May Chasing 2008

[Mikey Gribble]

This IMO has been the worst year for model watching IMO. I've only been chasing for 7 years and I didn't watch the models that closely for the first 2, but I think this season has taken the cake (so far) for poorest model performance. The ECMWF has done OK, but the GFS and NAM have sucked. I can't even bring myself to believe what either is showing 24 hours out, so there's no way I'm believing what they show a week or two out. If I try to post a forecast for several days out on my blog I usually end up looking like an ass when it doesn't verify. I'm about ready to throw in the towel.
The exception to this is when they GFS is consistent in showing a synoptically evident outbreak scenario with a large West coast trough. I'll get on board with those setups a week out, but it doesn't do much good because the devil is in the details and the details haven't been accurate at all this year on the GFS and NAM.

 

[jeremy wilson]

True dat Mikey. Thats why it would be sweet to chase every setup with finances not being an issue. Not just this year but many past years I've seen so many chasers posting pics of killer high contrast tornados in very iffy setups. I've chased every setup in ok. and tx. this year up until this last week and look what happens,tornados in a super marginal oklahoma setup while i'm sitting at home willing nothing to happen!

 

[Andrew Stoller]

This IMO has been the worst year for model watching IMO.

And so, with a grain of salt, I'll post that it looks like a new fairly substantial trough :could: be digging into the west by early next week. GFS shows it, but the ECMWF looks to be 180 degrees opposite with just zonal flow - maybe a much less substantial trough.

 

[Geoff Manikin]

starting to look very favorable for early next week. The 12z GFS blasts the next wave into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening, but it's an outlier. The GFS ensembles strongly favor a deep sfc low somwhere over northwest OK on Tuesday afternoon, and the 12z ECMWF seems to favor that as well. Heck, the ECMWF keeps chances on the southern plains into at least Wednesday as well. Monday has potential for far west TX if moisture can get back in time.

 

[Paul Knightley]

...but there are signs of quite a big ridge developing from the NW after that - ECMWF EPS shows this tending to flatten, and then start to set up a mean west coast trough by around 21st May - just in time for our trip!

 

[Chris Hayes]

...but there are signs of quite a big ridge developing from the NW after that - ECMWF EPS shows this tending to flatten, and then start to set up a mean west coast trough by around 21st May - just in time for our trip!

I hope you're right about that trough. I've been looking at GFS model runs the past couple days and get sick when I see that west coast ridge/east coast trough setting up. We're leaving for chasecation sometime next week. We have 3+ weeks of chasing to do, so I'm sure we'll get at least a few chase days in.

 

[Kevin Myatt]

Dave Carroll and I are headed out leading the Virginia Tech/North Carolina-Asheville group (plus two high school students) on Sunday ... you always know when we're headed out because the jet starts taking a southward plunge out of Canada (4 years in a row!)... fortunately we have at least a couple of decent shots before that happens, as we may well try to intercept Sunday's system in the Tennessee/Ohio Valley on the way west to whatever goes down early-mid week in the southern Plains.

After that, if the models are close to right, it looks like a few (or many) quiet days of northerly/northwesterly flow. Maybe we can get a disturbance across Texas with a stalled front or something like that during that time -- a run here or that has hinted at that. And we'll be hoping the Euro is right in scrapping the western ridge sometime during before Memorial Day!

 

[Dan Cook]

That's a little encouraging at least.

 

[David Draun]

What is that damned Hudson Bay polar vortex doing still around? Tell that persistent annoyance to look at the calendar and go away. One GFS run even has the 540dam thickness line coming as far south as northern Illinois! Geez, is there going to be mid-May snow? I leave for a one-week chase trip on May 24th, and I hope things will seriously be looking different than this.

 

[Cstok]

Ok... so I am liking this better than what I have been seeing lately for the week of the 19th. Of course this could (*will*) all change on the next run, but I wanted to get ebodys perspective.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Looking at that, I'd want to be out 4-8 days following. Looks like a ton of energy is going to spill in from the Pacific. If you're starting your chase vacation after May 22 or so, things look good. Then again, we're talking about the GFS at 240+ hours

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

This pattern is getting amazingly old now. Looks like the Tuesday/Wednesday "system"(strong cold front with it like normal) really plans on smashing the gulf ahead of any future waves. Everytime I see big energy out in the Pacific, that ridge manhandles it into Canada, then it dives se(not good). Half the time these do this they split and shear out as they come out, or the don't amplify till they get just east of the plains. Then they smash the gulf. That Pacific ridge has been a beast. I'm close to writing off May, lol. It'll be nice whenever that pattern changes, but man, it's been so good at only getting dented then quickly transitioning right back.

 

[Cstok]

From the DDC AFD this afternoon:

MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL AND QUIET WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL REGIME WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AND A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY BY 20-21 MAY.



... and there is hope..sort of... for now!

 

[John MacKay]

While I'm going to KS next weekend (16-18), it wasn't for weather, but I would take advantage of it if it did. About two or three days ago, I knew it would be clear the whole weekend (a nice weekend considering it will be at the same time Phoenix may reach 100 the first time this year), so I guess there are no distractions.

Currently, we have a big severe weather day on our hands. I was strongly considering going today until early on Friday, when my options (either time or the $700+ airfares) didn't seem feasible, with some opportunities later. I then look at today's 0800 Day 2 outlook and saw the bullseye around Atlanta. Then, I found every flight on one airline straight to Atlanta was around $270, coming back early on Monday. I really struggled with pulling the trigger. I decided not to, because there should be some setups on weekends later on in the Plains. I just wish the Thursday setups would push themselves to the weekend sometime.

The Memorial Day weekend possibility would be met with higher fares. I'm more likely to go out on 3-day weekends (like the next three will be for me due to early other Friday off and Memorial Day) than 2-day weekends (like this one).

I just hope this encouraging pattern for the last third of the month keeps trending toward the active side. I'd like a chance at a Memorial Day weekend chase.

 

[Laura Duchesne]

Just a gut feeling... since winter I`ve been thinking we will get something real good this year. We are leaving on May 25th for a week and a half. It`s hard to go by long range GFS... but I`ve been going down the last couple of years and we have seen tornadoes during that time period (last week of May, first week of June), but mind you, in `06 we had to do a LOT of driving around... north, south, north, south.... it was nice last year because we played the southern plains a lot.