Long Range Pattern/Blizzard Potential

[HAltschule]

As I had advertised in my "Long Range" weather thread a week or two ago, it looks like a MAJOR pattern change is still coming. This time, not only the northern 1/4 of the US will see winter-time temperatures, but very cold (arctic air) will sink south all the way through Oklahoma and Northern Texas.

Further, if the right pattern develops as advertised in todays GFS 18z, then a nice Rocky Mountain/Central Plains BLIZZARD will be in progress around 11/22-11/25. The upslope and forcing combined with the very cold air and strong surface winds means big time snows for these areas.

Hello Winter for Most of us in the U.S. Stay tuned!!!

 

[j_scheerer]

Since you're in Albany. When is Southern Ontario/Up State New York going to see snow?

 

[Tony Laubach]

Further, if the right pattern develops as advertised in todays GFS 18z, then a nice Rocky Mountain/Central Plains BLIZZARD will be in progress around 11/22-11/25. The upslope and forcing combined with the very cold air and strong surface winds means big time snows for these areas.

Well since I had to cancel my Vegas trip for those exact dates, its only fitting to see a blizzard. And of course, it's over a major holiday, which blizzards often like to do! I'll be keeping me eyes and ears peeled at the forecasts to see how this shapes up here along the Front Range. I would love to see such an event like March 17-20, 2003.

We shall see!

 

[Joel Wright]

The next two GFS runs since, the 0Z and the 06Z, show that storm not even existing. What a difference a run can make lol.

With it being that far out I wouldn't be suprised to see it suddenly reappear again, and maybe even disappear.

 

[rdale]

That's why you never use the operational models that far out... Ensembles or nothing.

 

[Robert Dewey]

That's why you never use the operational models that far out... Ensembles or nothing.

What are you talking about? The GFS is completely accurate out to 384HRS! :lol:

Okay, maybe not... But it's still fun to watch, dream, and drool...

 

[HAltschule]

Well, clearly the GFS has flip-flopped to a NON-STORM in the Rockies. While the GFS out to 360 hours (or after 120 hours) is usually rather useless, it does give you a broad pattern setup many times. Today's highlight....look at the arctic blast and omega block that keeps the Northeast US VERY cold in 10 days. Ouch. I want my 80's...and I'm not talking about the VH1 show.