May Chasing 2008

[Mike Kovalchick]

From Ed Berry's blog site(Dodge City NWS Long range forecaster):

http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/

"Once the tropical convective forcing comes out into the west Pacific, meridionally oriented RWDs are likely, perhaps shifting a trough farther east into the Plains. Given higher latitude blocking forced by zonal mean AAM transport considerations, a cold and wet pattern for much of the lower 48 states focusing on the central states is a forecast option by ~weeks 2-3."

(He is talking about the May 4 through the May 17 time frame)

NCEP forecast for May 5 through May 11(wet & cool) :

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

NCEP forecast for the month of May(Dry in the Plains):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

I'm heading out in the Plains May 15-May 26 time frame..so far...happily...I don't really know what to expect.

 

[Chris Hayes]

The first 2 weeks of May arent too big of a concern for me. I don't leave for my chasint trip till the May 9th-12th time frame. Hopefully by the time we get out there, the pattern will be a bit more favorable.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

On the super long range GFS, once this next trough moves through the end of this week, things stay quiet until about mid May, when a new trough develops out west. It looks to cut off and head south into Mexico almost. Hopefully this pans out cause it looks pretty darn quiet through early May...

 

[Scott McPartland]

I don't know about it being quiet until mid May neccesarily. The 12Z Euro is just out and that paints an interesting picture for the first week or so of May with another nice looking trough moving in around the 4th/5th, and another one waiting in the wings at the end of the run (the 8th).

The 12Z GFS shows a similar 500 set up for the 5th/6th & 8th. Dave Lewison and myself are considering pulling the trigger on our chase trip this coming Saturday, assuming things continue to look good as we progress throughout this week

And if we get lucky, we may not have to do the insane marathon drive from NYC all the way to Kansas this time around! lol. It'd be nice to break up the 1500+ mile drive into two days, sleep is kind of important..

Best of luck to anyone who's chasing this Thursday! I'll definitely be watching the live streaming for sure!

Scott

 

[Paul Knightley]

Can someone please point me in the direction of the super long range GFS please?

 

[Dick McGowan]

Can someone please point me in the direction of the super long range GFS please?

http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm

It's out to 384 on here (16 days).

 

[Paul Knightley]

Ah OK - I've seen a number of locations with 16 day stuff - I was wondering whether it further than that?

 

[Andrea Griffa]

ECMWF is showing in the last three days a nice dry line pattern on may 4-5 and may 6 in Tx Panhandle.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Yea Andrea, the next trough coming though looks better now. Monday might have potential in west Texas.

 

[Dan Cook]

Well it looks like May's off to a decent start after today.

 

[jeremy wilson]

And it may get better Dan. Although theres always that 2 week lull in May at some point. It seems like the middle of May is always slow.

 

[Dan Cook]

And it may get better Dan. Although theres always that 2 week lull in May at some point. It seems like the middle of May is always slow.

Check out the GFS though. Looks like a parade of troughs coming in for the next few weeks.

 

[Mike Kovalchick]

Ed Berry's lastest long range forecast is out. Sounds like the vacation chasers are going to have a good season!
http://weatherclimatelink.blogspot.com/


...high impact weather situation appears probable (above May climatology) during ~ weeks 2-3.....

 

[Shane Adams]

Ah OK - I've seen a number of locations with 16 day stuff - I was wondering whether it further than that?

You'll never need further than that, because anything past 16 days won't be there in 8.

 

[jeremy wilson]

Like always, I wasted alot of my chase funds on March and April, so I hope May has many chaser freindly days so I dont have to be forced to chase in one of my broke periods.

B