Starting to look like Thursday may be the best opportunity. Let's hope the current trends don't continue or we will be needing quite a bit of sun screen for our chases next week.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

May 24th: Violent tornadic supercells in eastern CO. Bank on it!

Haaaaaa! Wouldn't it be funny if it actually does happen.

But the 24th is the first day through this multi day event where the GFS shows the dryline backed into the I25 corridor.

In addition, since the system doesn't really eject out much, the models are likely keeping the moisture a bit too far east each day. We could finally get a significant event along the palmer divide northeast towards Last Chance (a southwest flow event with a more classic supercell or two - we seem to get northwest flow monsoon high precipitation supercells more often but they are practically unchasable with blinding rain and embedded monster hail). Every couple of years it happens.

Thanks Mark Farnik!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gefs/06/images/gefs_50d_120m.gif

This is funny to me. Pretty sure by Thursday with what it wants(yeah this from the 6z run, since I'm leaving soon).

Two days later...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gefs/06/images/gefs_50d_168m.gif


Think the model decided to hammer some down early for memorial day weekend.

 

[Chris Hayes]

12z ECMWF seems to be more friendly than the previous one. Shows a negatively tilted trough coming into the eastern Rockies and western plains Thursday through Saturday. 18z GFS has a more postive or neutral trough sitting over the Rockies.

 

[Derek Weston]

Looks like crap on 0z gfs. Got all of the 850 support and decent dews out ahead of the lower level support.... blocked back west. Yuck. Fri in South Dakota looks nice I guess, but besides that, this system is looking kind of sad according to some of the latest runs here. (not sure the ECMWF is offering much more)

 

[Shane Adams]

I keep seeing this thread and keep thinking the chase day is like tomorrow or something.

 

[Jason McKittrick]

Better take advantage of any May chase opportunities that come along. I am not sure how many others noticed, but the GFS has consistently been forecasting $5/gallon gas by the first week of June. IE tropical system in the GoM.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Ping: anyone with more of a brain than I about this--

D4-D6 looks nice for the Front Range, what happens on Sun/Mon? I'd love to be able to walk this system east to Des Moines / Columbia. Mo-ish through Monday good Lord (and the cap) willing.

 

[Shane Adams]

Ping: anyone with more of a brain than I about this--

D4-D6 looks nice for the Front Range, what happens on Sun/Mon? I'd love to be able to walk this system east to Des Moines / Columbia. Mo-ish through Monday good Lord (and the cap) willing.

All I know is it's Monday and we're talking about stuff for next weekend. With as much as it's changed over this past weekend, I'd wager dollars to dimes what we're currently seeing won't be what actually happens. Sure, there's a huge trough out there and there's gonna be multiple chase days. But where, how concentrated, and how intense? Stay tuned to reality time (Wed evening) for that story.

All I can say is, it's been hard to put much faith in anything so far, because it's all been displaced. I use CoD so I am still waiting on the new WRF updates the rest of you have been pining over the past hour or more, but I wouldn't be at all shocked to see a slight eastward trend with everything and eventually, reality. Regardless, this looks to be the 'po boy's last hurrah, so we're prepared to go camping up the High Plains for a few days if that ends up being the deal. Personally, one day of High Plains stuff would rule, and then it'd be killer to get to move a bit further east for Sat/Sun.

 

[Chris Rice]

Reality? Is there any good places to hang a hammock in the high plains for some camping if it does end up further to the west, I'm a Missouri boy! LOL!

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

All I know is it's Monday and we're talking about stuff for next weekend.

Ain't it beautiful? Fifty years ago we couldn't have pinned this down to this extent, let alone have the luxury of kvetching about how far and how fast the low will move.

Regardless, this looks to be the 'po boy's last hurrah,

I have the luxury of three-day weekends all through May and June, but that doesn't mean I want to go throwing $50s at every Shell station I see I've made one chase so far this year--drove to Sioux City and waved byebye to the stuff in NW IA. But I'm surprised and somewhat relieved that there haven't been any other days that I'd call marginal--not even close.

Personally, one day of High Plains stuff would rule, and then it'd be killer to get to move a bit further east for Sat/Sun.

I'm with ya on that. Eastern Kansas for Saturday means Steak 'n Shake in Topeka, LOL.

 

[Jason Caster]

My Chase vacation (5/25 - 6/1) is rapidly approaching and excitement is doubling with frustration. Obviously an amazing setup is being predicted by the models for 5/22 and 5/23. Like others, work keeps me from starting my vacation early, so there-in-lies my frustration.

I'm looking to Sunday (25th) as my first chase day since I fly in to DFW pretty late the evening of the 24th.

It appears I'm not completely out of luck as a cold front will move over the plains to play with some instability. But I have a feeling it will likely cause too much convection with more of the same HP storms we've been seeing thus far and not much potential for nicely defined/contrasted tornados.

I have a good chunk of time for something to form later in the week. I'm still keeping spirits high for my vacation, especially since this could be my first time to ever see a tornado, or even a severe storm over the plains for that matter.

I'll likely be meeting up with Scott at some point so I'm thankful to have his forecasting experience as an extra advantage on the trip.

Good luck to everyone heading out Tomorrow-Thursday. I'll be monitoring everything from work.

-Jason

 

[Laura Duchesne]

I feel the same way Jason. My chasecation is from the 25th to June 5th. I am not quite sure what to expect this year. At least models point to having moisture in the plains... I just hope there is enough instability to play with and a few dryline set ups. One good thing is we aren't just being limited to one area... we have the entire alley to play in.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Fortunately the ECMWF and GFS are both developing another western trof around the 28th/29th. Not all hope is lost after Sunday.