Major Pattern Change Coming Up ??

[Paul Sherman]

Well i dont like the look of the latest few days runs on the GFS, Seems after next week's fun and games from Monday to Wednesday the Pattern of Western Troughing could be about to come to an end just as most chasecationers hit the Plains at the start of May.

I know it is still 10 days out and a lot can change but any others have any thoughts on wether they think this active pattern we have had since the end of March might be shifting to a ridgier Set-Up

And no this is not a "Future of the chase Season" Thread

Paul S

 

[Chip Redmond]

A ridge does get established over the West Coast for the beginning of the month but it seems to break down with a weak trough by mid-week of the first week of May (5-6) and then has a deeper trough around the same time period digging into the West. Overall, I wouldn't call it a pattern change so much. Trough/ridge pattern continues. The next week or so the systems will build a little further west or so but at the moment, nothing major that would hold severe weather back in May appears to be evident yet.

Chip

 

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for your input Chip! Must admit I had not thought about the last 5 weeks being Trough/Ridge/Trough but you are spot on, Major rounds of Severe have been crossing the US In 3 or so days and then the next 2-3 days have been quiet and ridgier, wont bite the bullet and get the maps out for the zoos and the big texan for my first 10 days at the start of May just yet - Lol

 

[Chip Redmond]

Lets just hope that the models are correct and a big omega blocking pattern or zonal flow pattern DOESN'T set up in the future!

Storm season has started off strong and doesn't look to stop anytime soon!

Chip

 

[Jason Foster]

I took a peek at things too. I'm not worried. While I can't do forecasts that far out, from the talks around the net, I'm not worried yet (if at all). I'm not looking to depart until May 6 so that second week erosion would be perfect timing. Frankly I wouldn't mind some nice slight risk isolated cells in the western territory of the alley to kick things off. I do only have two weeks though (unless more money magically appears or someone is willing to pay my gas/hotel for two+ more weeks). I have to read more, even remember asking this on ST in a past season...is how the fires and dryness in TX is going to affect things. In one way it's a bonus with more particulate in the air. More reading is needed though.

 

[Greg Blumberg]

I wouldn't worry too much about what the GFS is saying that far out. I can't even find good agreement in amplitude (maybe position) in the GEFS 192 hours out. There's way too much spread in the members.

http://www.kwixs.net/ncep/ncep_models.html?m=gefs&h=192&r=12&ma=20a&t=m

It is likely that the GFS's solution will likely change given the many mesoscale alterations and errors from parameterization schemes that will occur with the events that we have setting up into the weekend. Errors will accumulate.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I've been watching the GFS quite carefully run by run and it's been wishy-washy for the last week. I would not read too much into anything beyond 7-8 days max ATM.

W.

 

[Chip Redmond]

I don't usually look that far out either, especially this time of year. However, it is usually pretty good at picking up large scale pattern changes and it doesn't have anything in particularly significant for the next few weeks. I will take some time later perhaps, to look over some global models and a few others, including ENSO patterns that usually influence large scale weather patterns that far out.

Chip

 

[Paul Sherman]

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/sho...r-best-guesses&p=307579&viewfull=1#post307579

Maybe as Adam says in the above the NAO Might be about to slow things down in a big way. GFS Not budging and shows a pretty dead first week of May, anyone know how much the Ski passes are at Breckenridge and wether they still have enough Snow at the start of May - Lol

 

[Steve Smithson]

The only time I'll worry about the pattern is if I hear the words "death ridge" last two weeks of May!!!

Looks at the moment judging by the comments, quieter period into first week of May, difficult to judge at this point thereafter.

Steve Smithson.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

oh no, not the Death Ridge

I hope this does not impact my chasing from May 9th - 25th. This is the only 2 1/2 weeks I'm going to have to be able to chase this year!!!! except for possibly a week in August, and even then I'd have to go up into Minn, ND, SD to get anything.

 

[Rob H]

But we're going to have 300-500 tornadoes in the next two weeks!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/me...-tornadoes-possible-in-the-next-two-weeks.asp

 

[Mark Ellinwood]

Copy/pasting this from my blog I just posted... thoughts?

...a progressive upper-level ridge in the West could bring a lull in the action until another system tries to push it east and break it down going into May 6th.

...let’s see what the models have been doing wrong lately. Past the day+7 lead time, the models have struggled to capture the effects of the soil moisture across the South and Southeast, which has helped to keep temperatures above normal in the Southern Plains, Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic. Conversely, the below normal temperatures in the northern and western areas have come in cooler than forecast, which would lead me to think that the -PNA influence (should it verify on the negative side) and soil moisture could alter the storm track that is presented by the models. While not negating the transient ridge in the West during the first week of May, it could definitely verify weaker than anticipated, which would allow the ridge to break down more at the end of the first week of May when a storm system moves in off of the Pacific. This will hopefully reset the pattern and push us into an active severe weather pattern as we head into the second week of May.

 

[jshields]

But we're going to have 300-500 tornadoes in the next two weeks!

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/me...-tornadoes-possible-in-the-next-two-weeks.asp

Henry at Accuweather is now predicting "an insane outbreak" of 100-200 tornadoes for the 25th-28th of April. I know we have some accuweather guys here, but I will be interested to see if this actually plays out...

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/48697/an-insane-outbreak-of-severe-weather-next-week.asp

 

[Steve Smithson]

Drew,

Don't panic, there isn't any mention of "death ridge" it's just me being paranoid. I'm hearing different reports/views and outcomes, for instance... one of my friends saying repeat of 2006/2009 but two of my very highly regarded chase friends within the chase world saying more Northern Plains chases this year. Unless theres a ridge sitting over the US when I arrive, I'm not gonna worry

Steve Smithson.